For Commissioner Kelly, Reducing Crime Hikes Approval Rating

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In May 2003, Mayor Bloomberg’s job approval numbers hit a low point, with a poll finding that only 32% of New Yorkers rated his performance as good or excellent. At that time, the job approval of the mayor’s police commissioner, Raymond Kelly, was 68%.


In recent years, Mr. Bloomberg’s poll numbers have fluctuated – now, about 55% of New Yorkers approve of the mayor, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released last week – but the ratings for the police commissioner have been consistently high, remaining in the range of 60% to 70%. A Quinnipiac poll released late last week found that 65% of New Yorkers approve of Mr. Kelly’s performance as leader of the New York City Police Department.


That’s higher than an average police commissioner’s rating. A November 2000 poll found, for example, that 19% of New Yorkers had a “favorable” opinion of Mr. Kelly’s predecessor, Bernard Kerik, while 62% said they didn’t know enough about him to comment.


The police commissioner in the Giuliani administration before Mr. Kerik, Howard Safir, received a 31% favorable rating and a 37% unfavorable rating.


Former mayors, business leaders, and other officials said Mr. Kelly’s numbers aren’t the result of a polling fluke. His ratings are high, they said, because of his crime-fighting success – a record that has been featured repeatedly at Mayor Bloomberg’s press conferences and in his campaign advertisements.


According to FBI data released this month, the number of major crimes per capita reported in New York City puts it at 221st place on a list of the 240 cities with populations exceeding 100,000. Last year, 570 murders were recorded, the lowest number since 1963.


“He’s done his usual good job,” Mayor Dinkins said in a telephone interview. “He did a fine job with me. As people now begin to acknowledge, crime started to go down as early as 1991. Crime has always descended when he was in office.”


Mr. Dinkins, the city’s last Democratic mayor, who appointed Mr. Kelly to his first stint as police commissioner in 1992, said it’s very difficult to pinpoint the reasons someone is successful in the administration of criminal justice, but he said Mr. Kelly’s record shows that he has been successful, and he said New Yorkers are aware of that record.


“If tomorrow we were to tell people that the crime statistics have risen greatly and there was a computer error – someone had moved the decimal point in the wrong direction – the same man who looks so good to them today would not look so good,” Mr. Dinkins said. “The numbers reported reflect a decline in crime. People are aware of it. I think it’s as simple as that.”


Another former mayor, Ed Koch, said Mr. Kelly has had more success in reducing crime than was achieved under Mayor Giuliani – a goal some thought was impossible.


“He has brought down crime below what others might have thought would be the irreducible point,” Mayor Koch said. “Of course he has high ratings.”


The president of the Partnership for New York City, Kathryn Wylde, said Mr. Kelly gets some credit among New Yorkers for participating in the initial turnaround of crime in the city. She said he also gets credit for keeping the terrorists at bay after the attacks of September 11, 2001.


“I think people give him a lot of credit for coming in at a moment of great uncertainty, when the Police Department had to reorganize and redeploy its resources to deal with the terrorism issue in a way we never had to do before,” Ms. Wylde said.


She also said Mr. Kelly has been extremely popular in the business community, because of the new lines of communications he has set up, which make the department more accessible.


The public advocate, Betsy Gotbaum, called Mr. Kelly “one of the greatest police commissioners in the history of New York City.”


“The fact that he has continued to bring the crime rate down is an outstanding accomplishment,” she said.


The other Democratic citywide elected official, Comptroller William Thompson Jr., said: “Ray Kelly has shown leadership and an understanding of New York’s diverse neighborhoods. Under his watch, crime has continued to decline. New Yorkers have taken note of that, and that has led to his high numbers.”


A member of the state Board of Regents, Merryl Tisch, who is an unofficial adviser to Mr. Bloomberg, said she thinks Mr. Kelly’s poll numbers are so high because he has “healed” racial tensions in the city.


“There was an undercurrent of racial tensions,” she said. “With Ray Kelly’s style combined with Michael Bloomberg’s style, that’s become less of an issue. That’s terrific, and that’s the way it should be, and that’s a good thing.”


Ordinary New Yorkers also said it seems as though the city is safer.


“It’s safer from, like, 10 years ago, 15 years ago. I just think in general there’s been a lot more things done,” a man who works in real estate, Brad Adams, said. He said it’s not the commissioner but the commissioner’s record that wins the high approval ratings.


A woman who works in retail in SoHo, Karen Morgan, said she’s seen Mr. Kelly in television interviews. She speculated that his popularity might be related to the amount of time he spends on television.


“It’s safer now, plus you see this guy’s face all the time,” she said. “It’s easier to make that association.”


A New York humorist, Andy Borowitz, said Mr. Kelly might be more popular than the mayor and President Bush because “he did not try to build a stadium or invade Iraq.”


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