Political Consequences of Transit Strike Could Be Colossal

If the contract battle between the Metropolitan Transportation Authority and the Transport Workers Union accelerates into an all-out strike, the political ramifications could be considerable.The mayor and the governor are taking different tacks. The mayor has repeatedly cautioned that “no one wins” in a strike. He has threatened strikers with enormous financial penalties. The governor, meanwhile, has been supporting his appointees to the MTA board from the sidelines while traveling outside the state as part of his attempt to rally national support for a possible 2008 presidential bid.Meanwhile, members of the City Council, many of whom rely on union support at election time, are engaged in a muted war with the mayor, arguing that the cards are stacked against the transit workers. Even as council members push for the workers, however, they aren’t exactly encouraging a strike.“This is a matter that affects 7 million people per day. It hits the bottom line of our city and we’re still struggling to recover economically. At the end of the day, the mayor, the governor, and the MTA brass can blame the union all they want,” the council member who heads the transportation committee, John Liu, said. “But if there’s no contract resolution and there is a shutdown, a massive shutdown of transit in this city, everyone will be blamed – the union, the workers will be blamed, but the MTA management, the governor, and the mayor will have to face the music also.”A council member representing Brooklyn, Letitia James, said yesterday: “I just hope that they negotiate fairly, and I hope that it doesn’t result in a strike, and I hope we can come to some sort of compromise before the deadline. It’s going to cripple New York City.”The 2008 mayoral hopefuls aren’t clamoring for a strike, either.While City Comptroller William Thompson and Rep. Anthony Weiner each stood alongside Roger Toussaint, the president of the transit union, at a rally last week, both say they are rooting for a resolution that means the workers do not strike. Mr. Thompson’s office released a statement saying the first day of a transit strike, would cost the city’s businesses $400 million.Mr. Weiner, who came in second in this year’s Democratic mayoral primary, yesterday blamed the MTA for the tense state of the negotiations. Yet he said, “There should not be a strike, and I hope that there is not a strike.”While Mr. Weiner said the negotiations are contentious, he said New Yorkers aren’t acting quite as hostile as they have in past years.“We haven’t had a lot of our ‘shut up’ moments this time,” he said, referring to a 2002 episode when Mr. Bloomberg warned against a walkout and Mr. Toussaint said publicly that the mayor “should shut up.”The only group that appears to be fully behind Mr. Toussaint and his threatened strike are other union leaders, who stood with the union head as the original midnight deadline approached on Thursday.A professor of public affairs at Baruch College, David Birdsell, said because of pattern bargaining, many union leaders could benefit if the subway and bus workers are able to negotiate a favorable contract, even though they work for a state authority and not the city.Mr. Birdsell said it’s too soon to know who might win and lose politically from the transit situation, but he said the MTA has made a number of mistakes.“The overwhelming liability for the MTA, and by extension, the governor, is an extraordinarily ham-fisted negotiating posture,” he said. “The issuance of the rider rebate in the midst of the negotiating season was just extraordinarily clumsy.”He said the MTA could have won more support from the public had it explained its position publicly.The director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, Maurice Carroll, said he doesn’t think the mayor or the governor will suffer politically as a result of the transit negotiations, unless they lead to “some sort of great, prolonged strike,” a situation he deemed “very unlikely.”As for mayoral hopefuls like Mr. Thompson and Mr. Weiner, Mr. Carroll said even if they said something politically unpopular now, few voters may remember by November 2008. He said both were being politically savvy by rallying with the union.But, Mr. Carroll said, in the event of a strike, the unions might harm themselves more than they harm the politicians: “I’m inclined to think that the union might be in for more political trouble than the politicians. It’s not an unreasonable offer … and municipal labor is not as beloved as it used to be.”

Political Consequences of Transit Strike Could Be Colossal

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