Palestinian Election Problems

This article is from the archive of The New York Sun before the launch of its new website in 2022. The Sun has neither altered nor updated such articles but will seek to correct any errors, mis-categorizations or other problems introduced during transfer.

The New York Sun

It is beginning to look as if the Palestinian elections scheduled for January, on which great hopes have been pinned for the much talked-about democraticization of Palestinian political life, may never take place.


In fact, no one, except possibly Hamas, really wants them to. The government of the Palestinian Authority, headed by President Mahmoud Abbas, certainly does not. Its ruling party, the Fatah, which Mr. Abbas inherited from Yasser Arafat, is in disarray, split into numerous factions that have taken to shooting at each other when bored with shouting at each other. Mr. Abbas fears, if not a Hamas victory in elections, at least a strong showing on its part that will force him to share power with it.


The United States and Israel are not eager for this to happen, either. Nor are they comfortable with Hamas’ even being allowed to run in elections while continuing to exist as an armed organization that only two weeks ago fired dozens of rockets into Israel. Political parties with private militias that can be freely sent on terrorist missions are not part of the Bush or Sharon governments’ vision of a democratic Palestine.


In the final analysis, indeed, President Bush and Secretary of State Rice had little choice but to back the Israeli demand that Hamas be disarmed before being legitimized politically, if for no other reason that they may soon have to cross the same bridge in Iraq. When and if Iraqi parliamentary elections are held, the United States can hardly insist that the parties running in them be demilitarized if it is not prepared to take the same stand with the Palestinians.


And yet everyone, the Palestinian Authority, the United States, and Israel, knows perfectly well that there is not the slightest possibility of disarming Hamas before January. In fact, there is not the slightest possibility of disarming it after January, either. It is doubtful whether the Palestinian Authority, in its present state, has the power to win a military confrontation with Hamas, and even if it does, it lacks the will to fight a Palestinian civil war.


The time when Hamas could have been disarmed without such a war has long since passed. The golden opportunity was in 1993-94, when Arafat’s PLO, to which Hamas never belonged, took control of most of the Gaza Strip and part of the West Bank under the Oslo agreement. Arafat and the PLO were then at the height of their popularity with the Palestinian public, and had Hamas been told to disarm or else, it would have had either to do so or be quickly crushed.


But Arafat never wanted Hamas disarmed. On the contrary, he thought that a Palestinian terrorist organization outside the framework of the PLO would be extremely useful, since it would enable terror attacks against Israel to continue without the Palestinian Authority having to take responsibility. Hamas, he thought, could be turned on an off like a faucet with himself as the indispensable plumber who would be begged to fix it. He either did not calculate or did not care that the day would come when the plumbing could only be fixed by tearing down all the walls.


Arafat’s failure to move against Hamas has often been compared to David Ben-Gurion’s bold decision to risk a Jewish civil war in ordering the dissolution of the Irgun, the right-wing former anti-British underground organization headed by Menachem Begin, in June 1948, a month after the establishment of the State of Israel. Until then, the Irgun had fought in Israel’s war of independence as a separate organization, distinct from the fledgling Israeli army. Ben-Gurion took advantage of the so-called Altalena affair, the Irgun’s attempt to import arms from Europe for its own use without the government of Israel’s agreement, in order to issue it an ultimatum that it knuckle under to.


And yet Ben-Gurion, it must be said, had one thing working to his advantage that Yasser Arafat never had with the Hamas – namely, Menachem Begin himself. Begin, despite his penchant for extreme oratory, was a leader committed to democratic values who put national interests first. In confronting him with an either/or situation, Ben-Gurion had reason to believe he would act responsibly.


Hamas, on the other hand, has no commitment to democracy at all other than as a means to advancing its own cause, which is that not only of eradicating Israel, but of joining hands with other radical Islamic groups to spread militant Islam. When one wonders whether anyone really has an interest in Palestinian elections in January, therefore, this includes Hamas too.


From the very beginning, Hamas was happy with the deal Arafat offered it because, just as he did not want to be held responsible for terror, it did not want to be held responsible for the corruption and chaos of Palestinian self-rule. This continues to be true today. Precisely because Hamas is stronger than it has ever been before, it realizes that participation in the electoral process will compel it to participate in the post-electoral governing of the Palestinian people. Many of its leaders would prefer to keep their political virginity by refraining from this.


Palestinian elections, then, are a problem for everyone. Fortunately, it is one with a solution. Let the United States and Israel proclaim that these elections will be unacceptable as long as an armed Hamas participates in them; let Hamas refuse to disarm; let Mr. Abbas declare that he will neither force it to do so nor hold elections without it, and presto! – elections are called off to the public dismay and private relief of just about everyone. Meanwhile, Palestinian democratization will continue to be a good subject for many more conversations to come.



Mr. Halkin is a contributing editor of The New York Sun.


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