Poland Puts the Brakes on Arms for Ukraine, but the Train Wreck Is European Unity

Getting Europeans to agree on anything these days is about as easy as getting Democrats and Republicans to sing a duet about apple trees and honey bees. Although it was brewing for some time, Poland’s decision to stop transferring weapons to Ukraine underscores the badly fractured state of unity in the European Union on a host of issues, from the war in Ukraine to energy to how to stop a tidal wave of illegal immigration. Poland has weighed in on that too, but Prime Minister Morawiecki’s announcement Wednesday that Warsaw is “no longer transferring weapons to Ukraine because we are now arming Poland with more modern weapons” looms particularly large as another summer of war draws to a close with big questions about what winter portends. The Polish decision was a reaction to escalating tensions between Poland and Ukraine over grain imports. Poland as well as Slovakia and Hungary have refused to drop an import ban on Ukrainian grain despite the European Commission not prolonging it. The countries, all members of the EU, say that they are simply defending their own grain growers against falling demand and prices that harmed the domestic markets over the last year.That, obviously, doesn’t please Kyiv much. At the UN General Assembly, Presiden Zelensky said, “Some in Europe play out solidarity in political theater, making the grain supply into a thriller,” adding, “Those countries seem to play their own role while they actually help set the stage for the Moscow actor.”Poland’s foreign ministry summoned Ukraine’s ambassador, Vasyl Zvarych, following Mr. Zelensky’s statements, but the stage was set for friction before anybody even took to the floor at Turtle Bay. That’s because Ukraine had earlier sued Poland, Slovakia, and Hungary at the Geneva-based World Trade Organization. And Ukraine’s prime minister, Denys Shmyhal, stated via Telegram that Kyiv would impose retaliatory import restrictions on various goods from Poland and Hungary if they did not lift their unilateral bans.Relations between Ukraine and Hungary are already famously frosty, but the situation with Poland is far more troubling. Both countries share borders with Ukraine, but Poland’s is longer by far. In terms of the largest donors of military aid to Ukraine, Poland has committed the third highest amount, behind only America and Britain. The country has previously committed the equivalent of an estimated $1.81 billion in security assistance to Ukraine. It was not immediately clear how Mr. Morawiecki’s announcement would affect weapons transfers already under way, nor does it seem likely that transfers carried out under the aegis of NATO will be affected. He is not the only prominent Polish politician to squawk following the discord over grain imports. A former prime minister and current member of Poland’s ruling Law and Justice party, Beata Szydło, said on X, “President of Ukraine is complaining but for what? The transit corridor existed, and it still exists. Unfortunately, it was the Ukrainian oligarchs who abused the trust and flooded the markets of EU countries with their grain instead of transporting it further.”President Duda went even further, stating, “Anyone who has ever been rescuing a drowning person knows that a drowning person is incredibly dangerous and that it can pull you into the deep” and saying Poland “must act to protect itself from harm to us because if a drowning person causes harm and drowns us, he will not receive help.”Yet Mr. Zelensky is correct in stating that the dissension simply plays into the hands of the Kremlin. If erstwhile European partners cannot even agree about apples and potatoes, how can they be counted on to help kick Russia out of Ukraine? The embargo to which Mr. Shmyhal alluded will likely be imposed soon on apples, cabbage, onions, and potatoes. That is not as innocuous as it sounds because, according to the Polish Association of Fruit Growers, Ukraine is currently the fourth biggest importer of Polish apples, and apple growers are already suffering from lower demand for their crops.The EU response to this mess has been flimsy at best, with Spain’s agriculture minister saying that unilateral ban by any European Union member state on Ukrainian grain imports seemed illegal and whispers from France that European “solidarity” is at stake. Yet the biggest bugbear for European solidarity is not Ukrainian grain but an overflow of migrants from North Africa, and in this touchy arena too Poland is feeling its oats. In recent days thousands of illegal migrants setting off from Tunisia in small boats have overwhelmed the tiny Italian island of Lampedusa in the Mediterranean Sea. More than 7,000 migrants came ashore in just a week, prompting island authorities to declare a state of emergency. The European Commission’s peripatetic president, Ursula von der Leyen, even flew to the island to announce an EU action plan alongside Prime Minister Meloni. That plan, though, entails transferring the migrants to member states around the EU, and that has countries like Poland up in arms. “Nobody can force us to do this,” the deputy interior minister, Maciej Wasik, told Polish Radio. He added that Poland “will act in such a way as not to accept immigrants. The EU is preparing to introduce such coercion. That is why we are holding a referendum so that Poles can have their say.”The French interior minister, Gérald Darmanin, said in no uncertain terms that France will not accept migrants from Lampedusa, but the tone of discontent is registering higher in Poland. That may be because Poland has already taken in millions of refugees from neighboring Ukraine since the Russian invasion. But the fault lines are only growing, and they threaten to reduce Brussels to near total irrelevance as they do. Countries like Turkey and even Ukraine might start to wonder if joining the EU is really worth the effort. The Polish referendum, in the meantime, is scheduled for October 15.

Poland Puts the Brakes on Arms for Ukraine, but the Train Wreck Is European Unity

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