Putin Shows Weakness and Ukraine Strikes Back

Following considerable speculation among strategic analysts that Vladimir Putin might use Russia’s annual Victory Day celebration to up the ante of his belligerence — some were predicting that he might use that occasion to issue a formal declaration of war against Ukraine and call for a general mobilization of Russia’s military-age population — May 9 came and went with a relative whimper more than a bang. The Russian Air Force’s traditional flyover was said to be canceled because of “adverse weather”: Never mind the tally of more than 200 Russian combat aircraft reported destroyed in the skies over Ukraine.No less underwhelming was the speech Mr. Putin delivered from the Lobyone Mesto platform overlooking Red Square. It was little more than a rehash of Orwellian falsehoods and distortions. Thus Mr. Putin’s unprovoked war of aggression was magically transformed into a defensive war of preemption designed to nip in the bud a dastardly attack on Mother Russia. “No one will forget the lessons of the Great Patriotic War,” he said, using Russia’s name for World War II, “and there will be no place for hangmen, executioners, and Nazis.”Some would say, of course, that the exception is the Russian army.Blowback From Putin’s BlunderThe scope of Mr. Putin’s incompetence extends beyond the failures of his military and into the domain of diplomacy. One of the primary casus belli he presented as justification for his war of aggression was to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO. Yet, like a King Midas in reverse, Mr. Putin’s unprovoked belligerence has driven the long-neutral nations Sweden and Finland into NATO’s welcoming embrace. The Finnish government has signaled full speed ahead, with President Niiinisto and Prime Minister Marin declaring: “Finland must apply for NATO membership without delay.”The politics of Swedish NATO membership are more nuanced, but the Economist reports that Prime Minister Andersson also favors joining the alliance.Thus in one fell swoop, Mr. Putin has accomplished what seemed inconceivable throughout a half-century of the Cold War: bringing nations with lengthy histories of neutrality into the strategic orbit of the West. Even Switzerland is now flirting with the prospect of military cooperation with NATO, though that would still fall short of formal membership in the alliance.Mr. Putin has responded to these diplomatic demarches in a manner that is true to type. He warned that Russia would take “military-technical steps” in response to Finland joining NATO.In view of Russia’s dismal battlefield performance, it’s doubtful this statement is causing Finnish national defense officials to burn the midnight oil in Helsinki.The Buck Doesn’t Stop HereAs the disasters from Mr. Putin’s invasion of Ukraine continue to mount, he has gone into classic despot mode by seeking scapegoats to sacrifice and blame to shift. Reports of widespread firings and even arrests within Russia’s FSB intelligence agency — the successor to the KGB — have been circulating for weeks.Now, a retired British general, Sir Richard Barrons, reports in a London Times podcast how the balance of power within Russia’s intelligence community has shifted to the GRU, Russia’s military intelligence agency, from the FSB. The FSB/KGB and GRU have long been bitter bureaucratic rivals.The Tide TurnsAfter the seeming failure of Russia’s much-touted new offensive in the Donbas region, the Ukrainian army has opened a counteroffensive in the Izium and Kharkiv sectors of Eastern Ukraine. This major shift in the dynamic of the war signifies that a high-water mark of Mr. Putin’s invasion has been reached and Russian forces are now on the strategic defensive.Vigorous Ukrainian counterattacks have forced Russian units to retreat from Kharkiv and have cleared the west bank of the Pechenihy Reservoir to within five kilometers of the Russian border around the village of Starytsya.Even more strategically significant are the fierce battles that are under way in the Izium sector, where coordinated Ukrainian counterattacks threaten to surround more than 20,000 Russian troops. The Russians south of Izium are concentrated in a narrow salient that marks the extent of the territory they managed to capture during their Donbas offensive last month. If the Ukrainians succeed in forcing such a large number of Russians to surrender, the military and political reverberations would be seismic.The prospects of Ukrainian operational success have been substantially heightened by the arrival of new weapons systems supplied by America and European nations. The most recent aid package approved by the Biden administration included more than 400 attack drones and 90 M-777 howitzers with 184,000 rounds of 155mm ammunition.Those guns are now in action.

Putin Shows Weakness and Ukraine Strikes Back

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