Putin Wants an Off-Ramp, but Only to a Bigger War: Report

It is likely that, despite some indications to the contrary, President Putin in the coming months will seek only to enlarge the war against Ukraine instead of looking for an off-ramp, a new report says. That is in large part due to Russia’s new mobilization law, which according to the Financial Times is part of the country’s broader effort to maximize firepower and erode Western support for Kyiv. Following a persistent if as yet indecisive Ukrainian counteroffensive and a trio of weekend drone strikes against Moscow, one of which resulted in the temporary closure of an international airport, a new Russian law could at first glance seem inconsequential, but that does not appear to be the case.According to the head of the Duma’s defense committee, Andrei Kartapolov, “These amendments are written for a big war and general mobilization. And the smell of this big war can already be scented.”That assertion stands in stark contradiction not only to Mr. Putin’s comments over the weekend about an African proposal as a possible way to defuse the ongoing conflict: It also undermines the Western narrative that the Ukrainian military’s slow campaign to retake territory seized by the Russians and drone incursions into Russian territory will deter the Kremlin. Mr. Putin persists in branding the Ukrainians as “neo-Nazis” and President Zelensky calls the Russians “terrorists,” so even on the linguistic front, none of this is looking good: “We must be aware that, just as last year, Russian terrorists can still attack our energy sector and critical facilities this winter,” Mr. Zelensky said over the weekend. Russian manpower is estimated to be three to four times greater than Ukraine’s, and it can be mobilized at any time: The new law is meant to streamline that process and also to help avoid an official mobilization. Henceforth and without fanfare the Kremlin can issue draft notices electronically with free rein. Once a notice has been issued, Russian borders would be immediately closed to the draftee. The Kremlin would ensure that an exodus of young fighting men scrambling to avoid conscription such as happened last year is now a thing of the past. Worse, the upper age limit for compulsory military service will be raised to 30 from 27. In the meantime, Mr. Putin appears to be determined to choke off the already battered Ukrainian economy. The Financial Times reports that largely thanks to its military factories working around the clock, the Russian economy is, despite sanctions, expected to see modest growth this year. The Russian strongman is apparently proud of that. Speaking at an annual naval parade at St. Petersburg over the weekend, he said that Russia “is confidently implementing the large-scale tasks of the national maritime policy, consistently increasing the power of its fleet. This year alone, 30 ships of different classes are replenishing its composition.”Some of the ships that he said have already taken up combat duty, presumably in the Black Sea, are new missile-laden Merkury corvettes. The Russian business newspaper Kommersant reported that heads of the African countries who participated in the Russia-Africa summit were invited to this year’s parade.Another arrow in the Kremlin’s quiver is that critical components such as microchips needed for the defense industry are arriving in Russia nonstop via Communist China and other unspecified sources.Despite Secretary Blinken’s pro forma policy of slapping sanctions on adversaries in the hope of deterring unruly behavior, the Kremlin’s war chest is, the FT reports, “still overflowing with cash, thanks to last year’s windfall energy profits and the adaptability of Russian commodities exporters, who have found new customers” for their goods and settle their payments mainly in yuan.Mr. Putin already has multiple luxury homes, such as one near the Black Sea shore that a Kremlin critic, Alexei Navalny, has exposed. So it is less than surprising that a good chunk of the Kremlin’s cash is being used to grease the Russian military machine to keep arms production going at a fast clip.As that is happening away from the headlines, the airstrikes against Ukrainian cities go on. As with Mariupol, Russia wants to make life for Ukrainian soldiers and civilians as difficult as possible. It wants to hobble reconstruction efforts too. So far, in Mariupol at least, that tactic has worked. So Mr. Putin will continue to prosecute those dark efforts as ruthlessly as possible. There is more. Without Western support Ukraine’s budget would collapse and Mr. Putin knows it. Little wonder, then, that he broke off the grain deal. Yet did the West bank on Russia bombing Ukrainian grain silos with such renewed zeal? Such is the path of destruction Mr. Putin is almost gleefully taking. He is also stirring up trouble on the perimeter of Ukraine. Speaking to reporters after the conclusion of the Russia-Africa summit, Mr. Putin made an extraordinary claim: “We see a threat to the national security of Ukraine, but this is not our business.” He was referring to a recent spurious claim by the Belarusian president, Aleksandr Lukashenko, that the West seeks to have portions of western Ukraine transferred to Poland. There are now a certain number of Russian mercenaries parked in Belarus, raising hackles at Warsaw. Belarus shares long borders with both Poland and Ukraine. Summer fire season in Europe, it appears, is far from over.

Putin Wants an Off-Ramp, but Only to a Bigger War: Report

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