Russia, Iran’s Big Ally, Is Expected To Watch Israel’s Attacks From the Sidelines

Stretched thin in Ukraine, Russia is unlikely to do more than protest Israel’s attack on Iran. Isolated from the Western world, the planet’s two most sanctioned big countries became best friends this year. In January, Russia and Iran signed a 20-year strategic partnership. It included joint military drills, military technological cooperation, and cooperation to deal with military threats. Last month, a free trade pact between Russia and Iran went into effect. Last week, Russia signed an agreement to build eight nuclear power reactors in Iran.Now, with its close ally under military attack, Russia is expected to do little more than protest. The strategic partnership agreement, ratified last month by Iran’s parliament, does not include a mutual defense clause.Over the last 18 months, protest is all that Russia did when Israel savaged Iran’s “Axis of Resistance” — Hamas, Hezbollah, and the regime of the Syrian president, Bashar al-Assad.In recent years, Russia and Iran were the odd couple, forced into each other’s arms by Western shunning. During 500 years of diplomatic relations, Russia and Persia fought five major wars. Sharing only the Caspian Sea, the two opposing empires occasionally came together to block Turkey.Over the last three years, as Western economic sanctions narrowed options, the two countries opened banking links and transportation corridors, prompting a booming north-south trade. Russia became the largest foreign investor nation in Iran. Gazprom and Lukoil invested heavily in developing Iranian oil and gas projects. Prior to President Putin’s full-bore attack on Ukraine, in 2022, Iran was to purchase $10 billion worth of helicopters, planes, and artillery systems.After Russia’s war on Ukraine stumbled, Iran became a major supplier of drones and drone technology to Russia.In return, a Russian nationalist propagandist, Sergey Mardan, called last week for transferring nuclear technology to Iran, Russia’s “military ally.” Russia, China, and Iran conducted joint military exercises and voted together in the United Nations.As tensions rose on Wednesday, Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, told reporters at Moscow that Russia could defuse the situation by accepting Iran’s “excess” enriched uranium for conversion in Russia into fuel for civilian nuclear power plants. The veteran Russian diplomat offered: “We are ready to provide assistance to both Washington and Tehran.” Earlier, Mr. Putin told President Trump in a phone call last week that he was ready to use Russia’s close partnership with Iran to help advance talks. However, yesterday, the International Atomic Energy Agency’s board of governors announced that Iran was violating its safeguard obligations under the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty and was systematically running a clandestine nuclear weapons program.Iran’s only operating nuclear power plant, Bushehr on the Persian Gulf, uses Russian fuel that Russia then takes back when it is spent. This reduces proliferation risk. Using this model, Russia signed an agreement Monday with the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran to construct eight nuclear power plants, including four in Busheh. In Friday’s “decapitation” strikes, Israel killed at least six Iranian nuclear scientists and high officials, including Fereydoun Abbasi-Davane, former head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization. Now, Russia’s offer seems moot. Israeli bombs have reduced Iran’s enrichment facilities to smoking ruins. Russian denunciations in the UN Security Council are expected. But with Russia’s back to the wall in Ukraine, Tehran may soon see that its new “strategic partnership” signed last January in the Kremlin by Mr. Putin and President Pezeshkian is not much help. In Ukraine yesterday, the total tally of Russian military casualties in the war topped 1 million. This is far more than the total of losses that Moscow suffered in all wars it has fought since World War II. Under these constraints, the Kremlin did not spare men or materiel last December to defend its ally of half a century — the al-Assad clan in Syria.While Moscow is expected to watch from the sidelines, Russian military exports take another reputational hit. Since the 1978 Iranian Revolution, the nation’s military shifted largely to Russian arms, from mostly American ones. In today’s conflict, Iran’s Russia-made S-300 air defense is failing to defend against Israeli jets and cruise missiles. In aerial combat, Iran’s MiG-24 and Su-24 war jets have proved incapable of slowing the onslaught of Israeli jets and missiles. Iran had announced that it would buy Su-35 fighter jets, but no deliveries have been made. After three years of war in Ukraine, the only weapon Russia has to spare is hot air.With Russia powerless to intervene, it is receiving a big benefit: a rise in the price of oil, a key source of government budget revenue for Russia. In response to Israel’s attack oil prices surged by as much as 13 percent, their biggest intraday jump since Mr. Putin launched his full-bore invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022. By this morning, prices were up about 6 percent, a financial shot in the arm for Russia.

Russia, Iran’s Big Ally, Is Expected To Watch Israel’s Attacks From the Sidelines

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