Russia’s ‘Partial’ Mobilization Will See More Than a Million Men Shipping to Ukraine: Report

In stark contradiction to claims by the Russian defense minister that 300,000 reserve troops will be called up as part of a “partial mobilization,” a new report claims that Moscow intends to conscript a staggering 1.2 million people to advance the Kremlin’s war aims in Ukraine. That claim was made by a Russian news website that is published in Latvia because it is banned in Russia. The site, Meduza, is known for having credible sources in both the Kremlin and Russian government ministries, and it is one of the latter that reportedly supplied the figure. Meduza corroborated the shock claim by mentioning another report, in the Russian online newspaper Novaya Gazeta, that said a source close to the Russian president evoked a “classified paragraph” that “allows for up to one million draftees.” President Putin’s press secretary, Dmitry Peskov, has denied the report. Mr. Putin’s announcement Wednesday of a partial mobilization sent many Russians into a tailspin, with tickets abroad selling out fast — often at exorbitant prices — and long lines of vehicular traffic forming near border crossings with Finland, Georgia, and even Mongolia. At least one of those countries, Finland, will be reducing the number of visas it issues to Russians as a direct consequence of the border chaos unleashed by the surprise mobilization drive.Should 300,000 fresh conscripts be bound for Ukraine in the immediate future, it will put strains on Russia’s already creaky military. If that figure rises to more than a million, who knows what will happen. Beyond the obvious implications for Ukraine — chief among which is that there will likely be no quick end to the war despite a string of successful counter-offensives — big problems could arise for Moscow. The Russian army’s predecessor, the Red Army, overextended itself in Afghanistan, a fact that by some estimations contributed to the disintegration of the former Soviet Union. The situation in Russia now is evolving quickly. The Moscow Times, one of the few independent media voices left in the Russian capital, reported that more than 10,000 reservists were conscripted in the first 24 hours of mobilization, citing a statement from a Russian military official. Recruitment offices have reportedly opened their doors from St. Petersburg all the way to Russia’s Far East. The Meduza report said that while the focus of mobilization will be in rural areas, 16,000 Muscovites are slated to be drafted as well. Initially, the defense minister, Sergey Shoigu, made assurances to the effect that only “people with military experience” would be called up and that “students have no need to worry.” From widespread news reports, though, it appears that few active adult male Russians are not currently worried. The Institute for the Study of War reported that some Russian federal subjects, such as the Republic of Yakutia and Kursk Oblast, are already imposing laws that restrict reservists from leaving their places of permanent residence. The ISW also said Russian enlistment officers and police are reportedly enforcing unscrupulous mobilization practices — reports documented on social media and elsewhere. Even if it is no longer a matter of speculation that Mr. Putin feels cornered, the repressive Russian state that he has fashioned may be in no immediate danger of disintegration. Yet scenes of the Russians protesting the draft and flocking to the borders are demoralizing, which is excellent news for Ukraine and a possible sign of the beginning of the end of the Russia that the West thought it knew before February, the month the full-scale invasion of Ukraine began. The ISW’s assertion that the Kremlin’s heavy-handed approach to mobilization is “unlikely to generate effective soldiers” may turn out to be an understatement. Some of the lucky or moneyed young Russian men are already in countries like Turkey, biding their time. Inside Russia, the desperation is real. The BBC’s Russian news service quoted a Russian man, name and age unspecified, as saying: “I will break my arm, my leg, I will go to prison, anything to avoid this whole thing.”

Russia’s ‘Partial’ Mobilization Will See More Than a Million Men Shipping to Ukraine: Report

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