Mariupol

Similar to Mark Twain’s famous observation on reports of his demise, Russia’s claims of victory in the Ukrainian port of Mariupol have been exaggerated. While indeed most of the urban area has fallen to besieging Russian forces, Ukrainian resistance stands strong at the Astoval ironworks in the city’s east.

Seeking to avoid a costly frontal assault on the iron foundry, Vladimir Putin instructed his troops to surround the complex and starve its 2,000 Ukrainian defenders into submission. Despite dwindling supplies of ammunition, food, and water, the are resisting thus far.

No News About Bad News

A newfound sensitivity to casualty counts is evident in a Russian Ministry of Defense proposal designed to conceal the number of troops killed in Ukraine. The plan is to shift applications for military death benefits to the Russian army personnel department from the civilian social assurance fund so as to “limit the circle of people” with access to casualty statistics.

With Russian manpower losses running well in excess of 10,000 dead and 20,000 wounded, it’s easy to understand Mr. Putin’s desire to suppress the butcher’s bill from his Ukrainian misadventure. This is especially true in view of his desperate need for plausible military success prior to one of the highest-profile events on Russia’s national calendar, the May 9 Victory Day Parade through Red Square commemorating the defeat of Nazi Germany.

Have Gun, Will Travel

As his war effort sputters, Mr. Putin has resorted to importing thousands of guns for hire to reinforce the Russian army’s decimated combat units. France 24 quotes an unnamed European official who briefed journalists saying that “20,000 mercenaries from the Russian private military company the Wagner Group as well as from Syria and Libya are fighting alongside Moscow’s forces in Ukraine.”

There are also reports that have not yet been confirmed that the Russian military is now recruiting 16-year-old boys to fill the depleted ranks ravaged by battle casualties. If true, this measure would violate the Geneva Protocol on the Involvement of Children in Armed Conflict that Russia ratified in September 2008.

After two months of reported serial war crimes committed by the Russian military, no one should be surprised by Mr. Putin’s ruthless willingness to ignore the terms of yet another international treaty he signed while prime minister.

We Have Met the Enemy and He Is Us

The corrosive impact of the war on Russian military morale has been well documented, with captured soldiers relating to the international media how they were misled by their officers. Reports of mutiny and defections have become commonplace to the point where Russian officers have begun to implement punitive policies reminiscent of the Red Army’s draconian disciplinary measures during WWII.

Military historian Anthony Beevor described how, at Stalingrad, “some 13,500 Soviet troops were executed by their own side.”

The Toronto Sun has reported on “Russian execution squads hunting demoralized deserters, defectors.” Chechen militiamen are also alleged to be serving as enforcers of Mr. Putin’s will within the Russian army. In one reported incident, as yet unverified, Chechen fighters put down a rebellion in one Russian unit by shooting three soldiers who wanted to lay down their weapons and go home.

All Hat, Very Few Cattle

The much-touted Russian offensive in the eastern Donbas region has yet to produce substantial territorial gains for Mr. Putin’s forces. Ukrainian troops on the northern flank of the Kramatorsk Salient have held their ground against Russian units of the 106th Airborne Division attacking south from the city of Izyum toward Sloviansk. 

It has been a similar story on the southern flank of the salient, where Libyan and Syrian mercenaries have become bogged down in bitter house-to-house fighting through the town of Popasna.

The operational objective of Russian forces is clear — to thrust into the Kramatorsk Salient from north and south, thereby cutting off defending Ukrainian forces or requiring them to retreat. At the time of this writing, there is little tangible evidence that Russians have made significant progress toward that goal.

Give Us the Tools and We’ll Finish the Job

There has been a steady flow of arms into the arsenal of the Ukrainian military from Western democracies, with the Biden administration announcing another $800 million worth of weapons to Kyiv. Norway will also be supplying Ukraine with 100 Mistral man-portable anti-aircraft missiles.

Access to cutting-edge anti-armor and air-defense missile systems played a central role in the Ukrainian ability to beat back Russian attacks around Kyiv in the north, Mikolaiv in the south, and Kharkiv in the east. There is every reason to expect that Ukrainian defenses around the Kramatorsk Salient will meet with similar success.