As more than 1 billion followers of the Catholic Church wait for white smoke to emerge from the chimneys atop the Sistine Chapel and signal the selection of Pope Francis’ successor, names are already being floated about who could be the next Bishop of Rome. 

Funeral rites for Francis will be held for nine days. And the conclave to select his successor is expected to begin in 15 to 20 days. 

The search for the next leader of the Catholic Church will likely be closely watched not just by the members of the church, but also by non-Catholics who recognize the immense influence of the institution, especially in light of the debates over how the church and its members should address topics such as immigration, LGBT issues, and abortion.

While there is much speculation, previously conclaves have ended with the cardinals choosing a new pope not seen as a front-runner before the conclave, including when Francis was selected in 2013. 

Once the 120 cardinal electors gather for the conclave, there will be as many as four daily ballots until the new pope is chosen. If it takes more than 30 ballots, only the top two candidates will remain on the ballot, and the process will continue until a candidate receives the support of two-thirds of the cardinals. 

In anticipation of the beginning of the secretive process of selecting the next pope, several names have been floated as potential candidates:

Luis Antonio Cardinal Tagle

One of the perceived frontrunners is Luis Antonio Cardinal Tagle, 67, from the Philippines. His election would make him the first Asian pope. Cardinal Tagle, who has been dubbed the “Asian Pope Francis,” is known for his liberal views. In 2015, he said the Catholic Church’s “severe” stance on the LGBT community, single mothers, and divorcees has left those groups “branded.” However, he has also adhered to the church’s stance against abortion.

Pietro Cardinal Parolin

The Vatican’s secretary of state, Pietro Cardinal Parolin, 70, of Italy is also seen as a potential candidate. As influential spokesman for Francis on the international stage, he has spoken about Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, saying a peace deal should not come through “unilateral impositions” that would mean “trampling on the rights of entire peoples.”

Cardinal Parolin is also seen as a moderate continuity candidate, closely aligned with Francis’ views. The cardinal was, however, embroiled in a real estate deal at London that led to a Vatican judge indicting ten people on charges of embezzlement, abuse of office, extortion, and fraud. Cardinal Parolin was involved in trying to stop the financial bleeding as the deal cost the Vatican tens of millions of dollars. While he was involved in the deal, he was not charged by the Vatican. Beside the scar of the real estate deal looming over him, he also lacks pastoral experience. 

Matteo Cardinal Zuppi

Another potential candidate is Matteo Cardinal Zuppi, 69, who Francis appointed as cardinal in 2019. Francis also made him the Vatican’s peace envoy to try to bring an end to Russia’s war in Ukraine. 

He has been known for his liberal views. He wrote an introduction to the book “Building a Bridge,” by Reverend James Martin, which advocated for the Catholic Church to expand its outreach to the LGBT community. Like Francis, he is known for an emphasis on ministering to members of marginalized communities. 

Peter Cardinal Turkson

One candidate who could make history as the first Black pope is Peter Cardinal Turkson, 76, of Ghana. He was the first Ghanaian cardinal.

In 2009, Cardinal Turkson was made the head of the Vatican’s agency that advocates for social justice and human rights, the Pontifical Council for Justice and Peace, by Pope Benedict XVI. He was known as one of Francis’ advisers on climate change, and spoke at the World Economic Forum at Davos earlier this year.

He has affirmed the traditional views of the Catholic Church on marriage. However, he criticized attempts in Africa to impose criminal penalties on people who identify as LGBT. Speaking to the BBC’s HARDTalk program in 2023, he said, “LGBT people may not be criminalized because they’ve committed no crime.”

Pierbattista Cardinal Pizzaballa

Pierbattista Cardinal Pizzaballa, 69, has served as the Latin Patriach of Jerusalem.

While he has not made many public statements on hot button topics, he made headlines in 2023 after he declared a “total willingness” to exchange himself for the hostages taken by Hamas after its October 7 attack to try to prevent the ensuing war. In December 2024, he visted the Gaza Strip and presided over a Mass there.

Peter Cardinal Erdo

On the conservative wing of potential candidates is Peter Cardinal Erdo, 72, the archbishop of Budapest. He was elected twice to be the head of the European Episcopal Conferences — in 2005 and 2011 — which suggests he has the support of many European cardinals, who make up the largest voting bloc of electors. 

He has adhered to the Catholic Church’s doctrine on marriage, stating in 2015 that Catholics who remarry should be denied Communion unless they agree to abstain from sex. That same year, he argued that Hungary should not receive refugees as that would equate to human trafficking. 

Robert Cardinal Sarah

Another potential candidate seen as a conservative pick is Robert Cardinal Sarah, 79, of Guinea. He would also make history as the first Black pope. Cardinal Sarah wrote a book in 2020 with Benedict that focused on the “necessity” of clerical celibacy. The book was seen by some as a challenge to Francis’ teaching. 

In 2015, he warned of “two radicalizations” that are “major threats to the family,” including “quick and easy divorce, abortion, homosexual unions, euthanasia” and so-called gender ideology, and the “ideologized Islam which legitimizes polygamy, female subservience, sexual slavery, child marriage” practiced by terrorist groups like ISIS.