EAST

#1 BOSTON RED SOX
2004 Record 98-64

The Red Sox were the best team in baseball last year and they got better over the winter, adding All-Star shortstop Edgar Renteria, and replacing Pedro Martinez and Derek Lowe with the estimable groundball machine Matt Clement and the eternally underestimated David Wells. They also made the sort of minor moves that ended up separating them from the Yankees last year, such as signing injured starter Wade Miller to a cheap contract in the hope that he can pitch a good half season, and acquiring an excellent backup infielder (Ramon Vazquez) and a starting-caliber outfielder (Jay Payton) from San Diego in exchange for fifth outfielder Dave Roberts.

The Red Sox’ philosophy is about taking smart risks and winning with a certain amount of starpower and overwhelming depth. No one on the team played over his head last year; if anything, the Red Sox should benefit from a full season of Trot Nixon this year. There really isn’t a bad player on the team, and frontline talents Manny Ramirez, David Ortiz, Curt Schilling, and Keith Foulke can carry the team for long stretches. The Sox are clearly better than the Yankees right now.

Predicted record: 98-64

#2 NEW YORK YANKEES
2004 Record 101-61

The Yankees’ strengths are many and obvious. So are their weaknesses: A questionable rotation, a lack of quality role players, a poor defense, a mediocre bottom half of the lineup, and age. Essentially, the Yankees are counting on their five best position players, two best starters, and two best relievers to carry them through the season. The talent is there for that to happen, but there is a saying about eggs and baskets that I think applies. Even if they win 101 games again, it will have come at a cost of $2 million per win, which is a bit much.

Predicted record: 93-69, wild card

#3 BALTIMORE ORIOLES
2004 Record 78-84

Were they in another division, I could imagine the Orioles making a serious run at a postseason berth, mainly because they have that most valuable of all baseball commodities: genuine superstar talent. Miguel Tejada is arguably the best position player in the league, Melvin Mora has hit like Alex Rodriguez for the last two years, and Javy Lopez remains among the best hitting catchers in the game. When Rafael Palmeiro and Sammy Sosa, who have 1,125 home runs between them, are supporting players in your offense, there’s reason for optimism.

Hitting only takes up one half of the inning, though, and the Orioles are woeful. Nominal ace Sidney Ponson has earned headlines with a series of drunken, violent public incidents, and he’s the most reliable pitcher on the staff. Past him, the Orioles have a collection of disappointing young lefty starters who used to be prospects. There’s probably an alternate universe where they all put it together and push the team past a suddenly aged Yankees squad for the wild card slot. In this universe, though, that’s never going to happen.

Predicted record: 76-86

#4 TORONTO BLUE JAYS
2004 Record 67-94

Last spring, many baseball observers (including this writer) hyped the Blue Jays up beyond all reason. Their 2003 season, in which they won 86 games, was in retrospect an obvious fluke driven by peak performances from Vernon Wells, Carlos Delgado, and Cy Young winner Roy Halladay. The team lost 94 games in 2004, and everyone hopped off the bandwagon. Former admirers of the team’s sabermetric-friendly approach now scratch their heads over the acquisitions of iffy veterans like Corey Koskie and Shea Hillenbrand – precisely the sorts of players you would expect the Blue Jays to avoid.

While the Jays aren’t going to con tend this year, the season won’t be wasted. Breaking in young players like right fielder Alexis Rios, shortstop Russ Adams, and pitcher David Bush is something that’s best done while expectations are low. If Halladay and Wells find a happy medium between their 2003 and 2004 seasons and the kids don’t fall apart on the field, the Jays could surprise again.

Predicted record: 73-89

#5 TAMPA BAY DEVIL RAYS
2004 Record 70-91

A toxic waste dump of a franchise, the Devil Rays have been serving the needs of the 2010 Mets by graciously playing enormous talents like Carl Crawford and Rocco Baldelli in the major leagues long before they were ready. This hasn’t helped the Rays compete, and will prove disastrous for their future, as players they’ve groomed into All-Stars leave via free agency before even hitting their primes.

This year, the Rays are performing similar services for the 2012 Yankees by playing shortstop B.J. Upton and pitcher Scott Kazmir, who are barely old enough to get a whiskey and soda. It’s all very thoughtful – fans can watch the most talented Triple-A team in the world play major league teams.

Predicted record: 63-99

#1 MINNESOTA TWINS
2004 Record 92-70

The Twins might just be starting their run atop the AL Central. They’ve won the last three division titles mainly because of their depth, a team-wide commitment to smart fundamental play, and a weak division. Last year, they produced their first genuine superstar, as Johan Santana exploded for four months of Koufax-like pitching and the Cy Young. It wasn’t a fluke; so long as his arm stays sound he’ll be among the best pitchers in the game for years.

This year, the Twins have a good shot at producing a hitter to match Santana. First baseman Justin Morneau is a monster, and his 19 home runs in 280 at-bats last year weren’t out of line with the power he showed in the minors. Then there’s catcher Joe Mauer, universally considered the best prospect in the game going into last season. A knee injury limited him to just 107 at-bats, and he may not stay behind the plate, but anyone who slugs .590 in the major leagues at 21 has the bat to succeed at any position. I expect one of these two to break out at a near-MVP level; add that to the Twins’ still-formidable depth and the presence of Santana, and this is a serious World Series contender.

Predicted record: 88-74

#2 CLEVELAND INDIANS
2004 Record 80-82

While the Indians are something of a trendy pick this year, I don’t see how they’re nearly as good as the Twins. Last year, they finished 80-82 despite Jake Westbrook ranking third in the league with a 3.38 ERA and Travis Hafner ranking second with a .993 OPS. Neither performance is likely to be approached this year.

This is a good young team on the rise, but any organization counting on Juan Gonzalez and Scott Elarton (who once went four years without getting his ERA below 6.00) is in for some headaches. Contention isn’t out of the question, but the Tribe will need a lot to go right. It could – catcher Victor Martinez is among the league’s most exciting young players, the rotation is young and talented, and outfielder Grady Sizemore is just waiting for Gonzalez to strain something to grab his spot in the lineup. Another player to watch is Kevin Millwood. The former Philly could surprise – he’s been a good pitcher in a bad situation the last two years, and could win 15 games if he approaches his career ERA of 3.89.

Predicted record: 84-78

#3 DETROIT TIGERS
2004 Record 72-90

Signing 31-year-old outfielder Magglio Ordonez to a $75 million contract would have been a silly move even if he was healthy – he’s the kind of slow, right-handed power hitter who ages badly. But that doesn’t mean he won’t help what is all of a sudden a perfectly respectable Tigers team.

It’s true that last year’s success was based largely on the play of Ivan Rodriguez and Carlos Guillen, both of whom established career highs in OBA (.383 and .379, respectively), but they’re likely to be worse this year. Tigers fans still have a few reasons for hope. First is Ordonez – while he’s not a wise long-term investment, he will be a strong middle-of-the-order hitter if his knee holds up. Second, the Tigers won 72 games last year despite the underlying statistics of a 79-win team. If they can just hold steady from last year, they could well finish at .500, and actual improvement could lead to fringe contention. Not bad for a franchise that two years ago fielded the worst team of all-time.

Second is Jeremy Bonderman, whose career ERA of 5.20 belies excellent stuff. A light seems to have gone on last summer – in the last two months of the season, the 22-year-old pitcher posted a 3.10 ERA and an outstanding K/BB ratio of 68/24.

Predicted record: 81-81

CENTRAL

#4 CHIGAGO WHITE SOX
2004 Record 83-79

What an oddly run team the White Sox are. When they built Comiskey Park in the early-1990s, they were offered the plan that would eventually become Camden Yards, but instead chose to build the last cookie-cutter park. It offered a fine view of the Chicago skyline, but the team chose to open the outfield view to the western suburbs instead.

And after it became clear that modifications to the ballpark made last off-season turned it into a more home run-friendly park than Coors Field, the Sox chose to stock up on fly ball pitchers and slap hitters, preaching the values of speed and defense. Is manager Ozzie Guillen a secret agent of the hated Cubs? Did GM Kenny Williams lose a bet? Who knows?

What is clear is that the Sox offense is much weaker than it was last year: sluggers Carlos Lee and Magglio Ordonez have been replaced with the vastly inferior Jermaine Dye and Scott Podsednik, and Frank Thomas will start the year on the D.L. Pitching ace Mark Buehrle, meanwhile, has apparently decided it’s a good idea to pitch on a broken foot, and this may be the most combustible clubhouse in the game. With the blowhard Guillen and noted kooks Carl Everett and A.J. Pierzynski all occupying the same clubhouse as the surly Thomas and Orlando Hernandez and the cantankerous Chicago press, this may not be a very good team, but it will be an (unintentionally) entertaining one.

Predicted record: 79-83

#5 KANSAS CITY ROYALS
2004 Record 58-104

The Royals are a mess. Their best pitcher, Zack Greinke, is 21 years old. Their best hitter, Calvin Pickering, has such huge holes in his game he wasn’t a lock to make the club despite hitting 42 home runs in 321 at-bats in Triple-A and the majors last year. On their entire roster I count one reasonably well-rounded player, overlooked centerfielder David Dejesus.

Like most of the other really bad teams in the league, though, the Royals at least have some interesting young players. Catcher John Buck, 24, second baseman Ruben Gotay, 22, and third baseman Mark Teahen, 23, are all in their first full major league seasons, and all hold out the promise of developing into good players. Perhaps the strongest effect of the Money ball philosophy has been to discourage teams from aimlessly running out hopeless clubs full of random, overpaid veterans; this is a good thing for the game, as I think everyone would prefer to watch a bad team full of hungry young kids to one filled with mediocre veterans.

Predicted record: 68-92

WEST

#1 LOS ANGELES ANGELS
2004 Record 92-70

It’s fairly rare for a manager to have the kind of impact on his club that Mike Scioscia has had on the Angels. The strengths of the Angels since he took over have been a strong, relatively anonymous bullpen built around pitch movement instead of radar-gun readings, and a consistently aggressive game plan at the plate and on the basepaths.

What’s interesting about the latter is that every manager drones on at length about executing the fundamentals, putting pressure on the defense, moving the runner over, subordinating at-bats to team goals, and so on. Most of the time it’s balderdash, the sort of thing managers say because they have to say something. In the Angels’ case it isn’t; despite having only one healthy hitting star in 2004 – A.L. MVP Vladimir Guerrero – and despite the presence of such dubious hitters as Darin Erstad and David Eckstein in the lineup, the Angels’ offense was comparable to that of the St. Louis Cardinals. Last year, the Cards posted a .277 Equivalent Average, a Baseball Prospectus statistic that adjusts for league and park and measures offense on a scale like batting average; the Angels’ mark was .275. If the right hitters are in place, if they buy into a common approach and if they’re capable of executing it, an offense really can be more than the sum of its parts. I see no reason not to expect more of the same.

Predicted record: 91-71

#2 OAKLAND ATHLETICS
2004 Record 91-71

The demise of the Oakland pitching staff has been greatly exaggerated. The team won 91 games last year despite subpar performances from Barry Zito and Mark Mulder and an injury that cost Tim Hudson a fifth of the season. Improvements from Zito and Rich Harden and a strong bullpen should make up for the losses of Hudson and Mulder, and the A’s probably only need something like 500 innings of average performance from the three prospects in their rotation – Joe Blanton, Dan Haren, and Dan Meyer – to make another run at 90 wins.

Unfortunately for the A’s, that’s quite a lot to ask from pitchers in their early 20s; more unfortunately, shortstop Bobby Crosby looks set to miss some time after a beaning in a spring training game. Even so, the A’s won’t be at all bad for a rebuilding team that just traded away two ace pitchers, but they haven’t fielded a team this weak since Bill Clinton was president.

Predicted record: 86-76

#3 SEATTLE MARINERS
2004 Record 63-99

How bad was the Seattle offense last year? Ichiro Suzuki, one of the fastest players in the game, set the major league record for hits in a season and only scored 101 runs, which didn’t even rank among the top 10 in the league. New corner infielders Adrian Beltre and Richie Sexson and rookie center fielder Jeremy Reed will help put more runs on the board, and this is a fine defensive ballclub, but I still don’t see how they have the offense to compete with the Angels and A’s.

They certainly don’t have the pitching. Their rotation consists of Joel Piniero, a promising 26-year-old recovering from injury, and a variety of mediocre innings-eaters. It’s a formula that can work in the right circum stances, but those involve having a stronger bullpen and a better offense than the Mariners sport. Nonetheless, this team should be respectable, which is a good thing for Seattle fans unaccustomed to the kind of boring, incompetent baseball they saw last summer.

Predicted record: 78-84

#4 TEXAS RANGERS
2004 Record 89-73

The Rangers were definitely over their heads last year, and unless you believe Ryan Drese will throw another 200 innings of 4.20 ball this year, they’re likely to be a lot worse. As often happens with teams that play in extreme hitter’s parks, the offense was not nearly so imposing as it seemed. The Rangers’ home OPS of .836 was the second-best in the league; their road OPS of .736 was the third-worst. Odd as it is to say of a team whose young infield of Mark Teixeira, Alfonso Soriano, Michael Young, and Hank Blalock is generally regarded as the best in the game, what they need is more offense.

Despite some strong performances from the bullpen and starter Kenny Rogers last year, the pitching is no great shakes, either. Chan Ho Park, whose 5.46 ERA last year was his lowest as a Ranger, is being counted on to contribute. Good luck with that.

Predicted record: 76-86

PROJECTED AWARD WINNERS

NL

MVP: Albert Pujols
Cy Young: Pedro Martinez
Rookie of the Year: Jeff Francis
Manager of the Year: Dusty Baker

AL

MVP: Eric Chavez
Cy Young: Johan Santana
Rookie of the Year: Jeremy Reed
Manager of the Year: Mike Scioscia

POST-SEASON

ALDS: Red Sox beat Twins

ALDS: Yankees beat Angels

ALCS: Red Sox beat Yankees

NLDS: Dodgers beat Cardinals

NLDS: Cubs beat Braves

NLCS: Dodgers beat Cubs

WORLD SERIES: Red Sox beat Dodgers