EAST

#1 ATLANTA BRAVES
2004 Record 96-66

I freely confess that the main reason I’m picking the Braves to win is that I’ve thought their run was over every single year since 2000, and they have of course won the division every single one of those years. There are all sorts of reasons to pick against them this year – they lost J.D. Drew and Jaret Wright; they’re starting Brian Jordan and Raul Mondesi at the outfield corners; their bullpen is fairly weak; and most importantly, they’re in a division with three other teams that can be envisioned winning the pennant.

Against that, you have the acquisition of Tim Hudson, who should be expected to do what Wright did last year. You also have the fact that things always seem to go right for the Braves, which isn’t an accident. So, what can go right for them? John Smoltz can successfully move back into the rotation from the bullpen. Any or all of Chipper Jones, Marcus Giles, Rafael Furcal, and Andruw Jones can play much better than they did last year. And prospects Ryan Langerhans and Andy Marte can supplant the wizened corner outfielders. Not all of this will happen, but enough of it will to put the naysayers to shame yet again.

Predicted record: 94-68

#2 PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
2004 Record 86-76

Managers usually make a difference only at the margins. The only managers who in recent years have substantially improved their teams are Mike Scioscia, Jack McKeon, and Bobby Valentine; on the other hand, plenty of skippers have run their teams into the ground, the most vivid example of which was Larry Bowa during his tenure in Philadelphia.

The Phillies are an excellent team, with a shot at being as good as any in the majors. They boast a tremendous pair of stars in Jim Thome and Bobby Abreu, a rising star in Jimmy Rollins, good players all over the diamond, a solid pitching staff, and great depth, with plenty of young players ready to step into substantial roles. Their utility infielder, Placido Polanco, is better than most teams’ starting second basemen. All of which was true the last two years, neither of which saw them win a thing. This team has clearly been missing something, and it’s impossible to know whether the reasonably innocuous new manager, Charlie Manuel, can fill in the blanks. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Thome and Abreu hoisting a World Series trophy over their heads, nor would it surprise me to see them come up short yet again.

Predicted Record: 91-71

#3 NEW YORK METS
2004 Record 71-91

On paper, the Mets are slightly better than a .500 team. While Pedro Martinez and Carlos Beltran are great players, the Mets got very good production out of the players who held their roles last year, so they don’t represent as much of an improvement as you might think. The real key to the team’s chances lies in getting solid production from league-average players like Kazuo Matsui, Doug Mientkiewicz, and Kazuhisa Ishii. If that happens, and the regulars stay healthy – always a big “if” on this team – the Mets will contend for the division title. If not, they’ll at least be a lot better than past editions, and will set their sights on a serious run in 2006.

Predicted Record: 84-78

#4 FLORIDA MARLINS
2004 Record 83-79

There certainly is a lot to like about the Marlins. The only reason I’ve picked them to finish this low is that they have a lot riding on three young pitchers – Josh Beckett, Dontrelle Willis, and A.J. Burnett – and young pitchers are hard to rely on. This is also the thinnest of the division’s four contenders; anyone who actually reserves a roster spot for Lenny Harris is playing a man short.

When you have Carlos Delgado and Miguel Cabrera in the middle of your lineup, though, you can put up with some uncertainty. At 22, Cabrera has already established himself as one of the league’s better players, and his career numbers are eerily similar to Hank Aaron’s at the same age. That, along with manager/sage Jack McKeon and the possibility of the Marlins’ young guns throwing 600 innings with a 3.25 ERA, is reason enough to think they can win another National League pennant.

Predicted Record 82-80

#5 WASHINGTON NATIONALS
2004 Record (MON) 67-95

At a time when more and more ball clubs are being run by people who are comfortable using terms like “synergy” and “interface,” Nationals GM Jim Bowden is a blessed relief. You know exactly what he’s going to do – overpay mediocre veterans, collect five-tool outfielders by the bushel, trade as if he had an obsessive-compulsive disorder, wear garish clothing, offer 37-year-old middle relievers up in trades for players like Adam Dunn and David Wright, and put a better and more entertaining team on the field than his detractors would think possible.

That aside, the ongoing embarrassment that is MLB’s ownership of the Nationals has left this team a disaster. I can conceive of a scenario where the Nationals do some damage, but counting on offense from Cristian Guzman and Vinny Castilla, both of whom have had multiple seasons with sub-.300 OBAs, is an excellent sign that a team is spinning its wheels.

Predicted Record 70-92

CENTRAL

#1 CHICAGO CUBS
2004 Record 89-73

Call this one a hunch, but I think the Cubs are better than the Cardinals this year. Chicago can’t match the Cards’ offensive clout, but every regular is solid, and several are quite a lot better than that. They’re a fairly young team, and several players – center fielder Corey Patterson foremost among them – look poised to reach a new level this year.

Too much is probably made of the injury woes plaguing Mark Prior and Kerry Wood. Neither is the team’s best pitcher – that honor goes to Carlos Zambrano – and the Cubs can rely on extraordinary depth not just in frontline starters, but also in swingmen and prospects. Plug in any from a group including Glendon Rusch, Ryan Dempster, Sergio Mitre, and Angel Guzman, and the team will compete. That margin for error is what separates them from the pack – if pianos fell on Albert Pujols and Scott Rolen tomorrow, the Cardinals would be toast, whereas the Cubs can lose two ace starters and still expect to play at an 85-win level.

Predicted Record 93-69

#2 ST. LOUIS CARDINALS
2004 Record 105-57

Last year, everything went right for the Cardinals, who stuck with a formula that’s been successful for a few years now – run out five solid starting pitchers, fill in the gaps around perennial MVP candidates Albert Pujols, Jim Edmonds and Scott Rolen, and hope for the best. I don’t see that working out quite as well in 2005.

For starters, the Cardinals got worse at two key positions. Former shortstop Edgar Renteria is better at his worst than new shortstop David Eckstein is at his best. While new catcher Yadier Molina is a good prospect, he’s not going to hit much better than former catcher Mike Matheny did, nor does he have the experience to replace Matheny in working with pitchers and calling games. Add to that health woes for Rolen and right fielder Larry Walker and probable decline from several of the starting pitchers, and a team that played over its head last year is suddenly worse. Even if new ace Mark Mulder shows that last year’s stretch-run collapse was a fluke, he’ll just be compensating for the loss of Woody Williams and the likely decline of Chris Carpenter and Jason Marquis.

None of this is to say that the Cardinals aren’t a legitimate pennant contender. But small negatives can add up to big ones in a hurry when there are enough of them.

Predicted Record 92-70, wild card

#3 HOUSTON ASTROS
2004 Record 92-70

This could be a very ugly team, which is an amazing thing to say about a club that was only outs from the 2004 World Series. The Astros still sport two legitimate ace pitchers in Roger Clemens and Roy Oswalt, a superstar hitter in Lance Berkman, and an elite reliever in Brad Lidge. So what’s the problem?

Everything else. The team is very old. Berkman, the team’s only sure bet to be an above-average player, will miss time this recuperating from a knee injury. It’s unclear who will play in any of the outfield slots and second base. There’s no offensive depth, and past Lidge the bullpen is so weak that John Franco, of all people, is being relied upon to pitch some significant innings. There are positives here, such as younger players like Jason Lane and Chris Burke, but the pieces don’t quite seem to fit.

Predicted Record 78-84

#4 MILWAUKEE BREWERS
2004 Record 67-94

The Brewers have quietly undone much of the damage wrought by more than a decade of horrible management. They have arguably the best starter in the league – Ben Sheets, whose 264/32 K/BB ratio in 2004 was reminiscent of Pedro Martinez in his prime, and a clear sign that his 2.70 ERA was no fluke – and several young starters with a chance to take a step forward. Add to that a lineup filled with good hitters in their primes like Geoff Jenkins and Carlos Lee, and stopgaps for first-rate prospects like Prince Fielder and Rickie Weeks, and the future is bright.

In contrast with the teams right below them, the Brewers are a coherently structured club, and they aren’t committed to any players who aren’t worth a commit ment. If things go badly, they can trade their marketable talent and give some young players a shot on their way to serious contention in a year or two; if things go well, they might resemble last year’s Cleveland Indians and make a surprise run. When you put yourself in position for good things to happen while maintaining a plan should they not, good things will happen. When you don’t, you turn into the Houston Astros, hoping everything goes well and facing disaster if it doesn’t.

Predicted Record 77-85

#5 CINCINNATI REDS
2004 Record 76-86

The problem with the Reds isn’t really talent – they have plenty of it, at least in theory. The problem is how it’s aligned. They have four starting outfielders, three of whom are better than their starting first baseman, and are so short on the left half of the infield they’ve been reduced to hauling in Rich Aurillia.

That’s still better than their pitching staff, which was so bad last year they felt it necessary to give Eric Milton, who gave up 43 home runs in 2004, contract worth $8 million a year. As the Great American Ballpark inflates home runs by about 10%, and as the other great Reds haul of the off-season was Ramon Ortiz, who has also given up 40 home runs in a season, the most interesting home run chase in baseball this year may be Ortiz and Milton vying for Bert Blyleven’s 1986 record of 50 long balls.

Still, the Reds won’t be all that bad. Adam Dunn, who hit 46 home runs last year, is an awesome player, something like a young Jim Thome with a bit of speed and the ability to handle the outfield. Austin Kearns still has the talent to be every bit as good – if he can ever stay healthy. And former Yankees farmhand Wily Mo Pena, who hit 26 homers in just 336 at-bats last year, might turn out to be even better than Kearns and Dunn. Toss in solid first baseman Sean Casey and another ex-Yankee, D’Angelo Jimenez, who’s quietly turned into one of the game’s better second basemen, and the Reds should be just good enough to frustrate their loyal fans no end.

Predicted Record 75-87

#6 PITTSBURGH PIRATES
2004 Record 72-89

Like every team in this division, the Pirates have a fairly decent nucleus. Last year’s Rookie of the Year winner, Jason Bay, is just entering his prime, while breakout first baseman Craig Wilson is in the middle of his. Jack Wilson could stake a claim as the best shortstop in the league this year if he can retain much of the improvement he showed last year, when he played Gold Glove-quality defense, smacked 62 extra-base hits, and hit .308. Add in young lefty Oliver Perez, who led all of baseball in strikeouts per nine innings and finished 6th in the league in ERA, and it’s easy to see why Pirates fans might feel optimistic about this year.

Unfortunately, the Pirates lack two things: a legitimate superstar player, and a supporting cast. This is due almost entirely to years of penny-pinching from ownership; GM Dave Littlefield has been creative in cleaning up the mess he inherited and putting a consistently slightly-below-average team on the field in circumstances that would lead many another team towards 100 losses, but the Pirates won’t get any more out of having Bay and the Wilsons on hand than they did out of having Jason Kendall, Aramis Ramirez, and Brian Giles.

Predicted Record 72-90

WEST

#1 LOS ANGELES DODGERS
2004 Record 93-69

I’m not confident about picking the Dodgers to win the West. This is a high-risk team. The Dodgers are taking chances on everything from J.D. Drew’s knee to Brad Penny’s elbow to Derek Lowe’s groundball style making him more valuable in Dodger Stadium than he would be anywhere else. They’re counting on Jeff Kent to hold up in his dotage. They’re counting on Milton Bradley not to get himself suspended and Hee Seop Choi to hit as his statistics suggest he will, rather than as his slow, loping swing does.

I expect many of these gambles to pay off. There’s a difference between blind risk and calculated risk. Every chance the Dodgers are taking has a very high upside – this team has a real chance at dominating the National League if everything falls right. If not, they’ll still be competitive. Those are odds worth taking.

Predicted Record 89-73

#2 SAN DIEGO PADRES
2004 Record 87-75

The Padres aren’t going to dominate the league under any circumstances, but they might be the best bet to win the division. There aren’t many stars on this team – Brian Giles might once again be a top-5 hitter, but at his age it’s more likely that he’ll continue to simply hit very well, and Mark Loretta is unlikely to hit .335 again. These two should, though, like everyone in the lineup, contribute to an offense that will be much better than it looks due to the offense-dampening effects of Petco Park.

Much the same is true of the pitching staff. Jake Peavy led the National League in ERA in 2004; he won’t do that again this year, but he’s one of the finest young pitchers in the game. Behind him are several reliable veteran pitchers. It isn’t the most glamorous way to win, but simply making sure you don’t give serious playing time to any scrubs is a very good way to win ballgames.

Predicted Record 85-74

#3 SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
2004 Record 91-71

It’s pretty common to see people make wildly inflated claims about the impact of individual players on teams – “Doug Mientkiewicz will save the Mets 100 runs with his glove,” and that sort of thing. But such claims make sense where Barry Bonds is concerned. Without him, the Giants are a mediocre team at best.

Bonds will miss anywhere from six weeks to the whole season recovering from a knee injury and his anger at the press. I have the Giants in third place on the assumption that Bonds will miss less time; if he sits out a third of the season or more that will probably be enough to kill the Giants’ season and put them behind the Diamondbacks.

Predicted Record 78-84

#4 ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS
2004 Record 51-111

The Diamondbacks were horrible last year, not far from what would happen if Randy Johnson had pitched for the 2003 Tigers. Maybe my favorite statistic of the 2004 season: The Snakes gave 70 starts to pitchers with ERAs of 6.00 or higher.

In that light, you can see the logic behind an off-season shopping spree that saw the D-Backs give wildly inflated contracts to injured veterans Troy Glaus, Shawn Green, and Russ Ortiz, acquiring Javier Vazquez to boot. Replace players with 6.00 ERAs with Ortiz and Vazquez and you might not win the World Series, but you won’t be a horrific embarrassment, either. Unfortunately, the logic is flawed; one of the problems with chronically injured players like Green and Glaus is that they tend to stay injured, and thus either unavailable or ineffective. The D-Backs can spend whatever they like, but this isn’t even close to being a good team.

Predicted Record 71-91

#5 COLORADO ROCKIES
2004 Record 68-94

The Rockies may be the most anonymous team in the majors, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing. Rather than do what Arizona is doing and attempt to paste some wallpaper over a rotted-out team, they’re playing their kids and trying to see what they have on their hands. Everyone from Jeff Francis, who may be the best pitching prospect in the game, to shortstop Clint Barmes, of whom no one has ever heard, is getting a crack at Coors Field this year. While this may pay dividends in the long term, it’s going to lead to some really bad baseball this year, and more griping from the front office about the alleged impossibilities of putting a good team together a mile above sea level.

Predicted Record 65-97