After an unutterably bizarre winter, in which baseball was reduced to the calculated ravings of several drug dealers and publicity-seeking politicians, nothing could be more welcome than actual games. Early this morning, the world champion Boston Red Sox and the Oakland Athletics will play the first game of the season in Tokyo, and within days the full range of the major league schedule will open up on American soil, offering the sights and sounds of real games under open skies as a natural refutation of the idea that the national sport can be summed up in the image of Roger Clemens strutting in the halls of Congress.

As has been the case for several years, the season’s main stories involve New York and Boston. Over the winter the Yankees fired manager Joe Torre, hired Joe Girardi to replace him, signed third baseman Alex Rodriguez for more money than J.P. Morgan paid for Bear Stearns, and committed their future to several brilliant young pitchers who, if they stay healthy and keep their wits, have every chance of anchoring a new Yankees dynasty. The Red Sox polished their World Series trophy and gloated over an equally impressive collection of young talent and veteran stars. The twist comes from the Central division, where Cleveland and Detroit have lined up talent bases nearly equal to those on display in the Northeast. One of these four teams will miss out on October, and it could well take until the last day of the season to find out which.

In the National League, failure and redemption are the order of the day. The Mets, coming off what could be fairly described as the worst collapse in baseball history, have added Johan Santana, the best pitcher in the sport, and will be faced with torches and pitchforks if they don’t win. (No pressure.) In Chicago, the Cubs are trying to avoid having gone 100 years without winning a world championship. At least one of these teams will fail to win the pennant that will erase their shame. Which will it be? We’ll find out six months from now. The intervening time will be glorious.

AMERICAN

CENTRAL

Detroit Tigers
2007 REC: 88–74 • 2008 (PROJECTED) 93–69

Projected Lineup

CF Curtis Granderson
2B Placido Polanco
3B Miguel Cabrera
RF Magglio Ordonez
DH Gary Shefield
1B Carlos Guillen
SS Edgar Re nteria
C Ivan Rodriguez
LF Jacque Jones
SP Justin Verlander
SP Jeremy Bonderman
SP Dontrelle Willis
SP Kenny Rogers
SP Nate Robertson
CL Todd Jones

The owner and the general manager of the Tigers, Mike Ilitch and Dave Dombrowski, respectively, deserve plaques and hearty handshakes. Their team is roughly on par with New York and Boston, and unless something goes terribly wrong, will compete against them and Cleveland in a four-way death match for three playoff spots this summer. This is a testament to the owner’s wholly admirable decision to lay out the cash to field a fine team, and the GM’s wisdom in spending it well.

There’s little to tell between Detroit and Cleveland: The Tigers have a deeper lineup and rotation; the Indians have better top starters, a stronger bullpen, and a superior defense. It all more or less evens out. When picking between two evenly matched teams, I’d propose it makes sense to go with the team that has the single best player: That would be Detroit’s Miguel Cabrera, though one could certainly argue for Cleveland’s Grady Sizemore. A bad hop or passing cloud might have as much impact here as anything else. If the Tigers can work their way into such a position, so can any team in baseball.

Cleveland Indians
2007 REC: 96–66 • 2008 (PROJECTED) 91-71

Projected Lineup

CF Grady Sizemore
2B Asdrubal Cabrera
DH Travis Hafner
C Victor Martinez
1B Ryan Garko
SS Jhonny Peralta
LF Jason Michaels
RF Franlin Gutierrez
3B Casey Blake
SP C.C. Sabathia
SP Fausto Carmona
SP Jake We stbrook
SP Paul Byrd
SP Aaron Laffe y
CL Joe Borowski

As noted above, the Indians are here just because one of these teams has to be picked second. It will be no surprise if they finish first, and no surprise if they edge out either the Yankees or Red Sox for the wild card. The one knock on the Tribe is that if all four of these teams play up to their potential, Cleveland is the one that will likely end up out of the money, if only because Paul Byrd is probably the weakest starter on any of the teams and because left fielder Jason Michaels and third baseman Casey Blake aren’t really championship-grade starters. No. 2 starter Fausto Carmona is also a poor bet to repeat last year’s Cy Young-caliber performance, though he is the real deal — as Yankees fans who recall his dominant performance in Game 2 of last fall’s ALDS will attest.

Like Detroit, Cleveland could refuse to compete and make plenty of excuses for it. We shouldn’t at all take it for granted that the Central, once by far the worst division in the game, has become one of its most consistently interesting — and entertaining.

Minnesota Twins
2007 REC: 79–83 • 2008 (PROJECTED) 76–86

Projected Lineup

CF Carlos Gomez
C Joe Mauer
RF Michael Cuddyer
1B Justin Morneau
LF Delmon Young
DH Jason Kubel
3B Mike Lamb
2B Brendan Harris
SS Adam Everett
SP Scott Baker
SP Francisco Liriano
SP Boof Bonser
SP L ivan Hernandez
SP Kevin Slowey
CL Joe Nathan

One certainly suspects that Minnesota will regret, for many years to come, not taking the Yankees up on their offer of Phil Hughes for Johan Santana. The deal they eventually took from the Mets was a weak return on the best pitcher in the game (if not as weak as generally thought) and this was the sort of mistake that can set a franchise back for some time. In Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Delmon Young, Francisco Liriano, and Joe Nathan, the team certainly has a first-rate core. But having Santana allowed them to paper over an exceedingly dubious taste in complementary players for many years, and without him, they now appear as a fairly unimpressive team. The shame of it is that if they only had a knack for picking good minor league veterans, they could compete — their talent base is that strong. But then, for all their winning in recent years, this is still the team that picked Doug Mientkiewicz over David Ortiz.

Chicago White Sox
2007 REC: 72–90 • 2008 (PROJECTED) 74–88

Projected Lineup

SS Orlando Cabrera
CF Nick Swisher
DH Jim Thome
1B Paul Konerko
RF Jermaine Dye
3B Joe Crede
C A.J. Pierzynski
LF Carlos Quentin
2B Danny Richar
SP Mark Buehrle
SP Javier Vazquez
SP Jose Contreras
SP John Danks
SP Gavin Floyd
CL Bobby Jenks

Last year, the White Sox lost more than they won, the third time that’s happened since 1990. This year, they’ll likely finish below .500 a second straight year, for the first time since Carlton Fisk and Jerry Reuss roamed the South Side. What’s gone wrong, in a word, is age. Minor stars such as Paul Konerko, Jermaine Dye, and A.J. Pierzynski don’t suddenly become worthless at the ring of a bell when they hit their 30s — but they do become susceptible to abrupt, irreversible decline. A team built around such players is at constant risk of collapse, and that’s what happened last year, as the Sox went from 90 wins to 90 losses in a single year.

Ozzie Guillen’s men are better than they showed in 2007, but this team needs to be torn down and rebuilt. The problem is that commitments to Konerko, Dye, Jim Thome, and others make a rebuild impractical. One would have thought GM Kenny Williams too shrewd to fall into this trap, but a world championship can make a man feel a lot more confident in his eye for talent than he ought to.

Kansas City Royals
2007 REC: 69-93 • 2008 (PROJECTED) 69-93

As was the case last year, the Royals cannot and should not be held to normal standards. After a decade of catastrophic management, this franchise was a toxic waste site, and before you can build on contaminated land, you have to undertake the patient work of clearing it. Early results are promising. Last year’s signing of free agent starter Gil Meche, widely deemed a joke at the time it was made, turned out to be quite a shrewd move: After a bit of tinkering with his delivery, Meche turned in 216 innings with a 3.67 ERA. Third baseman Alex Gordon, the presumptive favorite for the Rookie of the Year award at this time last year, turned in a brutal season, batting .248/.319/.431, but he’s still on track for stardom. Most importantly, every player on the roster is there for a clear and discernible reason, whether it’s for their real potential, or the fact that they’re filling in as a stopgap so as to avoid the need to rush or overexpose a younger player. These may seem like modest achievements; Royals fans still scarred by the Allard Baird years would disagree.

EAST

Boston Red Sox
2007 REC: 96-66 • 2008 (PROJECTED) 95–67

Projected Lineup

CF Jacoby Ellsbury
2B Dustin Pedroia
DH David Ortiz
LF Manny Ramirez
1B Kevin Youkilis
3B Mike Lowell
RF J.D. Drew
C Jason Varitek
SS Julio Lugo
SP Josh Beckett
SP Daisuke Matsuzaka
SP Clay Bucholz
SP Tim Wakefield
SP Jon Lester
CL Jonathon Pape lbon

As you know, the Red Sox are very, very good. The key reason why they can be expected to roll toward a third world championship in five years, though, is not so much the quality of the team as its structure. Several key regulars, such as David Ortiz, Manny Ramirez, and Mike Lowell, are at an age where they’re likelier to decline than they are to stay as good as they are. Unlike many veteran teams, though, the Red Sox balance that with quite a lot of youth: Daisuke Matsuzaka, Dustin Pedroia, and Jacoby Ellsbury, among others, are on the ascent, and their improvement should offset what the team loses to the age of some of its star players.

On a strict talent basis, Boston isn’t much, if at all, better than the other elite teams in the league. More than any of them, though, it’s already well prepared to win five years from now, when Josh Beckett, Jonathan Papelbon, and others will likely still be key contributors. It’s this ability to win now while preparing for the future that distinguishes the very best teams, and right now, at least, the Sox are the best in baseball.

New York Yankees
2007 REC: 94–68 • 2008 (PROJECTED) 93–69

Projected Lineup

LF Johnny Damon
SS Derek Jeter
RF Bobby Abreu
3B Alex Rodriguez
DH Jason Giambi
C Jorge Posada
2B Robinson Cano
1B Shelley Duncan
CF Melky Cabrera
SP Chien-Ming Wang
SP Andy Pettitte
SP Philip Hughes
SP Ian Kennedy
SP Mike Mussina
CL Mariano Rivera

The Yankees are, if anything, more talented than the Red Sox, and there’s an excellent case to be made for calling them the favorites in the division. Why pick them second? Because of the way the pitching staff lines up, they’re likely going to need Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, and Ian Kennedy all to stay healthy and pitch well, and when you’re counting on three young pitchers, you’re not lining the odds entirely in your favor.

This is more something to be cautious about than a grievous flaw, though, and the Yankees will bid farewell to the Stadium in style. The key to the season may well be Joe Girardi, who not only has the potential to bring the same stability to the managerial job for the next decade that Joe Torre brought it for the last, but the potential to tangibly improve the team’s situation. For all his enormous strengths, Torre had some quirks and tactical weaknesses that cost the team runs and wins in concrete ways. If Girardi can continue in Torre’s best tradition while running a game more efficiently, his team could easily assert itself as clearly the strongest in the sport.

Tampa Bay Rays
2007 REC: 66–96 • 2008 (PROJECTED) 84–78

Projected Lineup

RF Jonny Gomes
LF Carl Crawford
1B Carlos Pena
CF B.J. Upton
DH Jonny Gomes
3B Evan Longoria
2B Akinori Iwamura
C Dioner Navarro
SS Jason Bartlett
SP Scott Kazmir
SP James Shields
SP Matt Garza
SP Edwin Jackson
SP Andrew Sonnanstine
CL Troy Percival

Oddly for a team that’s never lost fewer than 90 games, Tampa Bay is in the position of being so hyped for being underhyped that they’re now overhyped. So many writers, this one among them, have pointed out that there are plausible scenarios in which the Rays could shock the world, slay behemoths, and make the playoffs, that a mere improvement to .500 might come as a slight disappointment. It shouldn’t. This is a very talented young team, one that would stand an excellent chance of making the playoffs in the weaker National League, and their management has done an excellent job not only of cultivating young talent, but bringing it into alignment so that it forms a real team.

This winter’s trade of outfielder Delmon Young for pitcher Matt Garza gives the Rays a remarkably talented front three in their rotation, and the young lineup core will be improved with the addition of top third base prospect Evan Longoria. Realistically, it won’t be enough to get them to the top, but they could put a real scare into some very well-paid executives in the Northeast while falling short.

Toronto Blue Jays
2007 REC: 83–79 • 2008 (PROJECTED) 77–85

Projected Lineup

SS David Eckstein
1B Lyle Overbay
RF Alex Rios
DH Frank Thomas
CF Vernon Wells
3B Scott Rolen
2B Aaron Hill
LF Reed Johnson
C Gregg Zaun
SP Roy Halladay
SP A.J. Burnett
SP Dustin McGowan
SP Shaun Marcum
SP Jesse Litsch
CL B.J. Ryan

The fall of the American dollar over the last several years has proved a windfall for the formerly working-class Blue Jays; sadly for them, they haven’t spent the new wealth very well at all. Vernon Wells, for instance, who has a career .331 OBA, is the second-best center fielder in his own outfield, and is signed to a $126 million contract. It’s the perfect Blue Jays move. The problem isn’t that they lack good players — it’s that they pay market rate or above for so many good but not elite players that they lack the cash to go after the sort of franchise player who could make a real difference for them in their brutal division. The time has long since passed when GM J.P. Ricciardi could coast on his reputation as a top Billy Beane capo. Were he to be replaced by someone with a real vision, this team still might do something impressive.

Baltimore Orioles
2007 REC: 69-93 • 2008 (PROJECTED) 69-93

Projected Lineup

2B Brian Roberts
CF Adam Jones
RF Nick Markakis
1B Kevin Millar
DH Aubrey Huff
LF Luke Scott
3B Melvin Mora
C Ramon Hernandez
SS Luis Hernandez
SP Jeremy Guthrie
SP Daniel Cabrera
SP Adam Loewen
SP Steve Trachsel
SP Garrett Olson
CL George Sherrill

There are several teams in baseball that annually spend lots of money to do nothing more than avoid being embarrassingly bad. Those teams ought to look at what Andy MacPhail has done since coming to power in Baltimore last year, and think hard about it. Faced with a team that had no reasonable chance of success, MacPhail has traded off a young ace, Erik Bedard, and a former MVP, Miguel Tejada, while trying to get rid of everything that isn’t nailed down in exchange for the best young talent he can get. In the near term, the results will be pretty, but within a year or two the Orioles should be rid of any long-term obligations to mediocre players and free to build an actual team rather than merely respond to contingencies. Everyone understands why it’s best to rip off a Band-Aid. Why so few baseball executives can apply the logic on a broader scale, as MacPhail has, is a question that will go in eternal search of a good answer.

WEST

Los Angeles Angels
2007 REC: 94–68 • 2008 (PROJECTED) 87–75

Projected Lineup

3B Chone Figgins
2B Howie Kendrick
RF Vladimir Guerrero
CF Torii Hunter
LF Garret Anderson
1B Casey Kotchman
DH Juan Rivera
C Mike Napoli
SS Erick Aybar
SP John Lackey
SP Jon Garland
SP Jered We aver
SP Kelvim Escobar
SP Joe Saunders
CL Francisco Rodriguez

Los Angeles has won their division three of the last four years and will — barring catastrophe — make it four of five this year. Despite this, they have problems: The Angels have idiosyncratic ideas about the sorts of players they like, valuing free-swingers who run the bases and field aggressively far more than might be wise. This works for them, because they have a great manager (Mike Scioscia) who gets good use out of that sort of player.

This is all to the good, but signing 32-year-old Torii Hunter — a good but unexceptional player — to a $90-million contract seems a bit self-parodic. A system can work, but rigidity never does. When a devotion to a style leads a team to sign declining veterans because of how they play, rather than how good they are, little good can come of it. Between this and the team’s overstated but real troubles in turning top prospects into top young players, the Angels look to be set up for a fall. It’s their good luck that they play in a weak division.

Oakland Athletics
2007 REC: 76–86 • 2008 (PROJECTED) 80–82

Projected Lineup

F Emil Brown
2B Mark Ellis
3B Eric Chavez
DH Jack Cust
1B Daric Barton
SS Bobby Crosby
RF Travis Buck
CF Chris Denorfia
C Kurt Suzuki
SP Joe Blanton
SP Rich Harden
SP Chad Gaudin
SP Justin Duchscherer
SP Lenny DiNardo
CL Huston Street

Speaking of self-parody, when your best hitter is Jack Cust, a legendary minor league walks-and-whiffs artist, you have a problem. Oakland has been hit by some bad luck: Eric Chavez, Bobby Crosby, and Rich Harden, around whom this team was supposed to be built, are all staggeringly injury-prone, leaving the famously broke franchise up a certain creek. But there are also real questions about how well GM Billy Beane has adapted to the league as it catches up to his once-novel ideas.

No longer can he derive significant advantage just by understanding that minor league statistics are predictive, or that all but the very best relievers are disposable. He’s still a fine nuts-and-bolts executive with a good eye for talent, and he’s brought good young players into his system with shrewd trades. But unless this operator dreams up a new gimmick, it should be some time before Oakland fans see another of the 90-win teams to which they’re accustomed.

Texas Rangers
2007 REC: 75–87 • 2008 (PROJECTED) 74–88

Projected Lineup

2B Ian Kinsler
RF Milton Bradley
SS Michael Young
CF Josh Hamilton
LF Marlon Byrd
3B Hank Blalock
1B Ben Broussard
DH Frank Catalanotto
C Gerald Laird
SP Kevin Millwood
SP Vicente Padilla
SP Brandon McCarthy
SP Jason Jennings
SP Kason Gabbard
CL C.J. Wilson

Having finished in third or fourth place every year this decade — even in the year when they won 89 games — the Rangers, as much as any team in baseball, seem committed to eternally re-enacting the same mistakes. Never quite making a serious run at the top of a very winnable division, and never quite willing to burn the whole thing down and start over, they exist in a gray netherworld between being the sort of team that could win the Series if everything went right, and being the sort that could lose 110 if everything went wrong — which is a bad place to be.

With Mark Teixeira gone, their best player is Michael Young, which is somehow fitting — you would think it impossible for a shortstop who’s racked up five straight 200-hit seasons to not really be a star-caliber player, but Young manages, and that suits his team. They spend money, and they have talent, but it’s been a long time since they’ve showed an understanding of the purposes to which talent and money are supposed to be put.

Seattle Mariners
2007 REC: 88–74 • 2008 (PROJECTED) 73–89

Projected Lineup

CF Ichiro Suzuki
3B Adrian Beltre
DH Jose Vidro
LF Raul Ibanez
1B Richie Sexson
RF Brad Wilkerson
C Kenji Johjima
2B Jose Lope z
SS Yuniesky Betancourt
SP Erik Bedard
SP Felix Hernandez
SP Carlos Silva
SP Jarrod Washburn
SP Miguel Batista
CL J.J. Putz

Ichiro Suzuki is a Hall of Famer who’s lost nothing to age; Erik Bedard and Felix Hernandez are a legitimate pair of aces, and J.J. Putz is one of the game’s best closers. One would think this enough to put the free-spending Mariners, who won 88 last year, in contention in a weak division. I expect, though, that this will be the most disappointing team in baseball.

You can pay well-known players such as Richie Sexson, Carlos Silva, Jarrod Washburn, and their ilk as much as you like, but it won’t make them any good. Seattle’s consistent inability or refusal to realize this has left them with a washed-up second baseman for a designated hitter, a perfect symbol for a lineup stacked with players who just can’t hit, and a pricey rotation that’s a poor bet to be much better than average despite the presence of their two top aces. If the Mariners would just avoid making actively bad decisions, they’d be fine. That they can’t makes them one of the more frustrating teams in the sport. A letdown this year — assuming it ushers in new leadership in the front office — will likely be the best thing for them in the end.

Predictions

AL MVP
Miguel Cabrera, Tigers

AL Rookie of the Year
Clay Buchholz, Red Sox

AL Cy Young
C.C. Sabathia, Indians

AL Manager of the Year
Joe Maddon, Rays

ALDS
Boston d. Los Angeles, Detroit d. Yankees

ALCS
Boston d. Detroit

World Series
Boston d. Chicago

NATIONAL

EAST

New York Mets
2007 REC: 88–74 • 2008 (PROJECTED) 95–67

Projected Lineup

SS Jose Reyes
2B Luis Castillo
3B David Wright
CF Carlos Beltran
1B Carlos Delgado
LF Moises Alou
RF Ryan Church
C Brian Schneider
SP Johan Santana
SP Pedro Martinez
SP John Maine
SP Oliver Perez
SP Orlando Hernandez
CL Billy Wagner

In their first two years running the Mets, Omar Minaya and Willie Randolph earned enormous goodwill, as they seemed well on their way to building not only a perennial winner, but a stylish, exuberant, and admirable roster in which the team’s oft-burned fans could truly believe. That’s gone now; in its place is a purely transactional relationship. This is an 88-win team with three MVP-class players that just added Johan Santana, by far the sport’s best pitcher. There will be no excuses at all for failure, and if they don’t at least win the division, blood should — and presumably will, — run in the streets.

This may seem grim and joyless, but such are affairs when a team’s fans spend the winter seriously arguing whether their offense rises to the level reached by the 1964 Phillies. This is, by the figurative order of magnitude, the most talented club in the division. If the Mets as presently arrayed can’t win, the Mets as presently arrayed must cease to exist.

On a cheerier note, there is a very good chance that David Wright will firmly overtake St. Louis’s Albert Pujols as the league’s best player this year. The Mets have never had a player so good.

Atlanta Braves
2007 REC: 84–78 • 2008 (PROJECTED) 89–73

Projected Lineup

2B Kelly Johnson
SS Yunel Escobar
3B Chipper Jones
1B Mark Teixeira
C Brian McCann
RF Jeff Francoeur
LF Matt Diaz
CF Mark Kotsay
SP John Smoltz
SP T im Huds on
SP Tom Glavine
SP Mike Hampton
SP Jair Jurrjens
CL Rafael Soriano

Last year, the Braves scored 77 more runs than they allowed, better than the Phillies or Mets. They probably would have won the division with one more average starter, or if first baseman Scott Thorman had been able to reach base more than a quarter of the time in the first half. At the July 31 trading deadline, the team traded several promising young players to Texas for Mark Teixeira, but though he hit 17 home runs in the final two months, the trade came too late.

With a deep, balanced lineup that will feature a full season of Teixeira and shortstop Yunel Escobar, who hit .326 with walks and power as a rookie last year, Atlanta will score a metric ton of runs. The problem, again, will be a lack of average pitching. John Smoltz and Tim Hudson are the strongest pair of starters in the National League — other tandems, such as San Diego’s Jake Peavy and Chris Young, are equally talented but not as durable — but Mike Hampton, who hasn’t pitched a full slate since 2004, is the no. 4 starter. Even so, the Braves are strong wild-card contenders, and in the right circumstances could certainly win the East.

Philadelphia Phillies
2007 REC: 89–73 • 2008 (PROJECTED) 87–75

Starting Lineup

SS Jimmy Rollins
CF Shane Victorino
2B Chase Utley
1B Ryan Howard
LF Pat Burrell
RF Geoff Jenkins
3B Pedro Feliz
C Carlos Ruiz
SP Cole Hamels
SP Brett Myers
SP Kyle Kendrick
SP Jamie Moyer
SP Adam Eaton
CL Brad Lidge

Philadelphia is an odd team. Shortstop Jimmy Rollins and first baseman Ryan Howard have won MVP awards the last two years, second baseman Chase Utley is better than either one of them, and past them the lineup almost entirely comprises mildly sketchy propositions — strong hitters with iron gloves, deft fielders who can’t hit, and reasonably well-rounded players like Shane Victorino and Carlos Ruiz, who aren’t as young as you might think but have yet to play out full seasons as regulars.

Similarly, the pitching staff is top-heavy and moderately unreliable. Twenty-four-year-old ace Cole Hamels has Cy Young talent, but has pitched more than 101 innings in a season just twice as a professional (he’s only been in the league for two years, however). Brett Myers is a strong no. 2 in theory, but spent last year in the bullpen for some ridiculous reason that was never adequately explained. Past them, Jamie Moyer is the best starter, and he’s 45 and not all that good. Closer Brad Lidge is famously homer-prone and has a reputation for mental fragility; one wonders how this makes him a plausible fit in a home run park filled with famously drunk, hateful fans. On paper this is an improved version of a division-winning team, but I wonder if the flag is really more telling than the preceding half-decade in which this same team played below its talent every single year.

Washington Nationals
2007 REC: 73–89 • 2008 (PROJECTED) 74–88

Projected Lineup

SS Cristian Guzman
CF Lastings Milledge
3B Ryan Zimmerman
1B Dmitri Young
RF Austin Kearns
LF Elijah Dukes
C Paul Lo Duca
2B Ronnie Belliard
SP Shawn Hill
SP Jason Bergmann
SP Tim Redding
SP Matt Chico
SP Od alis Perez
CL Chad Cordero

Clued-in Mets fans will look toward the Potomac with rage and envy this summer. Willie Randolph managed a 95-win team to 88 wins last year; his former third base coach, Manny Acta, managed a 60-win team to 73 wins. This year, while bland Ryan Church and blander Brian Schneider galavant at Shea, Acta will enjoy the talents of Lastings Milledge, whose antics will doubtless be forgotten as he blossoms into a minor (and perhaps major) star, and Jesus Flores, one of the sport’s best catching prospects, whom the Nats shrewdly snatched up two winters ago in the Rule 5 draft. Oh, what could have been …

The Nationals, having just released nominal no. 1 starter John Patterson, are nothing close to a coherent team, but they do have an exceptionally bright young manager, and general manager Jim Bowden has a wise policy of not caring a whit about anything other than talent. Outfielder Elijah Dukes may be the least pleasant player in baseball, for instance, but he’s also a potential batting champion who makes the minimum salary, which is ultimately what counts. This team won’t impress in the standings, but they will lay the foundations for what should one day soon be a team far too good for a city full of shady bureaucrats and backroom dealers.

Florida Marlins
2007 REC: 71–91 • 2008 (PROJECTED) 72–90

Projected Lineup

SS Hanley Ramirez
2B Dan Uggla
RF Jeremy Hermida
LF Josh Willingham
1B Mike Jacobs
3B Jose Castillo
CF Cameron Maybin
C Mike Rabelo
SP Mark Hendrickson
SP Scott Olsen
SP Andrew Miller
SP Ricky Nolasco
SP Rick Vanden Hurk
CL Kevin Gregg

Sabermetrically inclined baseball fans are often accused of being unable to understand that what works in fantasy baseball doesn’t work in real life. Inane as this is on its own terms, it becomes more so when you look at Florida, an embarrassment of a franchise. Their strategy is to trade off top young players for even younger blue-chip prospects such as Cameron Maybin and Andrew Miller, play the prospects before they’re ready for the majors, and then eventually trade them off for even younger prospects. This doesn’t even attain to the complexity of fantasy baseball strategy. It befits a PlayStation game’s career mode. If team owner Jeffrey Loria insists on maintaining a payroll lower than the amount of money the Marlins get from baseball’s various revenue-sharing schemes, he should be made to sell the team to someone who will put the team’s first-rate scouting and development operation to better use.

CENTRAL

Chicago Cubs
2007 REC: 85–77 • 2008 (PROJECTED) 93–69

Projected Lineup

SS Ryan Theriot
LF Alfonso Soriano
1B Derrek Lee
3B Aramis Ramirez
RF Kyosuke Fukudome
2B Mark DeRosa
C Geovany Soto
CF Felix Pie
SP Carlos Zambrano
SP Ted Lilly
SP Rich Hill
SP Jon Lieber
SP Ryan Dempster
CL Kerry Wood

Not only are the Cubs good, but one can argue, straight-faced, that they’re the best team in the league. Last year’s team went most of the year getting little from catcher, center field, and right field. Prospects Geovany Soto and Felix Pie, having cracked the roster last year, should be among the better players in the circuit at the first two spots. Japanese veteran Kosuke Fukudome, apatient, left-handed line drive hitter, will fill the third hole and add balance to the northsiders’ imposing wall of right-handed power. A true ace, Carlos Zambrano, heads the rotation, backed by a pair of tough lefty strikeout pitchers; the strong bullpen harbors the fearsome Carlos Marmol, who ran up a 12.46 K/9 ratio last year and will likely do at least as well this year. This team is deeper, broader, and younger than the Mets, and while I’ve railed against him in the past, their manager, Lou Piniella, proved last year that he still has the brains, guts, and fire he did when he was younger.

There are two problems with this team. The first, hardly insuperable, is a thin back of the rotation. The second is that they’re the Cubs, heirs to a century of failure. It’s difficult to see how this team will manage not to win, but they’ll surely find a way to surprise.

Milwaukee Brewers
2007 REC: 83–79 • 2008 (PROJECTED) 87–75

Projected Lineup

2B Rickie Weeks
SS J.J. Hardy
LF Ryan Braun
1B Prince Fielder
RF Corey Hart
CF Mike Cameron
3B Bill Hall
C Jason Kendall
SP Ben Sheets
SP Jeff Suppan
SP Yovani Gallardo
SP Dave Bush
SP Carlos Villanueva
CL Eric Gagne

If you’re among those who think baseball has lost a bit of its zest and charm in an age of corporate homogeneity, you owe it to yourself to catch some Brewers games this summer. This team sports Prince Fielder, the youngest player ever to hit 50 home runs and a walking affront to the chiseled bodies of the workout age; “The Hebrew Hammer” Ryan Braun, who broke Mark McGwire’s rookie record for slugging average; two different shortstops who have hit 25 home runs in a season, and Yovani Gallardo, who, if he pitched in New York, would be talked up with Joba Chamberlain. Impossibly, the team even boasts both Eric Gagne and Guillermo Mota, thus giving them a nearly cornered market on steroid-linked goat relief pitchers.

Most entertaining of all, though, is the team’s defense, which was improved this winter with some lineup juggling and the import of Mike Cameron but should remain plenty bad. I’ve certainly detected no lack of effort or enthusiasm (the opposite, actually), but Braun’s 26 errors in 248 chances at third last year were the exaggeration of a team tendency, not an anomaly. Think the scene in “Major League” in which Roger Dorn takes fielding practice and multiply it several times over; that’s the Brewers at their worst. Because the team is good and plays honest ball, you can laugh with their botches, not at them; keep in mind, though, that just like Dorn’s Indians, if the light ever goes on for this crew, they’ll be a true terror.

Cincinnati Reds
2007 REC: 72–90 • 2008 (PROJECTED) 83–79

Projected Lineup

CF Corey Patterson
SS Jeff Keppinger
RF Ken Griffey Jr.
2B Brandon Phillips
LF Ad am Dunn
3B Edwin Encarnacion
1B Joey Votto
C Javier Valentin
SP Aaron Harang
SP Bronson Aroyo
SP Josh Fogg
SP Johnny Cueto
SP Matt Belisle
CL Francisco Cordero

The Reds’ main strength is young talent. Outfielder Jay Bruce is probably the position prospect in the sport, first baseman Joey Votto looks set to spend several years doing a passable impression of Mark Grace, and Johnny Cueto, Homer Bailey, and Edison Volquez are an imposing troika of starting prospects with nasty stuff. Put these guys together with a potent middle infield, perennial 40-home-run man Adam Dunn, an underrated tandem of top starters, and the right manager, and you just might have a contender.

Dusty Baker is not that manager. Having shredded the arms of a much more impressive troika of young starters in Chicago, and having given no evidence at all during his long managing career that he’s willing to break in young position players, or capable of doing so, he’s about the worst fit one could think of for this team. One can confidently predict that the Reds will win fewer games than their talent implies they should.

Houston Astros
2007 REC: 73–89 • 2008 (PROJECTED) 74–88

Projected Lineup

2B Kazuo Matsui
RF H unter Pence
1B Lance Berkman
LF Carlos Lee
SS Miguel Tejada
3B T y Wigginton
C Justin Towles
CF Michael Bourn
SP Roy Osw alt
SP Wandy Rodriguez
SP Brandon Backe
SP Woody Williams
SP Chris Sampson
CL Jose Valverde

Like a formerly wealthy family running up debts because it refuses to believe in its diminished circumstances and is accustomed to finery, the Astros traded for Miguel Tejada this winter and in so doing doomed themselves.

One understands the logic. Chicago won the division with 85 wins last year; any team with any talent, it would seem, can make a run of things, and Houston has a top ace, Roy Oswalt, a franchise hitter, Lance Berkman, and $100 million left fielder Carlos Lee. Unfortunately, past Oswalt, the team has no good pitchers, and by the time it scares some up, Berkman, Lee, and Tejada won’t be stars. A fluky 2000 aside, last year was Houston’s first losing season since 1991, but losing is something they should get used to. Locked into bad contracts with players they can’t use, Houston is far more likely to lose 95 than win 85, and it will only get worse from here. They bought when they should have sold and will regret it.

Pittsburgh Pirates
2007 REC: 68–94 • 2008 (PROJECTED) 73–89

Projected Lineup

CF N ate McLouth
SS Jack Wilson
2B Freddy Sanchez
LF Jason Bay
RF Xavier Nady
1B Adam LaRoche
C Ronny Paulino
3B Jose Bautista
SP T om Gorzelanny
SP Ian Snell
SP Paul Maholm
SP Matt Morris
SP Zach Duke
CL Matt Capps

From 1918 to 1948, the Philadelphia Phillies finished with a losing record every year excepting 1932, when they went 78–76. It thus isn’t really fair that when the Pirates end the year below .500, they’ll break the record, which they now share with the Phillies, for consecutive losing seasons. The Phillies deserve that record; they were much worse than the Pirates have been over the last 17 years.

Such is the fate of the Pirates, who can’t even really enjoy the fruits of ignominy in good conscience. In their 16 years of terrible baseball, they haven’t even attained any special heights of awfulness, having lost 100 just once. The most relentlessly uninspiring team in the game, they will this year run out a lineup that features Xavier Nady as its second-best hitter and several vaguely promising starters who might one day be no. 3 starters on good teams. Basketball owner and famed gadfly Mark Cuban has expressed interest in buying the team; why Major League Baseball hasn’t forced a sale when it should be begging him to take on this dreary franchise is a true mystery.

St. Louis Cardinals
2007 REC: 78–84 • 2008 (PROJECTED) 67–95

Projected Lineup

2B Adam Kennedy
RF Skip Schumaker
1B Albert Pujols
3B Troy Glaus
LF Chris Duncan
CF Rick Ankiel
C Yadier Molina
SS Cesar Izturis
SP Adam Wainwright
SP Braden Looper
SP Anthony Reyes
SP Brad Thompson
SP Todd Wellemeyer
CL Jason Isringhausen

Just as Xavier Nady’s status as a top Pirate tells you what you need to know about that team, so fellow Mets alumnus Braden Looper’s status as a top Cardinals starter tells you what you need to know about the sad state of National League baseball in the proud state of Missouri. Having dominated the league for most of this decade, the Cardinals now consist nearly entirely of bench players and relievers pressed into starting roles and the remnants of several injury-riddled former stars, such as Chris Carpenter and Mark Mulder. It is difficult to think of any reason why the team should not trade Albert Pujols, who could net the core of a good young team and whose talents really should not be squandered on a team this weak.

Arizona Diamondbacks
2007 REC: 90–72 • 2008 (PROJECTED) 92–70

Projected Lineup

CF Chris Young
2B Orlando Hudson
1B Conor Jackson
LF Eric Byrnes
C Chris Snyder
3B Mark Reynolds
SS Stephen Drew
RF Justin Upton
SP Brandon Webb
SP Dan Haren
SP Randy Johnson
SP Doug Davis
SP Micah Owings
CL Brandon Lyon

When the team with the best record in the league adds a 27-year-old ace over the winter, as the Snakes did when they traded for Dan Haren, they have to be considered the favorites in the division. Skeptics will rightly point out that Arizona was actually outscored last year, but the addition of Haren and improvements from several young players should more than make up the difference. Twenty-four-year-old center fielder Chris Young is unlikely to post another .295 on-base average, just as 25-year-old shortstop Stephen Drew can be counted on to improve on his .313 mark.

Even aside from the on-base issues, this lineup is hardly flawless. Few teams could benefit more from a trade for a true no. 3 hitter. Still, Haren and Brandon Webb are a devastating pair, the bullpen is ridiculously deep, and 20-year-old right fielder Justin Upton is a freak talent, perhaps comparable to a young Junior Griffey. These are considerable strengths, and if no hitter stands out as a stud, neither does any stand out as a black hole. This team’s main advantage is that they’ve proven they’ll play their best talent; it’s a big one.

Los Angeles Dodgers
2007 REC: 82–80 • 2008 (PROJECTED) 88–74

Projected Lineup

SS Rafael Furcal
C Russell Martin
1B James Loney
2B Jeff Kent
CF Andruw Jones
RF Matt Kemp
3B Nomar Garciaparra
LF Juan Pierre
SP Brad Penny
SP Derek Lowe
SP Chad Billingsley
SP Hiroki Kuroda
SP Esteban Loaiza
CL Takashi Saito

As usual, the Dodgers are theoretically the most talented team in the division, and as usual, there are some questions about how often their best talent will play. Juan Pierre, for instance, is slotted in for heavy playing time despite being the team’s fourth- or fifth-best outfielder, and no one will be surprised if Nomar Garciaparra, who’s toast, grabs time at both infield corners instead of top young talents Andy LaRoche and James Loney. Last year, outfielder Matt Kemp, a blue-chip prospect who hit .342 with power, had trouble getting playing time in place of Pierre and 1,000-year-old Luis Gonzalez; that’s typical of how the Dodgers have run things the last few years.

Joe Torre will be the key here. For a manager with a reputation for being skeptical of young players, he certainly broke plenty of them in for the Yankees. If he trusts talent, his team will likely win, but there are structural problems here that even a future Hall of Famer might find difficult to fix.

Colorado Rockies
2007 REC: 90–73 • 2008 (PROJECTED) 86–76

Projected Lineup

CF Willy Taveras
SS Troy Tulowitzki
LF Matt Holliday
1B Todd Helton
3B G arrett Atkins
RF Brad Hawpe
C Yorvit Torrealba
2B Jayson Nix
SP Jeff Francis
SP Aaron Cook
SP Ubaldo Jimenez
SP Josh Towers
SP Kip Wells
CL Manuel Corpas

No one can take away the historic run that last year landed Colorado a National League championship that their fans will remember forever, but a team that needed to win every day for three straight weeks to make the playoffs by a hair is not necessarily a good bet to repeat. One problem for the Rockies is that, contrary to their reputation, they don’t have a young, rising lineup. Matt Holliday, Brad Hawpe, and Garrett Atkins are all 28 or older, in their primes but unlikely to improve; Todd Helton is 34 and likely to decline; and three lineup spots are taken up by dead weight.

Another problem is that no matter what is done to deaden the ball, soft-tossing starters like Kip Wells and Josh Towers are going to get hammered in Denver’s thin air. This isn’t to say that the Rockies won’t compete. The middle of the lineup may not improve much, but it’s potent, and while fans argue over which is the best of the East’s shortstops, Troy Tulowitzki, a terrific hitter and an awesome fielder, may be better than any of them. With an excellent defense and the same strong relief pitching we saw last October, the Rockies have their strengths. But last year was largely the result of luck and circumstance.

San Diego Padres
2007 REC: 89–74 • 2008 (PROJECTED) 80–82

Projected Lineup

RF Brian Giles
2B Tadahito Iguchi
CF Jim Edmonds
1B Adrian Gonzalez
SS Khalil Greene
3B Kevin Kouzmanoff
C Josh Bard
LF Scott Hairston
SP Jake Peavy
SP Chris Young
SP Greg Maddux
SP Randy Wolf
SP Mark Prior
CL Trevor Hoffman

While it didn’t get a tenth of the publicity the Mets’ collapse did, San Diego’s collapse last year was nearly as gruesome and carried an air of finality for a team coming off two division titles (one of which was won, granted, with an 82–80 record). The Padres have the same basic strengths they’ve had for years — Cy Young winner Jake Peavy, an unspectacular but reasonable lineup built around first baseman Adrian Gonzalez, and an appetite for risk. They’re willing to put heavy burdens on old players such as Greg Maddux and Jim Edmonds, and to gamble on reclamation projects such as Mark Prior and Randy Wolf. But while these moves have generally tended to work out, they seem to have taken on more risk than reward this year. There’s little reason to think that Edmonds or the similarly ancient Brian Giles can drive a lineup these days, or that Prior or Wolf will be healthy enough to contribute much. That leaves the Padres behind three strong teams and hoping for an awful lot of luck.

San Francisco Giants
2007 REC: 71–91 • 2008 (PROJECTED) 57–105

Projected Lineup

LF Dave Roberts
SS Omar Vizquel
RF Randy Winn
CF Aaron Rowand
2B Ray Durham
3B Rich Aurilia
C Bengie Molina
1B Dan Ortmeier
SP Barry Zito
SP Matt Cain
SP Tim Lincecum
SP Noah Lowry
SP Kevin Correia
CL Brian Wilson

The Mitchell report, a generally ridiculous document, did perform some valuable services, one of which was showing the total complicity of Giants management in the open-air drug dealing that was going on in their locker room. If one cares about such things, one will be delighted to note that this is an utterly crippled franchise, with basically no assets of any kind other than their very nice ballpark and young pitchers Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum, who could very well pitch 380 innings with a 3.50 ERA and lose 30 or more games. Of this team’s eight regulars, six are 33 or older, and only one, Aaron Rowand, could plausibly start for a first division club. The stupidity and pointlessness of running out a lineup both this old and this hopeless is beyond description.

For years, observers pointed out that Barry Bonds was single-handedly propping up a 100-loss team. This assertion will be proved this year. The Giants may or may not finish with the worst record in the sport, depending on how things play out, but whatever happens, the general manager, Brian Sabean, and the owner, Peter Magowan, have seized the advantage from Isiah Thomas and the Dolan family and branded themselves the most ludicrous clowns in team sports. Congratulate them if you see them on the street.

Predictions

NL MVP
Mark Teixeira, Braves

NL Rookie of the Year
Geovany Soto, Cubs

NL Cy Young
Johan Santana, Mets

NL Manager of the Year
Lou Piniella, Cubs

NLDS
Mets d. Arizona, Chicago d. Atlanta

NLCS
Chicago d. Mets

World Series
Boston d. Chicago