Believe It, Fans: Wagner Is as Tough as Ever

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As things go, it would probably be understating the case to say that Mets fans have been disappointed by Billy Wagner this season, and if they haven’t, they’ve been something close to it. Wagner has been effective, ranking third in the league in saves and nailing down most of the close ones for the Mets, but he hasn’t been quite as dominant as expected. There’s a sense of slight anxiety whenever he comes into a game, not quite what you’d expect at this point in the season from an elite reliever who came into New York with his credentials, and probably no one would be entirely surprised to see him get bombed in the playoffs.

Some of this is due to unrealistic expectations. Give a man a $43 million contract that pays him more per season than any other reliever in history, and people are going to expect him to perform like Mariano Rivera. Hype a man up as having a 100 mph fastball, and people are going to be disappointed when he sits at 95.

Some of it is also due to his implosion against the Yankees on May 20, when he came in with a four-run lead, walked three, gave up two hits while getting only one out, and lost the game. Rightly or not, that was seen as the first test of his manhood, moxy, grit, and so on as a Met, and he didn’t pass; that he came back the next night and shut the Yankees down wasn’t really as important as having been bombed in the first place.

A quick scan over his stat line would seem to confirm that while Wagner’s been good, he hasn’t been great.His 2.44 ERA is strong but hardly otherworldly for a one-inning pitcher.In 53 games he’s struck out 73, which is excellent, walked 20, which is a lot, and given up six home runs, which is quite a lot for a closer in that span of time.The facts would seem to be with the disappointed masses.

As is often the case, though, there’s a forest-and-trees angle to the story. No, Wagner hasn’t been a clear Cy Young contender, but he’s still been excellent, and perhaps even the best reliever in the league.

First, I don’t think Wagner’s statistical line is much different than what should have been expected. The one weakness in his game has always been the home run; in no season as a closer has he ever given up less than five, and his career rate is about one per ten innings, same as this year’s. He throws a high fastball in the upper 90s; he’s going to give up some home runs. It shouldn’t shock anyone.

Second, aside from that Yankees game, he really has been quite dominant. He’s given up runs in nine games, and in exactly three of them (the Yankees game, the June 21 game against the Reds, and the August 1 game against the Marlins) has he been the clear cause of the loss. Take the Yankees game out of the equation and his ERA would be 1.52. You can’t just throw out bad performances (“Chris Woodward has been an MVP candidate in at-bats in which he didn’t make an out!”), but reliever ERA’s can be quite misleading. Between the somewhat artificially inflated ERA and the fact that he’s on pace to have pitched truly badly in all of four games this year, it’s fair to say Wagner’s better than the line on the back of his baseball card.

Last and most important is that Wagner has been put in tighter spots than any closer other than San Diego’s Trevor Hoffman. Leverage index is a statistical measure of this based on play-by-play data, the idea being that since coming into a game in the bottom of the ninth up by two with the bases loaded and one out is more important than coming on in the same situation with none on and two out, there should be a way to credit pitchers who do the former rather than the latter.

A leverage index of 1.00 is neutral, reflecting the importance of the start of a game; Wagner’s is 2.28, the second-highest in baseball among relievers. What that means is that his performance has come in the tightest, most crucial situations; by comparison, Toronto closer B.J. Ryan, who has a 1.44 ERA, has a leverage index of 1.25.One way to think of the importance of leverage is to multiply it by a closer’s innings total. A starter’s leverage will almost always be around 1.00; a closer with leverage of 2.00 is, on average, pitching innings twice as important as those of a starter, so his 70 innings as a closer are roughly equivalent in value to 140 pitched by a starter. So you might say that Wagner’s pitching has had value comparable to 125 innings from a starter, while Ryan’s has had value comparable to 75. It’s a big difference.

What this means for the Mets is that, while he’s not quite getting credit for it for whatever reasons, Wagner has been proving all season how tough he is in the tight spots. He may walk three, give up two hits, and get one out in a big playoff game, but I think he’s more liable to just mow through everyone, as that’s mainly what he’s done this year. It would be nice if he threw 110 mph and never gave up a run, but as is he’s doing more than fine — better, even, than Braden Looper and Armando Benitez.


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