When New York’s teams met in this year’s first iteration of the Subway Series a month ago, both were scraping along, losing more than they were winning, and I was able to describe the two clubs as bums fighting over a ham sandwich in an alley. Since then, Willie Randolph has been fired, Joba Chamberlain has graduated from the bullpen to the rotation, and both teams have become less pitiful. They’re now like two men in an open grave, each frantically scrambling to climb over the other and reach safety.

For the Yankees, the problem is that their fate isn’t really in their own hands, because Boston and Tampa Bay are both on pace to win 98 games. The Red Sox, of course, have a much better chance of doing so than do the Rays, who have never lost fewer than 90 in a season, but we’re deep enough into the year that pace counts. Even if the Rays play .500 ball the rest of the way, they’ll reach 90 wins. Given their early struggles, the Yankees will have to play something near .600 ball for the rest of the year to make a strong run at a playoff spot, even if the talented young Rays slack off the rest of the year, and they’ll have to do it without ace Chien-Ming Wang. This may happen, especially as the Bombers have 21 games left against the two teams ahead of them in the American League East, but they’ll have to play relentlessly well starting now.

The Mets are in a far more dire position. Even with a 38-39 record, they’re within range of a playoff spot, but the next two weeks will likely make or break their season. After the four games against the Yankees, they have four against St. Louis, the National League wild card leaders, and then four against Philadelphia, the National League East leaders. They’ll be going into this stretch punting several spots in the lineup — the three-headed corner outfield of Trot Nixon, Marlon Anderson, and Endy Chavez is an atrocity, catcher Brian Schneider simply can’t hit, and Carlos Delgado has followed on a first two months in which he hit a putrid .230 AVG/.307 OBA/.389 SLG with a June line of .230/.302/.414, making it clear that the likable slugger is done as a viable starter.

With the offense having done nothing during a series loss to Seattle, the worst team in baseball, outside the first three innings of Wednesday’s game, the Mets are starting to look a bit burnt around the edges. Luckily the Yankees will be rolling out a truly bizarre assortment of pitchers over the next three days. Dan Giese, who will start the first game of Friday’s split doubleheader at Yankee Stadium, is a 31-year-old not only making his second major league start, but just his 12th professional one. Sidney Ponson, who will start the nightcap at Shea Stadium, is a terrible pitcher best known for being a Dutch knight and getting into various scrapes with the law. He was released by Texas this month following his first good run in years for, according to GM Jon Daniels, “disrespecting teammates and club personnel.” Andy Pettitte will start Saturday, and Darrell Rasner, who’s allowed 28 base runners in 13.2 IP over his last three starts and is showing distinct signs of turning into a pumpkin, will start Sunday. If the Mets can’t put runs on the board this weekend, it will be a really bad sign.

Even if they do whack Sir Sidney and Co. around, though, they’ll be guaranteed nothing. Friday, Mike Pelfrey, who’s given up two or fewer runs in four of his last five starts but remains very much a work in progress, is starting the earlier game, and Pedro Martinez, who’s had one really good start all year, is starting the later one. Saturday, Johan Santana will take on Pettitte in the best matchup of the series. Sunday, Oliver Perez will be going. He pitched a gem against the Yanks last month, but he’s been either useless or unhittable this year, and the former more often. (Hence his 5.29 ERA and league lead in hit batsmen.)

One can imagine these four running the table this weekend, but one can also imagine all but Santana imploding against a formidable offense. Since catcher Jorge Posada’s return from the disabled list June 5, the Yankees been scoring 5.4 runs a game, up a full run from what they’d done to that point in the year. With the offense finally in first gear, they’re capable of punishing Mets pitching.

Both teams need to win these games for reasons far more important than bragging rights in a rather contrived rivalry, but the burden rests more heavily on the Mets. They have less breathing room right now and would have far fewer creditable reasons for a series loss, given the bedraggled starters they’ll be facing over the next three days. If they can’t win this weekend, when exactly are they going to start?

tmarchman@nysun.com