Expect the Mets To Win the Pennant

This article is from the archive of The New York Sun before the launch of its new website in 2022. The Sun has neither altered nor updated such articles but will seek to correct any errors, mis-categorizations or other problems introduced during transfer.

The New York Sun

While you might not have been able to tell by reading the papers the last few days, the best baseball team in New York is still playing, and they’re going to win the pennant.

It was clear from the first days of his tenure with the Mets that Willie Randolph was not just another in the long line of simpletons and knaves who have traditionally managed the club, but a real manager, in the line of Davey Johnson and Bobby Valentine. We saw it last year, as he imposed real standards on a club that had become mired in a culture of mediocrity and patiently nurtured David Wright and Jose Reyes through their first full major league seasons. We saw it this year as he won 97 games with a team that entered spring training with no second baseman or right fielder and only three sure starters, and subsequently lost its ace and its best setup man. We saw it when on the eve of the playoffs he lost his best remaining starter and simply adopted a new strategy based around going to his relievers as early as possible.

There was nothing preordained about the effortlessness with which the Mets overcame real crises all year. Teams have collapsed under less pressure than that the Mets have felt since the losses of the two pitchers who were expected to lead them to a championship. The Mets are prohibitive favorites going into a series against a team that has made the playoffs six out of the last seven years, features the reigning winners of the National League Cy Young and Most Valuable Player awards (both of whom are likely to be announced as repeat winners later this month), and whose manager, Tony LaRussa, has won more games than all but two skippers in history. They’re favorites despite the fact that Oliver Perez, whose earned run average over the last two seasons is above 6.00, will be starting. That’s what Randolph has done for this team.

On the broadest level, this year’s Mets are actually quite similar to the traditional Cardinals team, built around a core of superstar talent surrounded by adequate role players whose weaknesses are scrupulously hidden by a fastidious manager. The differences largely come down to health and luck. Cards ace Chris Carpenter has stayed healthy, while Martinez has not, which marks a signal advantage for the Redbirds; on the other hand, key Cardinals like Scott Rolen and Jim Edmonds may not even be available for parts of this series, while their opposite numbers on the Mets, David Wright and Carlos Beltran, are fit and ready to go. Similarly, the Mets enjoy an advantage because their supporting players, like John Maine and Jose Valentin, have greatly outperformed expectations, while Cardinals like Jason Marquis and Ronnie Belliard have been execrable.

For the Mets, the key to success will be simple. The starters will need to pitch aggressively early in the game, going as hard as they can for as long as they can in the knowledge that the staggeringly deep and diverse bullpen will be ready as soon as needed. The Mets’ starters have either marginal command or marginal stuff (or, in Steve Trachsel’s case, both); what they need to avoid is pacing themselves the way they would if they were trying to go seven innings. The softer throwers should throw a little harder, knowing that if they run out of gas early it’s not a problem; the harder throwers, Maine and Perez, should pound the strike zone with their best stuff, worrying less about finesse and strategy than about attacking hitters.

Past that, these games will be largely about managerial tactics. For one, the Mets shouldn’t really pitch to the extraordinary Albert Pujols at all; he’s not only an unfathomably productive hitter, on par with the likes of Joe DiMaggio and Frank Thomas at a similar age, but he doesn’t have any weaknesses that can be exploited. He hits home runs about as often as he strikes out, and the gap between him and the other Cardinals is enormous. He simply shouldn’t see anything to hit all series. For another, the Mets shouldn’t try to play much small ball; the Cards have a truly superb infield defense anchored by Molina, an exceptionally alert and strong-armed catcher, and their pitching isn’t really very good. Randolph should work for good matchups and let his hitters hit; if he does that and the starters execute good game plans, the Mets will dominate. The specific matchup problems that made the Dodgers look like a decent bet to upset the Mets aren’t there; this is a meeting between like teams, and the Mets, who won 14 more games in the regular season, are simply much better. I don’t think the series will be competitive.


The New York Sun

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