Finals Will Expose the Flaws of Last Two Standing

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The New York Sun

On Monday evening, the Stanley Cup Finals will begin, with the Ottawa Senators traveling to Anaheim to take on the Ducks. It promises to be a very compelling series between two very deserving participants, but though the level of play will be extremely high, it’s probable that the victor will be the team that best disguises its most critical flaws.

In today’s NHL, composing a dominant club is all but impossible. Gone are the days when the only debate in the West was whether it would be the Detroit Red Wings or the Colorado Avalanche who would win their seemingly annual Conference Finals series. While the Red Wings did reach the Western Conference Finals, their spot there was anything but assured, and the Avalanche missed the playoffs altogether.

This season, no fewer than nine clubs entered the postseason with a realistic chance to hoist Lord Stanley’s cherished chalice. In any environment where there are that many legitimate contenders, it is all but certain that each of them will have an Achilles’ heel for opponents to attack. Here’s a look at how the Senators and Ducks match up:

FORWARDS

Ducks: An injury to Chris Kunitz disrupted the Ducks’ top line, but Teemu Selanne and Andy McDonald finally started to get back on track late in the series against the Red Wings. They have enjoyed reasonable success playing with both Brad May and Todd Marchant, and it’s possible that Kunitz will return at some point during the Finals to provide a nice boost. The second line for the Ducks features three youngsters—Ryan Getzlaf, Corey Perry, and Dustin Penner—and has been their most consistent scoring line throughout these playoffs. But the differentiating factor for the Ducks up front is their devastating checking line, featuring Selke Trophy finalist Sami Pahlsson flanked by Rob Niedermayer and Travis Moen. Without question, they will draw the assignment of neutralizing the Senators’ dangerous top line.

Senators: Much has been made of the Sens’ impressive scoring depth, but in truth, they will only go as far as their first line will carry them. The trio of Dany Heatley, Jason Spezza, and captain Daniel Alfredsson has combined for 58 points, nearly one-half of the Sens’ team total (128 points). Known primarily for his playmaking skills, Spezza has improved his play away from the puck this season, and his plus-7 playoff rating is tied for secondbest on the Sens. One of the few remaining NHLers to use a wooden stick, Spezza is the perfect complement to dangerous snipers Heatley and Alfredsson. The top line’s production has dwarfed that of the remaining forwards, and there is no doubt whatsoever that the Sens’ supporting cast will need to step up if they’re to top the Ducks. With Pahlsson’s line neutralizing Spezza’s, it will be critical that Mike Fisher, Mike Comrie, Chris Kelly, and Antoine Vermette carry their share of the offensive load.

Advantage: Ducks

DEFENSE

Ducks: The Ducks’ defense is incredibly top-heavy, boasting two of this year’s three Norris Trophy finalists (captain Scott Niedermayer and Chris Pronger). And when the unexpected happens (see: Pronger’s suspension in Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals), Francois Beauchemin and Sean O’Donnell have done a fine job taking on an increased workload. But the Ducks’ third-pair defensemen—Kent Huskins and Joe DiPenta—have rarely seen the ice through the first three rounds (averaging 11 and eight minutes per game, respectively). If they’re pressed into duty at an inopportune moment, it could prove costly for Anaheim.

Senators: Without a doubt, the Sens’ defense (from top to bottom) is the finest in this year’s playoffs. Wade Redden is its anchor and the very capable quarterback of the power play, while Anton Volchenkov has emerged as a devastating physical presence. Sophomore Andrej Meszaros and offseason acquisition Joe Corvo both struggled mightily during the first half of the regular season, but they have been rock-solid ever since. Chris Phillips, though he’s never lived up to his advanced billing (first overall pick in the 1996 NHL Entry Draft), has developed into a very solid stay-at-home defenseman. With Tom Preissing as a sixth option—he posted a gaudy plus-40 rating this season — the Sens’ blue line corps is loaded.

Advantage: Senators

GOALTENDING

Ducks: J-S Giguere won the Conn Smythe Trophy in 2003 as he backstopped the then-Mighty Ducks all the way to Game 7 of the Cup Finals (where they fell to the Devils). This season, he’s got Scott Niedermayer and Chris Pronger playing in front of him, and he’s been no less spectacular than he was in 2003. Giguere outplayed Dominik Hasek in the Western Conference Finals, and with talented backup Ilya Bryzgalov waiting in the wings, the Ducks’ goaltending is stellar.

Senators: If the Senators have a glaring weakness, it’s right here. Ray Emery played extremely well through the first three rounds, making the first save virtually every time. But perhaps more important, the enormous rebounds he was prone to surrendering were a non-factor, both because of the Sens’ tremendous defense and because they were fortunate not to face a crease-crashing team through the first three rounds. Emery won’t be so lucky against the burly Ducks, who can be expected to generate lots of traffic in front of his goal. If he keeps on surrendering those juicy rebounds against Anaheim, look for the Ducks to capitalize.

Advantage: Ducks

SPECIAL TEAMS

Ducks: The Ducks’ play with the man advantage has been inconsistent, but with the talent they’ve got both up front and on the points, it’s probable that their success rate will rise from its current 15.3%. The Ducks’ penalty-killing work against the Red Wings was sporadic at best, showing them to be susceptible to the kind of tic-tac-toe passing they can also expect to see from the Senators. The determining factor here will likely be how well Pahlsson is able to neutralize Spezza, particularly in the face-off circle.

Senators: The Senators’ power play has clicked at an impressive 20% clip during these playoffs, with the top-line trio of Spezza, Heatley, and Alfredsson the primary reason. They have combined for nine of Ottawa’s 14 goals with the man advantage, and with Redden and Corvo working the point, form a nearly unstoppable combination. Interestingly, 10 of Ottawa’s 14 PP goals came on the road, this despite the fact that they received six more opportunities with the man advantage at home. The Sens’ penalty killing has been on par with the Ducks’ thus far, but again, Emery’s failure to control his rebounds will prove costly here where it didn’t before.

Advantage: Even

SERIES PREDICTION

These are two excellent teams, both well deserving of their shot at Cup glory. The Ducks have been among the favorites since last summer, when they acquired Chris Pronger from the Oilers. Meanwhile, the Senators bounced back nicely from the losses of Zdeno Chara and Martin Havlat, emerging as one of the NHL’s finest clubs in the season’s second half and playoffs. This promises to be a very close series, nearly too close to call. But in the end, the Ducks’ edge in goal and up front trumps the Sens’ better blue line depth.

Prediction: Ducks in seven.

Mr. Greenstein is the editor in chief of InsideHockey.com.


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