Haren’s Ideal for Mets, but A’s Are Smart Enough To Know This
This article is from the archive of The New York Sun before the launch of its new website in 2022. The Sun has neither altered nor updated such articles but will seek to correct any errors, mis-categorizations or other problems introduced during transfer.
It’s been a quiet off-season for the Mets so far, which is an entirely good thing in a ridiculously overheated market. Aside from bringing back a few useful veterans and signing Moises Alou to the Cliff Floyd memorial roster spot, the club didn’t do much until this week, when they pawned Brian Bannister off on the Royals in exchange for flamethrowing reliever Ambiorix Burgos. The deal was roughly the baseball equivalent of the scene in “American Psycho” where Patrick Bateman taunts a homeless man with a quickly-withdrawn offer of money and help before stabbing him — happy news for Mets loyalists.
It looks like Omar Minaya may continue the calculating, amoral rampage, as last night, Fox Sports’ reliable Ken Rosenthal confirmed rumors the Mets are engaged in trade discussions with the A’s that would bring starter Dan Haren to Shea Stadium. This is good news.
Haren is a 26-year-old starter who has, over the past two years, pitched 440 innings with a 3.93 ERA, with peripheral statistics that support the performance. (He’s not a creature of a big ballpark and a great defense, in other words.) Possessed of perfectly fine but hardly overwhelming stuff, he’s something like a young, right-handed Andy Pettitte. On a per-inning basis he’s a good no. 3 starter or a passable no. 2, but his durability bumps him up a notch, and he’s ranked among the 15 or 20 most valuable starters in the game the past two years. With no injury concerns or off-field issues, Haren’s exactly the kind of young veteran every team would want to stick right into their rotation. Truthfully, he’s a good bet to outperform pitchers like Barry Zito and Jason Schmidt over the next couple of years.
Best of all, Haren is signed to an exceedingly reasonable contract. He’s owed $12.65 million over the next three years, and the A’s hold an option on his services for 2010 that could be worth as much as $7.75 million if he reaches a certain innings threshold. By way of comparison, free agent Gil Meche — who has never pitched as many as 190 innings in a season and whose 4.48 ERA this past year was the best he’s ever put up in a season in which he threw at least 100 innings — signed a five-year, $55 million contract yesterday. Haren will make at least $50 million less over the next few years than he would if he were a free agent.
Unhappily for Minaya and Mets fans, A’s general manager Billy Beane is at least as aware of this as, say, I am, and so if he does decide to trade Haren, he’ll need quite a lot for him. One would assume that top prospect Lastings Milledge would have to be part of any deal, and that the A’s would need a replacement starting pitcher (perhaps Aaron Heilman), and another top prospect. Would such a price be worth paying?
The answer so obviously seems to be “yes” that it’s not really worth discussing. Milledge is a good prospect, but he’s not going to realize his full potential with Carlos Beltran blocking him in center field, which means he has more value to the Mets as a trading chip than he does as a ballplayer. That he behaved like a jackass this year makes the decision that much easier. Assuming the pitcher is Heilman, again, that is something that doesn’t take much thought — he’s an excellent reliever, but the Mets have a lot of excellent relievers, and whether or not he’s capable of starting, he’s not going to get a shot to do so in New York. With these two, it’s a classic win-win situation: The A’s are positioned to perhaps get more value out of two cheap young players by putting them in roles the Mets can’t or won’t — possibly enough value to make Haren worth trading.
For the deal to be worth making for the A’s, that prospect would have to be a pretty good one, rather than some generic and superfluous youngster, and that’s where the problem arises. The Mets aren’t going to trade a truly highgrade young player like Fernando Martinez, and that leaves them with one sort of top prospect: The young pitcher. There are issues here, though. Phil Humber has proved to be somewhat injury-prone, and Mike Pelfrey (who shouldn’t be traded) can’t be dealt until January. It’s not clear, then, exactly who would fill out this deal.
Because of this, and because Haren is so valuable that the A’s — a contending team that just lost their ace to free agency — shouldn’t opt to trade him, I would be stunned if a deal actually went through. It just doesn’t make enough sense for the A’s unless they greatly overvalue Lastings Milledge and Aaron Heilman. (I, of course, may be undervaluing them.) While further Mets victimization of the American League would be highly entertaining, it’s best for fans not to get their hopes up too high. These are two smart teams, and neither is likely to make a deal that doesn’t make sense. At least the Mets are rich enough to pay Barry Zito, who may not be any better than Haren but costs nothing more than money.