Hot-Stove League Winners and Losers
This article is from the archive of The New York Sun before the launch of its new website in 2022. The Sun has neither altered nor updated such articles but will seek to correct any errors, mis-categorizations or other problems introduced during transfer.
It’s been a fun off-season so far. Baseball’s transaction logs have looked less like those of a multibillion dollar concern run by skilled professionals than those of a particularly busy fantasy league. Trades and signings that would get fans laughed off a barstool have been consummated, and for the last month, no proposal has been too asinine or unlikely to come true.
In a market where general managers have been spending like gangsters eager to launder their ill-gotten cash, there have been quite a few bargains. That makes sense, given the seemingly tenuous relationship of value to the quality of the player to which it’s fixed. Drastic overvaluations have been matched by equally drastic undervaluations, and the teams that have taken advantage of these are the big winners this off-season.
All laurels and hosannas go to the Braves and Cardinals, who gave up nearly nothing to acquire ace pitchers from the A’s. The Braves gave up a good Double-A pitcher, a fourth outfielder, and a middle reliever for Tim Hudson, who has a career 92-39 record. The Cardinals got left-hander Mark Mulder, who brings an 81-42 career mark, for two swingmen and an A-ball catcher who can’t catch. Sometimes, it’s true, the prospects you deal turn into Jeff Bagwell; but over the long term, teams trading minor leaguers for established major league stars come out far ahead.
Trades aren’t a zero-sum game. Given their payroll constraints and concerns about the health and continued effectiveness of Mulder and Hudson, the A’s may in the end prove wise for having cashed in two great players for a couple of lottery tickets and a few rosin bags. Still, given that Yugos are going at Mercedes prices this winter, you’d think GM Billy Beane could have gotten more lottery tickets. Instead, he junked his chances at contention in 2005 for what look like negligible returns, while bringing in expensive veteran catcher Jason Kendall. For that, the A’s are big losers.
The Braves and Cards look even better when you compare their new acquisitions to the Yankees’. Hudson will make less money this coming year – $6.5 million – than the man he is replacing in the Atlanta rotation, Jaret Wright, whom the Yankees gave a three-year, $21 million deal. Mulder will cost the Cardinals $13.25 million through the 2006 season, compared with the $20 million the Yankees will pay Carl Pavano over the next two years.
Looking over the free agent market at the beginning of the off-season, I thought that Adrian Beltre and Pedro Martinez were the only two players who might be worth overpaying for. Substantial credit goes to the Mariners and Mets for acquiring these two without overpaying at all.
Pedro’s contract has been discussed at length in this space; suffice to say that if a mystery pitcher like Pavano – who took advantage of the silly, marketsetting contract the Mets gave Kris Benson – are getting $10 million a year, then Martinez, the winner of two of the last three American League ERA crowns, is worth at least his $12 million price tag.
The market has also established a value of about $12 million a year for injured corner infielders like Troy Glaus and Richie Sexson. In that context, $13 million a year is a ridiculous bargain for Beltre, a 25-year-old third baseman with the defensive skills of a passable shortstop, coming off a season in which he led the majors in home runs.
Having given the Mariners due praise for signing Beltre, however, they must receive their due excoriation for the ludicrous deal given the 30-year-old Sexson. A good, but not great player coming off an injury, with minimal defensive value and whose one real skill – power – will be minimized by his new home park, Sexson shows every sign of becoming a significant liability for the Mariners.
Arizona gave similarly insane deals to Glaus and pitcher Russ Ortiz, both of whom have giant, blinking signs reading “Damaged Goods” hanging over their heads. The Diamondbacks are by far the biggest losers this off-season, even before accounting for their impending trade of Randy Johnson to the Yankees in a complicated multi-team deal that will net them a collection of expensive flotsam, highlighted by two injured players (Brad Penny and Shawn Green) with negative trade value.
Should that deal go through, the Yankees won’t necessarily be winners, however. They overspent for Wright and Pavano, but money isn’t really a concern in the Bronx. The problem is that while those two and Johnson will give the team a far more stable rotation than the 2004 edition, it might not be very good. Pavano and Wright have dubious track records; the 41-year-old Johnson, far from being a savior, may end up being Kevin Brown v. 2.0.
Taking a longer view, the Yankees’ wearyingly self-parodic acquisitions are becoming increasingly irrelevant every year. At this time a year ago, Javier Vazquez was the most coveted young starter in baseball; after a trade to the Yankees, with whom he signed a lucrative contract extension, he made the All-Star team. Then he had a poor second half.
Only the Yankees would or could rid themselves of such a player after a couple of bad months. No one would be surprised if next year they ended up buying out Pavano, Wright, and Johnson and putting Steve Howe in uniform. In any case, Yankee fans who actually enjoy some semblance of an emotional connection to the players on their team are the big losers, as they always are.
In Boston, meanwhile, the defending world champions look to be running in place. I don’t have any strong opinions on their signings of pitcher Matt Clement and shortstop Edgar Renteria, two quality players who might not be quite up to the roles they’ll be taking on for the Red Sox. Neither is so important as catcher Jason Varitek, whom they badly need to re-sign but who seems to want a contract much longer than what they should give him. In Boston as in Los Angeles – where an awful lot of dead contracts are being shed – all the pieces will have to fall into place before any judgments are made.
In this season of glamour franchises making massive deals, though, the best time has been had by the Milwaukee Brewers. They traded overrated closer Danny Kolb for a pitching prospect arguably as good as any the Braves or Cardinals gave up in the Hudson and Mulder deals. They dealt superfluous infielder Keith Ginter for two interesting A’s prospects. They signed veteran catcher Damian Miller to a reasonable three-year deal. They heisted left fielder Carlos Lee from the White Sox while ridding themselves of junk players Scott Podesdnik and Luis Vizcaino.
Consistently selling high and buying low, Brewers GM Doug Melvin has put together a potential contender without anyone noticing. Any fantasy GM can write a check to Russ Ortiz. None of them could do what Melvin has.