How the Shootout Affects the Standings

This article is from the archive of The New York Sun before the launch of its new website in 2022. The Sun has neither altered nor updated such articles but will seek to correct any errors, mis-categorizations or other problems introduced during transfer.

The New York Sun

The 2004–05 lockout brought about tremendous change for the NHL, both in terms of its economic structure and its rule book. Some of the changes were designed to work in concert to help all 30 teams remain competitive despite the fact that some clubs are far more profitable (the Rangers, Flyers, and Maple Leafs, for example) than others (the Predators, Capitals, and Coyotes). Others, like the crackdown on obstruction and interference, were implemented in order to increase scoring.

Of all the changes and modifications made, perhaps none has been more impactful than the implementation of a shootout to ensure that every regular season game has a winner. By eliminating ties, the league has certainly done a fine job of catering to American sports fans, for whom deadlocked final scores are akin to kissing one’s sister. But interestingly, its effect on the standings is surprisingly skewed, with one conference’s playoff seeding affected far more than the other’s.

With that in mind, here’s a look at where the NHL’s standings would be today without the shootout.

Of course, it’s thoroughly impossible to prognosticate how games might have been coached differently without the shootout. But given the fact that teams averaged 10.47 ties a year during the four seasons before the lockout (between 2000–01 and 2003–04) and they’re averaging exactly 10 “ties” this season (using our adjusted standings, through an average of 79 games played), history certainly plays in these results’ favor.

Perhaps the most interesting finding was that while the Eastern Conference standings would be shuffled dramatically using the traditional format (including ties), the West would effectively remain the same. But while the shootout significantly widens the gap between the first-place Red Wings and last-place Kings in the West, the parity in the East doesn’t change.

Of all the teams in the Eastern Conference, perhaps none have benefited more from the shootout than the Rangers. Currently in sixth place in the real-life Eastern Conference with 91 points, the Blueshirts fall all the way back to 10th place in our adjusted standings. The Rangers’ eight shootout victories are second most in the Eastern Conference, behind only the Atlanta Thrashers, and so it’s of little surprise that removing the one-on-one postgame exhibition has a deleterious effect on their standing.

And on the other side of the equation are the Carolina Hurricanes. Currently leading the Southeast Division with 90 points (in the actual standings), the ‘Canes’ point total is only eighth best in the Eastern Conference, and only two points more than their division rival Washington Capitals have accumulated. As a result, critics of the otherwise atrocious Southeast Division regularly bemoan their guaranteed high standing. But in our tie-adjusted standings, the ‘Canes’ spot in the playoffs seems far more deserved; indeed, their 40 non-shootout victories are the most in the East.

Out West, with the exception of the Calgary Flames and Vancouver Canucks swapping places (the Flames are two points ahead in the real-world standings), the top eight seeds are identical in both versions. In our “old-school” version of the standings, the ninthplace Predators are tied with the Flames, Calgary eking out the eighth spot by virtue of an extra non-shootout victory.

But though most of the West’s standings would remain intact were the shootout replaced with the traditional tie, one Western team is the biggest beneficiary of the shootout. The Edmonton Oilers’ 15 shootout victories are by far the most in the league (the Atlanta Thrashers’ nine shootout victories are second-best). Without the shootout, Edmonton would be 11 points out of the final playoff spot in the West. But with the shootout, they find themselves only two points out with two games remaining, a difficult but not impossible hurdle to climb.

Though the shootout’s perceived importance may be greater than its actual impact, the Edmonton Oilers have made clear that shootout excellence can provide a very important edge. It seems a fait accompli that teams will eventually begin to employ shootout specialists, taking a simple measure to ensure that they have the advantage when competing for what can turn out to be critical points in the standings. Brendan Shanahan and Nigel Dawes have been effective for the Rangers, while Phil Kessel has been the Bruins’ top marksman. Not surprisingly, four Oilers (Ales Hemsky, Shawn Horcoff, Sam Gagner, and Robert Nilsson) are among the top 30 shootout scorers this season.

For traditionalists, the shootout has been a target of much derision over the past three seasons. But as it’s turned out, two of the league’s most traditional teams — “Original Six” members New York and Boston (Bruins) — have been the biggest beneficiaries of the tie-breaking exhibitions. And given that the presence of those teams in the postseason would unquestionably mean higher television ratings than if their places were taken by the Washington Capitals and Buffalo Sabres, it seems that the league’s larger goal has been accomplished through the most unorthodox of means.

Mr. Greenstein is the editor in chief of InsideHockey.com.

EASTERN CONFERENCE STANDINGS (WITHOUT SHOOTOUT)

1. Pittsburgh Penguins* 79 39-29-11 89

2. Montreal Canadiens* 79 39-29-11 89

3. Carolina Hurricanes* 79 40-34-5 85

4. Ottawa Senators 79 39-32-8 86

5. New Jersey Devils 78 37-31-10 84

6. Philadelphia Flyers 79 37-33-9 83

7. Washington Capitals 79 36-35-8 80

8. Buffalo Sabres 79 34-33-12 80

9. Boston Bruins 79 34-33-12 80

10. New York Rangers 78 32-31-15 79

11. Florida Panthers 79 31-37-11 73

12. Toronto Maple Leafs 79 33-40-6 72

13. New York Islanders 79 30-42-7 67

14. Tampa Bay Lightning 78 29-46-3 61

15. Atlanta Thrashers 79 23-41-15 61

WESTERN CONFERENCE STANDINGS (WITHOUT SHOOTOUT)

1. Detroit Red Wings* 79 47-22-10 104

2. San Jose Sharks* 79 42-25-12 96

3. Minnesota Wild* 80 40-30-10 90

4. Anaheim Ducks 80 38-28-14 90

5. Dallas Stars 79 38-33-8 84

6. Colorado Avalanche 80 36-35-9 81

7. Vancouver Canucks 79 33-31-15 81

8. Calgary Flames 79 37-36-6 80

9. Nashville Predators 79 36-35-8 80

10. Chicago Blackhawks 79 33-37-9 75

11. Phoenix Coyotes 79 32-37-10 74

12. Columbus Blue Jackets 79 31-37-11 73

13. Edmonton Oilers 80 25-36-19 69

14. St. Louis Blues 78 28-42-8 64

15. Los Angeles Kings 79 26-45-8 60

EASTERN CONFERENCE STANDINGS (WITH SHOOTOUT)

1. Pittsburgh Penguins* 79 46-26-7 99

2. Montreal Canadiens* 79 44-25-10 98

3. Carolina Hurricanes* 79 42-31-6 90

4. New Jersey Devils 78 43-28-7 93

5. Ottawa Senators 79 42-29-8 92

6. New York Rangers 78 40-27-11 91

7. Boston Bruins 79 40-28-11 91

8. Philadelphia Flyers 79 40-28-11 91

9. Washington Capitals 79 40-31-8 88

10. Buffalo Sabres 79 37-30-12 86

11. Toronto Maple Leafs 79 36-33-10 82

12. Florida Panthers 79 36-34-9 81

13. New York Islanders 79 34-37-8 76

14. Atlanta Thrashers 79 32-39-8 72

15. Tampa Bay Lightning 78 31-38-9 71

WESTERN CONFERENCE STANDINGS (WITH SHOOTOUT)

1. Detroit Red Wings* 79 52-20-7 111

2. San Jose Sharks* 79 48-21-10 106

3. Minnesota Wild* 80 43-28-9 95

4. Anaheim Ducks 80 45-27-8 98

5. Dallas Stars 79 43-29-7 93

6. Colorado Avalanche 80 42-31-7 91

7. Calgary Flames 79 40-29-10 90

8. Vancouver Canucks 79 39-30-10 88

9. Nashville Predators 79 39-31-9 87

10. Edmonton Oilers 80 40-34-6 86

11. Chicago Blackhawks 79 38-33-8 84

12. Phoenix Coyotes 79 37-36-6 80

13. Columbus Blue Jackets 79 34-33-12 80

14. St. Louis Blues 78 31-35-12 74

15. Los Angeles Kings 79 31-41-7 69

*Denotes Division Leader


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