The old adage “history is bound to repeat itself” is triply true when speaking of those who fail to learn from their mistakes. By inking Alexander Ovechkin to a 13-year, $124 million contract last week, Washington Capitals owner Ted Leonsis demonstrated with one fleet stroke of his fountain pen that the NHL’s owners learned absolutely nothing from the events that led to the 2004–05 lockout (or, for that matter, the events that led to the 1994–95 lockout). When given the choice, NHL owners will spend more on players than they should, whether the deals are negotiated by a savvy player agent or — in the case of Ovechkin — a tenacious mother.

Back in 2001, Leonsis pulled off a blockbuster deal with the Pittsburgh Penguins to acquire Jaromir Jagr, a deal that at least initially paid large dividends. Capitals home attendance rose by nearly 2,000 fans per game in Jagr’s first season in our nation’s capital, and the future seemed quite bright. But Jagr’s seven-year, $77 million contract quickly became an albatross Leonsis needed to unload. The enigmatic forward was dealt to the Rangers late in the 2003–04 season, with the Caps agreeing to pick up half of his onerous salary in the process (that deal continues to save the Blueshirts $3.42 million per year).

Today, many Ovechkin supporters correctly point out that he is the centerpiece of the Caps’ organization and a critical part of the team’s future if they’re to develop into Stanley Cup champions. But the same was also said of Jagr. And while there is plenty to like about Ovechkin’s game — from his ability to skate either through or around defenders to his blistering slap shot to his dazzling stick-handling skills — the things that make him special are also the things that make this contract such a painfully bad idea.

Ovechkin is an enviable combination of Mike Bossy, Cam Neely, and Pavel Bure, three of the most dynamic wingers ever to skate in the NHL. Not coincidentally, all of them saw their careers shortened by injuries. Ovechkin’s willingness to engage opponents physically — and to battle his way to the most treacherous real estate on the ice at breakneck speed — means that he is consistently putting himself in physical danger.

Ovechkin’s contract will undoubtedly also make him a target for disgruntled union members at the low end of the totem pole, whose escrow payments are necessary in no small part because of the exorbitant contracts lavished upon the likes of Ovechkin. If Flyers antagonist Steve Downie thought it wise to headhunt Dean McAmmond in a preseason game (for which he got suspended 20 games), how much fun will he have going after Ovechkin? The lack of respect shown by NHL players toward their peers in recent months has been nothing short of appalling, and Ovechkin’s contract effectively makes him a target for the league’s most unsavory characters.

Added to all of this valid concern is the potentially negative impact the contract will have on Ovechkin’s motivation level. European hockey players (and Russians in particular) have an overstated reputation for becoming surly and enigmatic, and while that’s not expected of the outgoing Ovechkin, the only way he will be worth this money is if he remains a model citizen for the duration of the agreement. Realistically, there’s no reason to expect Ovechkin — or any athlete, for that matter — to remain fully motivated after having an entire career’s riches lavished upon him at the not-yet-ripe young age of 22.

With this deal, the Caps committed $124 million to Ovechkin over 13 years, while the maximum amount he could have possibly earned over that time under the Collective Bargaining Agreement was just under $131 million. In other words, there wasn’t much further Mrs. Ovechkin could push Leonsis in those negotiations. Though Ovechkin has repeatedly stated that personal goals are a distant second priority behind helping the team to win, his contract will effectively make it nearly impossible for Leonsis to surround him with a Cup-caliber roster.

Getting the most out of Ovechkin will also require that the Caps commit a fair amount of money to a center and right wing for his line, thus ensuring that the team will probably be paying somewhere between $15 and $20 million per year for its top line over the course of the contract. Already, the Caps have committed $34 million for their payroll in 2008–09, but they have no starting goaltender, and a possibly contentious negotiation to come with emerging offensive defenseman Mike Green.

The Caps’ division rivals, the Tampa Bay Lightning, have been absolutely shackled this way as well, by the lengthy, lucrative contracts tendered to forwards Vincent Lecavalier, Brad Richards, and Martin St. Louis. Now, the Caps have effectively ensured that they’ll suffer a similar plight. Spending egregious amounts of money on forwards, no matter how talented they might be, is a terrible idea, especially for teams that cannot afford to spend to the fast-rising salary cap.

Indeed, defense and goaltending are the keys to success in the modern NHL. As things stand right now, the Caps will be constantly behind the eight ball, desperately searching for bargain-priced puzzle pieces to help them cobble together a Cup contender. Without top-flight goaltending and a far more capable defense corps, they will be nothing more than alsorans for the foreseeable future.

Mr. Greenstein is the editor in chief of InsideHockey.com.