In the Internet Age, Everybody’s a Scout

This article is from the archive of The New York Sun before the launch of its new website in 2022. The Sun has neither altered nor updated such articles but will seek to correct any errors, mis-categorizations or other problems introduced during transfer.

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One of the best effects technology has had on baseball has been a simple one we almost never think about: It allows us to see more ballplayers. Not long ago, a hardcore fan from New York might see the star player of a West Coast team in a league he didn’t follow a few times a year, at most. It’s quite common for someone who grew up idolizing Willie McCovey, for instance, to have seen little more of Boston’s Carl Yastrzemski than me. That’s just not so now. Between national highlights shows and several nationally televised games a week, even casual fans will be familiar with the best players from all around the league.

For those inclined to look, you can even see Japanese baseball players. Just a few years ago, game footage of star players like Ichiro Suzuki, Hideki Matsui, and Kazuo Matsui was quite hard to come by, and most opinions on those players filtered down from an elite of scouts, players, and executives who had personally watched these players in Japan. That’s no longer true, and it’s an immense boon for those who like to form their own opinions.

This winter, for instance, perhaps the most sought-after free agent will be Seibu Lions pitcher Daisuke Matsuzaka, who was formally posted yesterday. That means the Lions have opened a sealed auction, in which all Major League Baseball teams are free to participate, with the prize being the rights to negotiate with Matsuzaka’s agent, the renowned Scott Boras. The consensus is that those rights will likely cost at least $20 million, and that on top of that fee the pitcher will command an annual salary of $12 million to $15 million — all of which seems an awful lot of money to pay for a complete unknown.

Of course, Matsuzaka is hardly unknown to major league clubs, which have been following him for years; and if you’re inclined, he needn’t be an unknown to you, either. Go to matsuzaka. blogspot.com, for instance, and you’ll have access to nearly as much information on the 26-year-old ace as many MLB decision-makers — from statistical translations to links to a full range of game footage. Rather than just taking someone’s word about Matsuzaka, you can arrive at your own conclusion, and thus find the world of high-stakes baseball negotiations that much less mystifying.

Watching a bit of footage on YouTube doesn’t make someone a scout, but it’s a fun exercise to watch Matsuzaka pitch while keeping in mind the basic sorts of thing scouts look for. The most basic thing is body type: how big is the pitcher? How is he proportioned? The next is his delivery. What angle or angles does the ball come from? Is there a lot of wasted motion? Is there stress on the shoulder or elbow? Does the pitcher repeat his motion well? (Something to look for is whether the pitcher’s back foot lands in the same part of the mound with every pitch.) Does he deliver fastballs and breaking balls differently?

After this, look at the quality of the pitches: How hard they’re thrown, how they break, whether he can put them in different parts of the strike zone to both left- and right-handed hitters. Scouting is a refined art, but any attentive fan can watch someone pitch with basic questions like these in mind and learn something. As I’ve written before, Matsuzaka reminds me a great deal of a young David Cone, from his delivery to the range of pitches he commands to their movement; but I’d highly encourage you to watch him yourself.

Similarly, looking over Matsuzaka’s numbers (they’re very impressive — he has a 2.51 ERA over the last four years) and reading a bit about how they equate to MLB numbers won’t make one an expert, but it’s a fruitful exercise. Understanding why Japanese baseball is considered above AAA but below the majors makes it easier to understand why teams might be willing to chance as much as $75 million on someone who’s never thrown a major league game. To oversimplify, their worst players are quite awful, and their average players are fringe major leaguers, but their good and great players are of star MLB caliber, and those players whose games least revolve around hitting or preventing home runs are those likeliest to see their success carry over to America. Even tacking a run onto Matsuzaka’s ERA — more than is probably warranted — he’s a 3.50 ERA pitcher. Imagine a pitcher who looks as impressive as Matsuzaka does on the mound who for some reason had been left in AAA for four years during which he posted a 2.51 ERA — would teams be willing to spend $75 million on him? Probably.

Beyond the numbers and game film, there’s a lot to know about this mystery man who is, all of a sudden, an American sports celebrity. Not a large man, he frequently throws upwards of 135 pitches a game; but then, Japanese starters rest one more day between starts than pitchers do in America. Does all this make him more or less liable to injury? No one’s truly sure. He’s excelled in pressure situations: his national high school tournament, the Olympics, the World Baseball Classic. Does that make him a better bet to succeed on the mound in Yankee Stadium in October? It’s hard to tell, but you can be certain Boras will argue it’s so. On and on, there is factor after factor on which to dwell.

With the Seattle Mariners, who have had a great deal of success bringing over Japanese stars, having announced they won’t be bidding on Matsuzaka, there are only so many teams that will be seriously involved in the bidding — the New York and Los Angeles teams, Boston, perhaps Texas, perhaps the Chicago teams. Bidding is up Wednesday, and the winning club will have 30 days in which to negotiate—30 days during which, if the Mets or Yankees win the bid, you’ll hear an awful lot about Matsuzaka. The hearing will be a lot more fun if you take half an hour and study up on him in a way no one could have done even five years ago; it will be worth the time.

tmarchman@nysun.com


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