Is This Boston’s Year?
This article is from the archive of The New York Sun before the launch of its new website in 2022. The Sun has neither altered nor updated such articles but will seek to correct any errors, mis-categorizations or other problems introduced during transfer.

Since the introduction of the expanded playoff format in 1995, two sorts of teams have made the playoffs. There are some, like most Yankee teams, that are overwhelmingly favored to make the World Series; and filler teams, like the 1998 Cubs, whom everyone acknowledges have no chance to make it out of the first round.
The increasing parity seen since the 2002 labor agreement has shown up in October this year. Despite the presence of a 105-win team and another with a $200 million payroll, there are no generally accepted favorites in the field of eight; a plausible argument could be made for any team save the Dodgers as being the most likely to win it all.
This is partly because of injuries: Were key pitchers Chris Carpenter and Matt Morris healthier, St. Louis would be a near-lock for the pennant and a heavy favorite in the Series. But as things stand, this looks like the most unpredictable, and potentially the most exciting, October in many years.
But the fact that no team is generally considered a heavy favorite does not mean that all these teams are equal. I think the Red Sox are, by far, the best team in baseball, and the most likely to win the World Series.
Consider a few facts: the Red Sox outscored their opponents by 180 runs this season – twice as many as the Yankees (89), and nearly as many as the Cardinals (197). The margin between their team OPS and that of their opponents was 108 points – higher than the Cardinals, nearly double that of the Braves and Yankees, and nearly triple that of any other playoff team.
Then consider that the Red Sox team playing this week is even better than the one that amassed these gaudy statistics. The current Sox will have Trot Nixon, who slugged .762 in September after missing the first two thirds of the season, as well as a tight infield defense anchored by Doug Mientkewicz and Orlando Cabrera. Boston will also not have Derek Lowe starting any games, but will instead run out three starting pitchers – Curt Schilling, Pedro Martinez, and Bronson Arroyo – with ERAs better than that posted by Jon Lieber, the Yankees’ best qualifier for the ERA title.
It’s not clear that any National League team aside from Houston has a starter that would pitch in the first three games of a Red Sox series. As good as the Twins’ 1-2 combo of Johan Santana and Brad Radke is, Boston is the one AL team that can face them absolutely confident that their starters can beat them even at their best.
Compare the Red Sox’s position by position to the Yankees’ and their strength is clear. New York’s superiority at right field, shortstop, and third base is more than made up for by Boston’s huge advantages at center field, designated hitter, and second base.
Compare the Sox to the Cardinals and their strength is even more clear. Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz, as good as they are, are no match for Jim Edmonds, Scott Rolen, Albert Pujols, and Larry Walker. But while the Cardinals have adequate players to support their core hitters, the Red Sox have very good ones, near-stars like Jason Varitek and Johnny Damon. There are no easy innings for a pitcher facing the Red Sox, no point at which he faces Tony Clark, Ruben Sierra, and Enrique Wilson, or Reggie Sanders, Mike Matheny, and Tony Womack.
The Red Sox are a long way from perfect. Their bullpen, in particular, is a cause for concern: Alan Embree, Mike Timlin, and some combination of Scott Williamson, Derek Lowe, and multiple inning outings from closer Keith Foulke are no one’s idea of bulletproof.
That has consequences beyond the possibility of blown late-inning leads. With good defensive substitutes like Pokey Reese and Dave Roberts available, manager Terry Francona will probably end up taking some of his better hitters out late in games to ensure that the bullpen doesn’t have to get more than three outs an inning. Having Reese at bat instead of Mark Bellhorn could cost the Sox late in a tight game.
Still, this team is as good as any playoff team at both scoring runs and preventing them. The Sox also possess every small advantage one might like to see in a postseason favorite, from proven money pitchers like Schilling and Martinez to the tactical flexibility provided by a good bench stocked with hitters and fielders.
World championship trophies aren’t won or lost at the whim of the ghostly hand of dead ballplayers, but by teams on the field. Until they’re eliminated, the Red Sox have every right to expect to be hoisting one as the last team left standing.