K-Rod May Be Baseball’s First 60-Save Man
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Francisco Rodriguez helped his Los Angeles Angels polish off a sweep of Boston with his 40th save on Sunday, which is pretty impressive even if you’re not the sort to be impressed by any achievement involving the worst statistic in baseball. Having reached the mark in his team’s 98th game, Rodriguez not only set a record of sorts, but destroyed the competition — until now, the record was owned by John Smoltz, who in 2002 saved his 40th in Atlanta’s 116th game of the year. More notably, Rodriguez is a full 20 games ahead of the pace the Chicago White Sox’ Bobby Thigpen set in 1990, when he saved a record 57 games. Could K-Rod be the first man to save 60?
To drain all the suspense out of things, the answer is that he certainly could, and that there may be a better than even shot that he will. Since he isn’t even the second-best reliever in his own league this year — Mariano Rivera and Minnesota’s Joe Nathan have both been better — this says as much about the save as a concept as anything else, but Rodriguez is a special pitcher, on the verge of doing special things.
The main reason to think Rodriguez will actually set a new record is his pace. At his current rate, he’ll end up with 66 saves. That’s partly a result of his excellence, as he’s converted 93% of his save chances, but it’s also partly a result of his environment. Half of the Angels’ games so far this year have offered a save opportunity, much higher than the typical team’s rate, because they play a lot of close games, having only outscored their opponents 429-396. (This is, incidentally, eerily close to the 420-381 margin the White Sox enjoyed through 98 games in Thigpen’s record season.)
While this likely won’t continue, the point is that it doesn’t have to. If the Angels present Rodriguez with save chances in a perfectly normal 37.5% of their remaining games, and he converts 80% of them, he’ll end up with 59 saves. Those are conservative assumptions: The Angels have a shabby offense (they’re 21st in runs per game) but an excellent pitching staff and defense (they’re fourth in runs allowed per game), and so will presumably continue to play a lot of tight games, and Rodriguez is a genuinely excellent reliever. Even if circumstances suddenly turn dire, though, Rodriguez will still have a great chance at the mark. If the Angels were to present him with a save opportunity in an unrealistically low 28% of their remaining games, for instance, but he converted all of them, he would break Thigpen’s record. Basically, so long as K-Rod stays healthy, he should set a new record sometime this September.
The most interesting implication of all this is for Rodriguez’s pending free agency. This fall, he’ll hit the market at 26, with the fourth-highest strikeout rate in history for any pitcher with at least 400 innings pitched, a dominating postseason record (39 strikeouts in 29.1 innings), and very likely the single season saves record. His agent will be in a good position to argue that he’s worth more than relievers such as Nathan, Philadelphia’s Brad Lidge, and Cincinnati’s Francisco Cordero, who have established the going rate for a top closer as between $12 million and $13 million a year. With some luck — and contenders such as Milwaukee, St. Louis, and the Cubs, in addition to the Angels, will have both bullpen needs and a demonstrated willingness to pay for relief pitching — they might even be able to top Rivera’s $15 million annual salary.
Whichever team ends up with Rodriguez, though, will get a pitcher showing signs of real decline. According to Baseball Info Solutions data available at FanGraphs.com, Rodriguez’s average fastball this year has come in at just 92 mph. This isn’t especially fast for a reliever, and it’s the second straight year he’s showed a significant loss of velocity. This bears out in his results — as good as he’s been this year, his strikeout rate of 9.21 per nine innings is down 25% from his established level, and his K/BB ratio of 1.67 is not only unimpressive, but half what it was two years ago.
Obviously none of this is keeping Rodriguez from spectacular success right now, but the combination of declining velocity, a declining strikeout rate, and an increased walk rate should set off alarms, ticking noises, neon lights, and signal flares for any executive dreaming of staking tens of millions of dollars on Rodriguez. So should the precedent of Thigpen, who at 26 set the record for saves in a season, pitched 116.7 innings with a 5.55 ERA during the next three years, and was never heard from again.
tmarchman@nysun.com