Lundqvist’s Payday Could Be on Its Way in 2008

This article is from the archive of The New York Sun before the launch of its new website in 2022. The Sun has neither altered nor updated such articles but will seek to correct any errors, mis-categorizations or other problems introduced during transfer.

The New York Sun

Of the surprising developments in the post-lockout NHL, perhaps the most shocking of all has been the rash of long-term contracts doted upon relatively unproven players, inflating the market for these relative neophytes to ludicrous levels. With star netminder Henrik Lundqvist due to become a restricted free agent on July 1, the Rangers will soon be pressed to make a long-term commitment to their most important player — or risk losing him after just three seasons of service.

Beginning on January 1, the Blueshirts will enter a six-month window during which they’ll have exclusive rights to negotiate a contract extension with Lundqvist. If the events of recent months are any indication, the Swedish sensation is due for an astronomical payday.

Back in the summer of 2006, when the Islanders signed goaltender Rick DiPietro to a 15-year, $67.5 million contract, The New York Sun was one of the few press outlets to consider the move a shrewd one on the Isles’ part. But the reasoning behind that was somewhat unique to DiPietro. As one of the top young goalies in the game, he is without question the key to the Isles’ success in the coming years, and can be a difference-maker in ways that skaters (and in particular, forwards) cannot.

Over the course of the average NHL game, a top forward will play approximately 22 minutes, or about one-third of the time the starting goaltender is on the ice. Assuming the starting netminder plays in 65 games, averaging 60 minutes per game, he will play nearly 4,000 minutes over the course of an entire NHL season. In sharp contrast, even if the forward suits up for all 82 games, he will only skate for about 1,800 minutes (and for a 30-minute defenseman, about 2,500 minutes). Flying in the face of this irrefutable logic, the Edmonton Oilers tendered highball offer sheets to two restricted free agent forwards last summer, sending shock waves throughout the hockey world. The first offer sheet, to the Buffalo Sabres’ Thomas Vanek, was matched, leaving the Sabres on the hook for the seven-year, $50 million deal. The second offer, to the Ducks’ Dustin Penner, wisely wasn’t matched, and so the Oilers were given carte blanche to grossly overpay the burly forward (five years, $21.25 million).

Penner’s performance thus far for the Oilers has been quite underwhelming, and it’s probable that he isn’t ever going to be the difference-maker that Edmonton so desperately needed. When the general manager of the Ducks, Brian Burke, publicly protested the aggressive move by Oilers’ GM Kevin Lowe, it was probably due to its inflationary impact. By signing Penner to that deal, Lowe was unquestionably increasing the cost to Burke of re-signing forward Corey Perry, due to become a restricted free agent this coming July.

Then last week, the Philadelphia Flyers — already the center of controversy for much of this season — raised the inflation stakes to unconscionably high levels, finalizing a ludicrous 12-year, $69 million deal with forward Mike Richards. Richards is a solid, gritty forward, with the scoring skill to be a decent second-line center for the Flyers for many seasons to come. But by paying him solely on his potential — rather than what he has proven he’s capable of — the Flyers are taking a huge risk. Last season, Richards tallied 32 points in 59 games to go along with an atrocious minus-12 rating, hardly results consistent with future superstardom. Though it’s true that he’s gotten off to a red-hot start this year (38 points in 31 games), that sample size is far too small to legitimately begin considering him the second coming of Flyers legend Bobby Clarke.

If Richards was worth $69 million to the Flyers, there’s virtually no limit to what Lundqvist could legitimately command, especially given the logic ascribed to the DiPietro deal. A Vezina Trophy finalist in each of his first two seasons — and certainly one of the NHL’s top netminders this year — Lundqvist is exponentially more important to the Rangers than Richards is to the Flyers. There are no fewer than 20 NHL teams that would be far superior with Lundqvist between the pipes, which means there will most definitely be a strong market for his services should he reach restricted free agency.

Moreover, the Rangers have precious little leverage in these negotiations, as they already exercised their one-time-only arbitration rights with Lundqvist last summer. Instead, they will be hoping for mercy, hoping that the unnecessarily generous $4.25 million deal Lundqvist was given last summer will encourage him to take less to remain on Broadway. It is, of course, also important to note that this concern is not because the Rangers cannot afford to pay him the maximum allowable under the cap — but because doing so would likely prevent them from surrounding him with a Cup-caliber lineup.

There is precedent to indicate that star players are willing to sacrifice for the good of their teams. Sidney Crosby, whose Penguins are visiting the Rangers at Madison Square Garden tonight, accepted a five-year, $43.5 million deal last summer that left nearly $10 million on the table over the course of its five seasons. DiPietro’s contract pays him $4.5 million per year, a thoroughly reasonable hit against the salary cap. It gives the Islanders plenty of room to build a solid team around him, while still providing DiPietro with tremendous long-term security, a clear win-win proposition for both sides.

And then, of course, there’s the Devils’ Zach Parise, who was signed to a bargain basement, four-year, $12.5 million deal last summer. Parise, a 2003 first-round pick, has been everything the Devils hoped for on the ice, where he’s emerged as the team’s most consistently dangerous scoring threat. By accepting that reasonable contract, even after seeing Vanek and Penner get their exorbitant paydays, Parise exhibited a team-first attitude not often seen in today’s self-centric sports world.

Can the Rangers expect Lundqvist to be similarly magnanimous? It all depends upon whether “The King” is willing to put the team’s success ahead of his own personal wealth. It won’t be long after the ball drops on 2008 that we’ll find out, one way or the other, where Lundqvist’s priorities lie.

Mr. Greenstein is the editor in chief of InsideHockey.com.


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