You can’t blame Mets fans for being excited. A team that has been belligerently dull for years is suddenly transformed. Visions of the swaggering Pedro Martinez atop the mound and the vibrant Carlos Beltran chasing down balls in the gaps have already replaced memories of the insipid Mike Stanton leaving the hill after surrendering a gopher ball.

Include a real first baseman of any sort and even the trauma-inducing image of Mike Piazza flailing to catch off balance throws from an out-of-position Kaz Matsui may be written off as nothing more than a bad dream. Contention seems near at hand.

As the generals like to tell the politicians, though, the enemy gets a vote as well. In the National League East that’s the Braves and Phillies, who have also been busy this winter. It would be hard to argue that the Mets haven’t caught up to the Marlins, but the division nonetheless looks the same as it always does right now. The Phillies are the best team on paper the Braves are sure to make fools of doomsayers, and everyone else needs things to break their way. It should be a good race.

The move that will have the most impact on the division this season was the long-overdue firing of Philadelphia manager Larry Bowa and his replacement by Charlie Manuel. Does Manuel bring any special qualities that will affect the race? Not really, but he is a self-professed player’s manager and more importantly, he’s not Bowa.

The former manager had not only lost his players, but seemed to actually be inhibiting the development of several. His belief that his way was the only way and his harsh denunciations of his players have been pointed to by virtually all close observers as the cause of the Phillies’ underperformance over the last few years, and just by offering a new start, Manuel should improve the team.

As has been the case for several years now, Philadelphia has talent to rival that of the Yankees and Red Sox Jim Thome and Bobby Abreu are a one two punch as good as or better than Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz. Short stop Jimmy Rollins was quietly one of the 15 or so best players in the league last year; Mike Lieberthal remains one of the game’s best-hitting catchers; and the absurdly underrated Placido Polanco has been brought back to provide Gold Glove-caliber infield defense and his usual .800 OPS.

The pitching staff isn’t as good, but it’s still solid with the potential to be a lot more. The team will likely get no less from Jon Lieber and Cory Lidle than it got from Kevin Millwood and Eric Milton last year. And with an embarrassment of young pitchers like Gavin Floyd, Cole Hamels, and Brett Myers kicking around, the team can deal with continued inconsistency from Vincente Padilla and Randy Wolf.

The Billy Wagner-fronted bullpen could well be the best in the league. All Manuel needs to do is get his charges to play to their abilities and the Phillies will win 90 games easily.

If Manuel can do more, this team could even shoot for 100 victories. The keys are two young players who withered under the tyrannical Bowa: left fielder Pat Burrell, who quietly had a return to respectability last season, and centerfielder Marlon Byrd, who two years ago looked like he was ready to step into the big leagues as an All-Star. Figuring out the way to unlock their talent, perhaps by encouraging approaches that Bowa discouraged, could be the difference that finally puts the Phillies over the top.

Of course, this is what everyone has been saying for three years now.

Unlike the Phillies, the Braves made their big moves on the field. Replenishing the rotation with Tim Hudson and John Smoltz in place of the departed Russ Ortiz and Jaret Wright was, to say the least, inspired. Letting right fielder J.D. Drew go without anything like a ready substitute was not.

If ever an executive has earned the benefit of the doubt, though, it’s John Schuerholz. Rumors have him chasing the likes of Mark Teixeira and Austin Kearns, cheap young players with the potential to anchor the team’s offense for half a decade. Should he succeed, the loss of Drew will be quickly forgotten.

Even if he can’t land a big fish, Schuerholz can look forward not only to a healthy Marcus Giles, but to Andy Marte, a third baseman who slugged .562 as a 20-year-old in AA last year and has drawn comparisons to Albert Pujols. The Braves have never been afraid to insert young players in key roles, and if we’re looking at another 10-game Braves lead in July, Marte might be a big part of the reason why.

Despite what the Mets have done, the Phillies and the Braves are better right now, and there’s a good case to make for the Marlins as well. Their lineup is weaker on paper than the Mets’ but a lot healthier, and breakthrough seasons by young starters A.J. Burnett and Josh Beckett could give them an unstoppable rotation. It’s not unthinkable that Al Leiter could end up pitching against the Mets with a playoff spot in the balance.

Whatever the other team’s strengths, the Mets’ place in the standings will depend on how they solve their own glaring problems. With no bullpen, no first baseman, and an unsettled situation in right field, the Mets still need work. What they do have going for them is significant – new stars who will contend for the Cy Young and MVP awards; David Wright, a franchise player in the making; a rotation as solid from 1-to-5 as any in the league; and a new manager.

In his own way, Art Howe was just as bad for the Mets as Larry Bowa was for the Phillies. His hands-off approach wasn’t what was needed with a team full of veterans stuck in bad habits and young players who’d never learned good ones.

With many of the veterans gone, Randolph will need to get the most out of the kids. A solid, fundamental approach will pay real dividends with players like Jason Phillips and Victor Diaz, who never fail to swing for the fences when a single is needed, and Jose Reyes, who simply never fails to swing.

While there’s no telling how Willie Randolph will do in his first year in charge, it’s my bet that if the Mets are still in contention come July, we’ll be pointing to him and to noticeably crisper play as the primary reasons why.