Mets Crisis of the Week: They Can’t Hit Lefties

One of the more entertaining things about a highly entertaining Mets season has been the constant manufacture of crises. Be it the rotation, the bullpen, the outfield, David Wright’s power stroke, or the gravitational pull of Mr. Met’s enormous head, one thing or another been casting terror in the hearts of the team’s supporters no matter how well they’re playing. As they continue thrashing the league even with every reason to simply play out the string, the newest crisis is the team’s supposed vulnerability to left-handed pitching, an ongoing problem over the last six weeks that was rather brutally highlighted when someone named Eric Stults pitched like Sandy Koufax against the Mets in his first major league start.The problem, if there is one, is in the tendency all people have to put too much emphasis on what’s happening now in trying to predict what’s likely to happen in the future. That’s entirely understandable — a Mets lineup in which various players with weaknesses against lefties are shuffling in and out of the lineup, in which another couple of key players are enduring slumps, and whose cleanup hitter doesn’t hit lefties nearly as well as he hits righties is going to look like an October problem waiting to happen, especially when a Stults-type pitcher vaunts on the mound as he mows down Queens’ finest. Still, a bit of perspective is in order.Leaving aside the mystery outfielder du jour, Mets regulars break down into two camps: Those who have been scalding lefties, and those who have been losing a lot against them. In the first camp you have Wright, Carlos Beltran, Jose Reyes, Paul LoDuca and Shawn Green. The first three have seasonal on base plus slugging percentages around .900 against portsiders; LoDuca and Green are around .800, which is right where they are overall. In the second camp you have Carlos Delgado and Jose Valentin. Delgado’s been limited to a .770 OPS against lefties (not surprising, as he hits from the left and usually faces the opposition’s best left-handed reliever late in games). Valentin’s been better than he usually is, with a .629 mark, but there’s a reason Chris Woodward has a job.Why should these season-long numbers matter more than more recent ones, heading into the playoffs? For the simple reason that the more information you’re looking at, the better the conclusions you’re likely to draw. For an absurd example of extrapolating from a small sample, you can say that since LoDuca had zero hits against Stults, he can’t hit lefties. That’s obviously ridiculous, but it’s not much more ridiculous than looking at how the Mets have done over the last six weeks and going into a panic over it.Similarly, looking at just this season’s numbers, rather than how these players have performed over the last few years, is a mistake. Performance fluctuates, but since 2003 Beltran, Reyes, and Wright have all hit slightly better against left-handed hitters than against righties; LoDuca’s hit much better against them; Delgado’s hit much worse against them, but still more than well enough to play every day; Green’s been ineffective enough against them that he should probably have been platooned, and Valentin has been truly awful, bad enough that he should never face a left-handed pitcher if it can be avoided.As they say, past performance is not a guarantor of future performance, but it’s fair to say that no matter their recent struggles, the Mets are no more vulnerable to lefties than the next team. Their three best and most important hitters historically smite them, and another hitter is, though not great against them, great relative to his own general abilities. This leaves two bottom-of-the-order hitters who should be pinch-hit for in a tight spot with a lefty on the hill, and one middle-of-the-order threat who hasn’t looked good against left-handers this year but has historically been perfectly fine against them, though not Ruthian as he has been against right-handers.Past that, where are these hordes of lefty starters on playoff teams of whom Mets fans should be terrified? Is the specter of San Diego’s David Wells supposed to horrify the Mets supporter? A World Series matchup against Minnesota’s Johan Santana and Francisco Liriano would be tough — but it’s not clear how being better against the generic left-hander would help against arguably the two best pitchers in the American League.There’s a difference between noting a phenomenon and drawing a conclusion from it. Short of some specific, known cause — like David Wright having gone blind in one eye, or Carlos Beltran having a phobia about gripping his bat in the way he has to to succeed as a right-handed hitter—there’s no reason to think any Met other than Valentin should fear the lefthander in the playoffs. If Willie Randolph doesn’t take note of the deficiencies of his players and use his bench adeptly, it may be a problem — but he’s shown little reason to think it will be so, and so again, it’s a manufactured crisis.tmarchman@nysun.com

Mets Crisis of the Week: They Can’t Hit Lefties

More from the New York Sun

‘Ask E. Jean’ Is a Hagiographic Look at the Gonzo Writer Who Has Twice Bested Trump in Court

Apple Is Hoping AI Will Solve Its Siri Problem

Switzerland Votes on Whether To Cap Its Population at 10 Million

Designer Fashion Gets Increasingly Expensive as it Delivers Diminishing Returns

With Lawsuits Cleared and Tempers Flaring, UFC Readies for Trump’s Birthday Bashing at the White House

Critics Look to States To Block Paramount-Warner Bros. Deal After Justice Department’s Approval

White Students Are Now a Minority in American Schools, New Analysis Finds

Trump’s Name Removed From Kennedy Center After Federal Judge Rules Rebranding Unlawful