Yadier Molina yanks an Aaron Heilman pitch into the stands, Carlos Beltran stares at a called third strike with the winning runs on base, and the Mets’ 97-win season ends with an agonizing sense of missed opportunity. Do you call that failure, or do you call it success? We’ll probably only be able to say after a few years have passed. With Jose Reyes and David Wright established as stars, an extraordinary group of young outfielders working their way toward Shea, and a more talented group of young starting pitchers than the team gets credit for, the Mets have the chance to be the dominant team in the National League for the rest of the decade and beyond. If they fulfill that potential, 2006 will be seen one way; if they blow it, as they’ve blown similar chances in the past, it will be seen another way. This year will be telling.

The pessimist has cause to fret. The Mets are old. The right half of the infield, the outfield corners, catcher, and the top two slots in the rotation are all manned by what are, in baseball years, senior citizens. There isn’t a single starter other than 40-year-old Tom Glavine who’s a solid bet to be both healthy and good. The Mets may, by overcommitting to veteran players, actually be squandering a great chance at again being the best team in the league. There’s a bit of truth to that, but the Mets’ prospects are a lot brighter than this analysis would lead one to think. For a team supposedly so smitten with veterans, the Mets are relying on an awful lot of young talent. Rather than bringing in journeyman starters, they’ve filled the rotation with young pitchers with high upsides and the potential to be mainstays for years. The outfield corners may be manned by old men, but Lastings Milledge will clearly be given enough playing time to establish himself as another core player. And with one exception, second baseman Jose Valentin (who was, to be fair, excellent last year), the elderly ballplayers can all be expected to play at championship level this year. We’ve seen truly indiscriminate infatuation with veterans and inept prospects in Flushing, and this is not it. Moises Alou is not Jeromy Burnitz, and Mike Pelfrey is not Grant Roberts. These are not the 2003 Mets.

MANAGER

A year ago at this time, three-quarters of Mets fans were unaccountably convinced that Willie Randolph was a dolt. For all I know, some still are, but it’s a hard case to make. His most important job has been to groom the pair of potential franchise players he inherited; Reyes and Wright have developed even better than could have been hoped. He’s proved equally adept at handling famous veterans; certainly things like Carlos Beltran coming back from a disastrous Mets debut to nearly win the MVP can’t be held against the skipper. Fundamentally limited role players like Valentin, Orlando Hernandez, and Endy Chavez have thrived under Randolph’s care, as he’s showed a real understanding of how to get the most out of whatever it is a player does well while keeping him out of situations that might defeat him. And a remarkable number of dogs have not barked on his watch. Remember Paul Lo Duca’s extramarital shenanigans, Lastings Milledge’s youthful exuberance, and Billy Wagner’s occasional late-inning difficulties becoming massive distractions for the team? Neither do I.

Far from being a dolt, Randolph is showing signs of developing into a truly excellent manager. Like the best of them, he sets clear, realistic expectations for his players and helps them fulfill those expectations. You don’t hear him running his players down for the many things they can’t do, but rather praising them for what they can do, and that carries over to how he uses them in games and what he asks them to do. The Mets play with patience and controlled aggression, and their mistakes tend to come from taking smart risks. That’s not all Randolph’s doing — it’s the guys on the field who play the game — but he does his part to ensure the Shea faithful see a team with a winning style of play. It’s not the sort of thing that can make up for a lack of talent, but it can make sure that given talent, a team doesn’t waste it. The Mets are in good hands.

PITCHING

You can give the Mets credit for gambling on young pitchers with real upside rather than casting their lot with quantities already proven to be mediocre and still concede that the staff is at least potentially a disaster. Orlando Hernandez will doubtless be fine when he pitches; the real question is how often he’ll be able to take the ball. Anyone old enough to develop an arthritic neck must be regarded with skepticism. On the other end of the age continuum is Oliver Perez. There’s no way to know how good he’ll be this year; he’s been good enough to contend for a Cy Young award and he’s been about the worst pitcher in the league. The Mets would take the happy medium, but that’s the one thing he hasn’t done. He looked good after coming over from the Pirates last year, and the working theory is that he wasn’t the sort of player who handles being poorly coached in a losing environment well. It makes sense; given his complex mechanics, he’s the sort of pitcher to whom coaching probably makes the most difference, and playing for the best team in the league is the sort of thing that will motivate a young player to actually listen to the coach. I expect he’ll start to harness his stuff and prove quite effective.

For the last two years, the Mets have had great success with all sorts of nobodies and never-weres in the bullpen, and that should continue this year. Relief pitching is an area where a club with a good system can do well, regardless of the talent on hand. With good scouting, a willingness to trust the scouts, and good coaching, all of which the Mets have, random guys with good fastballs can be turned into contributors, and that’s what the Mets have been able to do.

BENCH

Willing as one is to trust a growing track record indicating that the Minaya/Randolph regime has a knack for picking the right bench guys, this crew seems thin. Julio Franco may be an invaluable asset in many ways, but he turns 49 this year; he really shouldn’t be the top pinch hitter. Milledge and Chavez are fine reserve outfielders, but neither has the power you’d hope at least one of your bench guys would have, and reserve catcher Ramon Castro and utilityman Anderson Hernandez are basically ciphers. Excepting Milledge, there isn’t one man on the bench who would be a good fit as an emergency starter for so much as a week in a tight pennant race, and that’s dangerous with an older team. With a thin minor league system, this is one area Minaya will need to improve this year, especially given the importance of a strong bench in October.

tmarchman@nysun.com

Jose Reyes
[2007 PROJECTION: .290/.335/.445 63 SB*]

As someone who’s long maintained an irrational certainty that Jose Reyes will fulfill every bit of his promise, I am likely biased, but I think the shortstop will improve on last year’s remarkable campaign. The question of what kind of player Reyes will become revolves, as it always has, around the question of what kind of baseball intelligence you think he’ll develop. I’ve always thought that he’d grow into a completely three-dimensional player like Barry Larkin or Roberto Alomar Jr., whom he’s resembled statistically and in more intangible ways even at his worst. The competing view is and has been that like the equally similar Cristian Guzman or Alfredo Griffin, he’ll skate on his talent and never master the game’s intricacies. Does anyone who watched Reyes play really think he has more in common with Guzman than with Larkin? Watch him watching the field the next time you watch a Mets game on TV. Reyes sees everything, and acts on it.

David Wright
[2007 PROJECTION: .302/.386/.541 121 R]

Rarely have Mets fans been more concerned with less cause than they are over the fact that David Wright hit eight home runs in the second half of the season, fewer than half the number he’d hit in the first half. Together with the fact that Wright’s 2006 statistics were completely identical to his 2005 numbers, people are worried. Is his growth stalling? Will he fall apart? Did those weird religious TV ads he did sap his will? It’s all nonsense. When a player hits as well as Wright did in 2005 at age 22, simply not regressing the next year is a real achievement; the league after all is adjusting to him. By holding the line, Wright proved that his skill is equal to matching the adjustments others make to him. He’s an obscene talent, and I expect him to draw a lot more walks and hit for a lot more power while contending for the league’s MVP award.

Carlos Beltran
[2007 PROJECTION: .282./.377/.530 108 RBI]

Remember last April, when Carlos Beltran was booed out of the yard for going hitless in his first couple of games? He hit a big home run and then refused to take his curtain call until Julio Franco practically wrestled him onto the field. Between Beltran’s justified ire and the fans’ complete, craven inconsistency, the whole scenario was hilarious. Beltran’s probably not going to quite match his career year, but he’ll remain an incredible player. He’ll also remain an admirably, unexpectedly gritty one. He slides into second, throws himself around the outfield, and swings for whatever kind of hit the team really needs, often doing so while hurt. Reyes and Wright get the credit for the energy of this team; Beltran deserves as much credit for the sense of urgency with which it plays. If he was played in the Bronx, people would call him a warrior.

Carlos Delgado
[2007 PROJECTION: .271/.365/.517 27 HR]

Everyone likes Carlos Delgado, a charismatic guy and terrific hitter who gave the Mets the kind of deadly clout they haven’t had at first base since, well, ever. (Stay your fire, Hernandez and Olerud partisans; I mean nothing more than that Delgado swats the longball.) I thus feel a bit knavish about pointing out that he’ll be 35 in June, that 35-year-olds of his size are alarmingly prone to precipitous declines, that after even a gentle decline he would be more a solid hitter for a first baseman than an excellent one, and that his defense tends toward the Giambiesque. Scenarios in which the Mets miss the playoffs are scenarios that involve Delgado suddenly going Mo Vaughn. Most likely he’ll be a fine second banana in a lineup with three first-rate first bananas, and the Mets will play in October.

Moises Alou
[2007 PROJECTION: .287/.355/.484 15 HR]

An underreported story surrounding the Mets is their legal obligation, which dates back to the days of Joan Payson, to play injury-prone left fielders who hit well when they’re on the field. Moises Alou is so old he played with Jerry Reuss, but he’s still a vicious line drive hitter, comparable to a less patient Gary Sheffield with a funkier batting stance. He’s also a horrible defensive outfielder, with the range of a box turtle. Managed well (and there’s no reason to doubt he will be), he should be good for 400 excellent at-bats, which is all the Mets need from him. Hopefully young players like Wright and Reyes will prove wise enough to not borrow his bats. Anyone familiar with Alou’s famed traditional approach to toughening his hands enough to hit without batting gloves should live in mild fear of that happening.

Paul Lo Duca
[2007 PROJECTION: .289/.332/.396 45 RBI]

For a guy who’s made four straight All-Star teams, is at his worst a passable hitter for a catcher, and exudes moxie, grit, hustle, and everything else catchers are supposed to exude, Paul Lo Duca doesn’t inspire much confidence. And really, why should he? He’s a 35-year-old catcher who was basically an average hitter when he hit .318 last year. The total number of seasons in baseball history which catchers his age or older have hit even .300 is six, and two of those seasons were authored by Hall of Famer Gabby Hartnett. Drop Lo Duca’s average to a more plausible .280 and he’s not necessarily helping the team with the bat, and drop it much below that and he’s actively hurting it. A team can survive with a weak hitter behind the plate; one just hopes he isn’t left in the no. 2 spot in the lineup all year.

Shawn Green
[2007 PROJECTION: .273/.343/.424 47 RBI]

Meaning nothing against Shawn Green, who’s had a very fine career and would be an asset to any team as a pinch-hitter or platoon player, he really shouldn’t be starting for the Mets. He’s a poor defensive outfielder and an unexceptional hitter, and there’s no reason to think Lastings Milledge wouldn’t outperform him given his playing time. I’m not a great believer in Milledge as a ballplayer, and he certainly didn’t give the Mets brass any reason to hand him a job with his immature antics last season, but both for now and the future the Mets would be better served to pencil him into the lineup ahead of the more famous, better paid older player. Milledge will almost certainly claim the job at some point this year, but baseball is a demanding sport, and there’s no reason to play a worse, older player ahead of a younger, better one for even a game.

Jose Valentin
[2007 PROJECTION: .249/.328/.444 17 HR]

The finely moustached Jose Valentin has long been underappreciated, A truly odd player who’s combined awful on-base skills and excellent power with awkward but effective defense throughout his career, his miraculous play last year was a key factor in a the Mets’ great season. Problematically, he’s old and a genuine threat to get on base less than 30% of the time this year, the sort of thing no offense can really withstand. This is the one position staffed by an old-timer where the Mets really have no credible options should the old timer collapse, and as the farm system comprises little but stud prospects and zeroes, it might be difficult to make a minor trade to fill the hole should Valentin need to be replaced. Mets fans should be chewing their nails over the keystone, not the back of the rotation.

Tom Glavine
[2006 PROJECTION: 11-9/4.12 ERA/175 IP]

While Tom Glavine may not be the archetypal ace pitcher, there aren’t five better bets in baseball to pitch 200 high-quality innings, which isn’t faint praise. The difference between him and Barry Zito, for instance, is that Zito will probably end up pitching 10 or 20 more innings this year. That’s not nothing at all, but if you would have been happy to see Zito come to Shea to serve as the staff’s anchor if it had meant the departure of Glavine, you should be equally glad to see Glavine stay, especially since the old man has better stuff. I expect the league will catch up to his curve- 2006 Stats ball this year, so expect him to debut some newfangled pitch like a fadeaway or an upshoot on his march to win no. 300.

John Maine
[2007 PROJECTION: 8-8/4.34 ERA/145 IP]

Here’s your key player for the season. With his surprisingly lively fastball, zippy changeup, and ability to make the enemy look like a group of doddering bush leaguers one game and a threshing machine the next, Maine is an excellent replacement for Steve Trachsel, whose utility as a major leaguer came to an end last year. Maine’s numbers last year weren’t quite as good as they look, as he took full advantage of the Mets’ run-suppressing defense, but he should be perfectly competent this year, and if he can be so for 30 starts the Mets will breathe sighs of relief. The question is whether he can be more than competent; I think so. He may be a pitcher basically in the mold of Trachsel, Jeff Weaver, and Kris Benson, but at their best these were all highly credible no. 2 starters, and if he can match their best, the Mets will breathe sighs of exultation.

Mike Pelfrey
[2007 PROJECTION: 6–6/4.37 ERA/ 115 IP]

You had to be impressed with Mike Pelfrey in his brief major league run last year, for the simple reason that in his first professional season, armed with only one major league caliber pitch and still adjusting to wooden bats leave alone the pressures of a pennant race, he didn’t embarrass himself at all. He has the best fastball of any pitcher in the rotation, a hard, heavy sinker that moves and hits 95 on the radar gun, and he knows how to use it. The question is whether he can settle on two consistently useful pitches to offset it. If he can — and a quality breaking ball is something a pitcher can learn to throw — he has a reasonable shot at being the best pitcher on the staff. Hitters find it impossible to drive that heavy fastball for 2–1 21.0 25 13 1 12 13 5.48 1.73 power, and when you take the home run out of the equation, major leaguers are a lot less intimidating, wooden bats and all.

Billy Wagner
[2007 PROJECTION: 36 SV/2.41 ERA/60 IP]

Since Billy Wagner gave up seven hits and five runs in three NLCS games last October, on top of a high-profile flameout against the Yankees, it was hard to fault Willie Randolph when he stayed with Aaron Heilman in Game 7 against the Cardinals, even after Heilman gave up the decisive home run. Does that augur poorly for this season? No. Over the course of a season, relief pitching is mainly about stuff, not confidence. Wagner still has great stuff, and he’s coming off a generally fine season. There’s little reason to expect him to be anything other than excellent and sporadically useless, as is the case with most flame-throwing closers. Does it augur poorly for this October? I think so. Confidence may even out with stuff in the long run, but it’s a lot less clear that that’s so when the season is riding on one pitch, one at bat, or one inning. Wagner’s not Armando Benitez, but he’s not all that far from turning into a clone of his slightly larger predecessor, either.

Aaron Heilman
[2007 PROJECTION: 64 K/3.56 ERA/75 IP]

While there was a time when I rode the “Aaron Heilman should be a starter” train, I gave up my seat long ago. Heilman is pretty great as a reliever, especially given his durability; he only has two pitches, neither of which works quite as well when he has to pace himself; and the coaches who know him best didn’t want him starting when they were so desperate for pitching that Jose Lima, one of the very worst pitchers in major league history, got the call. That says it all. If the Mets, aware as they are of the value of a solid starter, aren’t willing to even give the guy a chance, that proves that they’re either unfathomably stupid or that he probably doesn’t have the stuff to start. I don’t think the Mets brain trust is unfathomably stupid. With Duaner Sanchez out until August, Heilman’s ability to pitch multiple innings at a time for days in a row will prove even more crucial than ever.

*PROJECTED STATISTICS COURTESY OF BASEBALL PROSPECTUS (WWW.BASEBALLPROSPECTUS).COM