Generally, the worst mistake people make when trying to predict what baseball teams will do is focusing on what they would like to do, and what they would ideally do, rather than what they can do. There is no doubt that Mets general manager Omar Minaya would like to fill the team’s vacancy at second base with Chase Utley, for instance; sadly, though, he is not available. Nor is there any doubt that Minaya would like to trade for a true ace such as Johan Santana; unfortunately, he doesn’t have the young talent to win a bidding war for the services of the Twins’ hurler.

Even when focusing more narrowly on what the Mets might theoretically do, there aren’t many potential moves that make any sense. Minaya could, for instance, offer Jorge Posada a five-year, $75 million contract to lure the catcher away from the Yankees, but this would be an appallingly foolish thing to do, because Posada is a 36-year-old catcher. The team could make Alex Rodriguez an offer so good he couldn’t turn it down, but as previously discussed in this space, this would likely cause problems as bad as those it would solve.

Like every other team, the Mets are prisoners of circumstances. Their hideous late season collapse would seem to require fundamental change, but there’s no way to make it happen. Barring a stroke of genius on Minaya’s part, or an act of deep stupidity on the part of one of his peers, the Mets are probably not going to be able to acquire a catcher, second baseman, or starter representing a meaningful improvement over Paul Lo Duca, Luis Castillo, or Tom Glavine. These three inadequate players are, if anything, probably the best available options at their positions, especially once financial realities are taken into account. You’d rather have Posada than Lo Duca, all else being equal, but as all else will not be equal, you’d rather have Lo Duca for one year than Posada for five. Castillo and Glavine are, somewhat frighteningly, probably the top choices outright.

The best and most realistic targets for the Mets will be Orioles catcher Ramon Hernandez and free agent pitcher Livan Hernandez, brother of Mets pitcher Orlando. Hernandez the catcher is no star, but he’s just 31, has a reputation for working well with pitchers, and before this year’s off year, in which he hit .258 AVG/.333 OBA/.382 SLG, he consistently hit .275/.335/.460 for years, which is very good production for a catcher. He’s owed $15.5 million over the next two years, and with the Orioles in full fire sale mode under new chief operating officer Andy MacPhail, it’s a safe bet he’ll be available for fringe prospects to a team willing to take on his full salary. The Mets should move on him; at worst he’ll match the production they got from Lo Duca this year, and he’ll almost certainly be better than anyone else they could get.

Hernandez the pitcher is also no prize, but he’s pitched at least 200 innings every year since 1998, save the year he pitched 199.2 innings, and he’s basically as good as Glavine was this year, with slightly more potential to do something like post a 3.50 ERA. Notably, he’s a fly ball pitcher who spent last season with Arizona, which plays its home games in an unforgiving hitter’s park; in spacious Shea, with a strong outfield defense behind him, he should do well. He’s not a glamorous name, but he’ll give the team what it needs, and all he’ll cost is money.

With these two and either Castillo or a reasonable facsimile secured, the Mets will return a team as good as this year’s 88-win squad, which, for everything that went wrong, finished all of one game out of first. Better health from Carlos Beltran, some improvement from Jose Reyes, and either the acquisition of a solid reliever or two (David Riske comes to mind) or the use of a prospect such as Mike Pelfrey in the bullpen would likely make them the best team in the division.

Might the Mets improve more dramatically? Their system is just too thin for them to get even a true no. 2 starter even if they offered up the farm — too many other teams with the same needs and better prospects need starters — but there is one other option. Barry Bonds, all his baggage aside, is still the single best hitter in baseball. He put up a .480 OBA this year and played surprisingly passable defense, and signing him would do more to improve the team than anything else they could realistically do, while not tying them on to any ill advised long term commitments.

That’s probably not going to happen, and there’s nothing wrong with that. The Mets are a good team, run by smart people who deserve the criticism they’ve been getting for the last six weeks, but also really do know what they’re doing. There may be no obvious John Maine or Oliver Perez at large, waiting to be stolen in a seemingly minor trade, but that doesn’t mean they won’t get one. The Mets likely won’t have a glamorous winter; that doesn’t mean they won’t have a good one.

tmarchman@nysun.com