Mets’ Standing Pat Bodes Well for 2006
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When a writer is as negative toward the idea of the Mets trading prospects for veterans the quality of Manny Ramirez and Alfonso Soriano as I have been, the reasonable question is, “Well, what would do you suggest, then? It’s not as if you have the chance to get this sort of player every day.”
The short answer is that I would do exactly what the Mets have done and are doing: Try to make the playoffs without compromising the larger goal of building a team that could be consistently dominant as soon as next year. Overpaying for Soriano or Ramirez would have conflicted with this second goal, which is why I opposed both moves.
That doesn’t mean that trying to win now isn’t important. With a weak schedule coming up, the Mets have an excellent shot at getting hot and grabbing the wild-card lead; for this reason, the Mets were wise not to dump veterans for prospects. Keeping an eye on October means putting the best possible team on the field right now, even if that means playing Doug Mientkiewicz at first and letting Victor Diaz learn how to field the position in Triple-A. Building a dominant team for the long run means that should the Mets hit a bad streak and fall out of the race, it will be time to give Diaz, Jae Seo, and other youngsters playing time, even ahead of arguably superior veterans. It’s still too soon to know which course will prove wiser, so the Mets have kept their options open.
The longer answer is that all the resources that could have gone into acquiring a star at the deadline would be better spent over the winter making sure the team is balanced in all areas. While this winter’s free-agent class is quite possibly the weakest in history, for a team with the Mets’ needs it’s actually not that bad at all. The team needs a catcher, a solid right side of the infield, and a reliever or two. All of this will be available in November, and by keeping their powder dry, the Mets have put themselves in a position to get everything they need to construct a 95-win team next year.
Contrary to popular opinion, catcher should actually be the easiest job to fill. The Mets have money to spend and prospects to trade, and so are well-positioned in a market that will see two quality backstops shopping their services and a team or two with a good young prospect blocked by a veteran.
The two good free agents are the Padres’ Ramon Hernandez and the Angels’ Bengie Molina. Hernandez, who has ties with pitching coach Rick Peterson dating back to their days in Oakland, will probably be the popular choice, but I’d prefer to see the Mets make a run at Molina. A two-time Gold Glove award winner, Molina is a consistent .280 hitter with 10-15 home run power who caught for a World Series winner; at 31, he should still be good for a few more years. Should the Mets get neither player, they’d still have good options. The Angels, should they re-sign Molina, might be willing to trade 22-year-old Jeff Mathis, who’s hitting .277 BA/.343 OBA/.482 SLG in Triple-A; in Mike Cameron, the Mets have the center fielder the Angels need.
Boston has an older prospect, Kelly Shoppach. Already 25, hitting .264/.365/.541 in Triple-A, and blocked behind Jason Varitek, Shoppach isn’t needed by the Red Sox, who were willing to deal him for marginal Colorado outfielder Larry Bigbie and a prospect before the deal was scuttled on the chance that Shoppach was needed in a Manny Ramirez trade. Any way you cut it, if the Mets fail to land a quality catcher this winter, they’ll have only themselves to blame.
Outside of their pressing need for a catcher, the Mets badly need a second baseman and a first baseman. As I wrote in this space last week, San Francisco’s Ray Durham would fill the void at second base nicely. In the minors, 22-year-old Anderson Hernandez is hitting .299/.349/.425 with 13 steals in 134 at-bats for the Mets’ Triple-A team. Listed at 5-foot-9 and 150 pounds, Hernandez isn’t generally regarded as a great prospect, but he’s earned a shot at the majors.
First base might be the most vexing problem of all. The free-agent market is totally dead at the position – Chicago’s Paul Konerko is just the sort of aging right-handed pseudoslugger the Mets need to avoid – and so the Mets will need to be creative. Victor Diaz is an option, but there are others.
The most attractive would be Washington’s Nick Johnson, who’s arbitration-eligible and in the hands of noted wheeler-dealer Jim Bowden, so he might be available. Since he’s first in the league in on-base average and only 26, he’s also exactly what the Mets need, and probably worth a top prospect like Lastings Milledge.
Short of Johnson, the Mets might look to Arizona, where Chad Tracy (.299/.344/.511) is blocked at third base by Troy Glaus and at first base by top prospect Conor Jackson. Just 25, cheap, and with a reasonable bat, Tracy would be a perfectly adequate solution to the Mets’ needs, as would Milwaukee’s Lyle Overbay (.284/.380/.493), whom I rate behind these other two, mainly because at 28, he’s less likely to improve. Any of these three would come with a fairly steep price tag, but all of them would be worth it, as they could be expected to fill the first-base hole cheaply for years to come.
The last item on the Mets’ shopping list is pitching, specifically the bullpen, where Philadelphia’s Billy Wagner (1.97 ERA, .185 BAA) and Oakland’s Octavio Dotel (an ex-Met who will be recovering from arm surgery) will both be available. These are exactly the sorts of dominant pitchers the Mets need closing out games, and they’re the only players available worth throwing too much money at.
While a plan such as this isn’t too glamorous, it would leave the Mets without a hole in any important spot and with plenty of money to assume an outlandish contract like Ramirez’s if they feel it will put them over the top. It’s worth noting that the only reason the Mets aren’t in first place right now is the league-worst production they’re getting from second and first; just adding solid players at those positions should make the Mets a 90-win team. Add in expected improvement from Wright and Reyes and a return to form from Carlos Beltran, and the pieces are in place for next year’s Mets to run through the league. Having not yet made any rash decisions, GM Omar Minaya has the cash and players he needs to put the final touches on a great team; all that’s left is to do so.