New Philosophies on Winning Will Redefine NHL Draft
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It’s been mere days since the Stanley Cup was awarded to the Carolina Hurricanes, but the ever-active National Hockey League won’t let slush collect under its skates. On Friday, NHL executives and scouting departments assemble in Vancouver for the annual Entry Draft, and after seeing how small-market teams like the Hurricanes, Edmonton Oilers, and Buffalo Sabres succeeded in this year’s playoffs, they’ll likely undertake some radical reshaping of their drafting strategies.
Back in the mid-to-late 1990s, when Eric Lindros was a dominant power forward for the Philadelphia Flyers, teams generally prioritized size and strength over speed and skill, a trend that led to some truly awful personnel decisions around he league. For one shining example, former Islanders GM Mike Milbury selected the plodding Michael Rupp with the ninth overall pick in the 1998 draft, passing over future All-Stars Alex Tanguay, Simon Gagne, and Scott Gomez in the process.
In sharp contrast, the league’s modified rules following the lockout – designed to eliminate obstruction and interference – have made team speed a critical factor. The Hurricanes’ corps of blazing forwards and defensemen was the most important factor in their run to the Cup, so it’s a good bet that speed – rather than size – will be an overriding factor in player evaluation this year.
This year’s draft lacks the presence of a hype machine like Sidney Crosby, but there is still some very noteworthy talent available. Defenseman Erik Johnson distinguished himself with a solid performance at the World Junior Championships, and he’ll probably be rewarded by the St. Louis Blues with the first overall pick. Johnson is a big, fast blueliner in the mold of Colorado Avalanche star Rob Blake, and he’s expected to develop into a top-pair NHL blueliner. In fact, at 6-foot-4, 225 pounds, he may already be ready for the NHL.
If the hype machine is looking for a spark, it might be found in the budding Staal dynasty. Center Eric Staal, the second overall pick of the 2003 draft, led the Hurricanes with 100 points this season. Last year, younger brother Marc, a defenseman, was selected with the 12th overall pick by the Rangers. This year, the Staals will celebrate a third first round pick when center Jordan Staal steps to the podium. Jordan’s stock has risen dramatically over the past six months, and he and Crosby would form a deadly 1-2 punch down the middle for the Penguins, who own the second pick. Amazingly, the best Staal brother may be still to come; 15-year-old Jared will be eligible for the 2008 draft.
Center Nicklas Backstrom is another prospect whose value has increased in recent months, mostly due to his strong performance with Sweden’s gold medal-winning team at the 2006 World Championships. Backstrom is a talented playmaking forward who has drawn comparisons to fellow Swede Peter Forsberg, and he could be just the elixir the foundering Chicago Blackhawks have lacked for a decade.
Phil Kessel emerged as one of the stars of the 2005 World Junior Championships and entered the 2005-06 season as the favorite to go first in this year’s draft, but his stock has fallen precipitously, and he could slip out of the top five. Still, the talented sniper is the purest goal scorer in the draft, and he would give the Washington Capitals an excellent weapon to complement the spectacular Alexander Ovechkin.
Like the Blackhawks, the Boston Bruins are an Original Six team in severe disarray. The Joe Thornton trade was an unmitigated disaster, and they’ll need to do well on Friday to save face with their passionate and disillusioned fan base. Enter Jonathan Toews, a gritty two-way center with excellent playmaking ability. Toews lacks high-end speed, but he makes up for it with a complete game that would endear him to the Bruins’ blue collar fan base.
With the sixth pick, look for the Columbus Blue Jackets to take a flier on dynamic playmaker Derick Brassard, the 175-pound Quebecois center who boasts great speed and excellent vision – two crucial traits necessary for success in today’s NHL.
Of the local teams, the Islanders will be the first to the podium. By virtue of their disappointing finish this season, the Isles own the seventh overall pick and will look to add an impact player. New GM Neil Smith will want to make a big splash, and the supremely talented Michael Frolik could be an excellent choice. A superior skater with a great scoring touch, Frolik has the potential to develop into a top-tier NHL scorer. But if Smith decides instead to shore up the Isles’ blue line presence, defenseman Nigel Williams is a safe option.
The Rangers have done quite well trusting the judgment of Christer Rockstrom, their director of European player personnel. Responsible for the lateround selections of impact players like Henrik Lundqvist and Petr Prucha, Rockstrom is one of the league’s most astute talent evaluators. When the Blueshirts make their first pick at no. 21, look for GM Glen Sather to defer to Rockstrom’s expertise and select one of two Swedes – center Patrik Berglund or defenseman Dennis Persson. Either choice would be a good one, but Berglund probably has a bit more upside and could develop into the Rangers’ second line center of the future.
The Devils have consistently done well at the draft despite picking at the bottom of the first round nearly every year. One reason is that head of scouting David Conte is widely considered to be the best in the business; another is that the Devils never hesitate to buck existing trends. In 2003, they traded up to draft small forward Zach Parise, who’s turned out to be the prototypical “new NHL” player. The following year, New Jersey selected little-known Travis Zajac, who has blossomed into one of the nation’s finest collegiate players.
When the Devils step to the podium, they might find that the diminutive Claude Giroux is the best available option. The speedy forward would fit right in with Parise and Brian Gionta, and has the raw talent to become a marquee NHL scorer.
It’s important to remember that all but a select few of these prospects are about three years away from regular NHL duty, and that the development that takes place between ages 18 and 21 makes a world of difference. The best scouts can see what these players will become; the worst judge them for what they are.
But one thing is certain. With quickness and scoring depth playing an ever-increasing role in on-ice success, teams can no longer afford to squander draft picks. One-line teams won’t succeed in the playoffs, and scoring depth on all four forward lines has become a non-negotiable necessity.
Mr. Greenstein is the editor in chief of InsideHockey.com.