Writing in the New York Times recently, Mets General Manager Omar Minaya laid out a sensible and convincing case that the moves he’s made this off-season are not mere short-term fixes. Aside from the usual sort of palaver one expects to hear from a new GM about pitching, defense, youth, enthusiasm, and “a change in the organization’s overall mind-set and culture,” Minaya pointed to specific ways in which he envisioned the Mets succeeding not only in the short term, but in the long term:

“Our solid core of young players – Beltran (27 years old), Jose Reyes (21), David Wright (22) and Kazuo Matsui (29), among others – provides a base for long-term success. These players embody the elements of our strategy for success. Within the next five to six years, we plan to add similar impact players from our minor league system, while our core players are still within their prime years.”

While this seems at first to be mere rhetoric, it really isn’t. Minaya correctly identifies the young core of his team (we’ll give him a pass on Matsui); correctly notes that over the next five years those players will be in their primes, giving the Mets a window of opportunity to win a championship; and correctly judges that developing new stars from within will be the key to success.

This all seems obvious, but previous Mets GMs might have said that with a core of veteran stars like Pedro Martinez and Mike Cameron, the team was planning to add more veteran stars via trades and free agency in an attempt to win a title while these players were still productive. The mere fact that Minaya is publicly saying the right things is encouraging in its own right.

Of course, there’s more to adding impact players than merely wishing to do so, and here Minaya has quite a lot of work ahead of him. The Mets’ minor league system isn’t the disaster it was a few years ago, but it looks unlikely to produce any star players over the next five years unless the Mets start making serious changes in their approach.

Having lost Scott Kazmir, Matt Peterson, and Justin Huber in the bizarre deadline deals that netted the Mets Kris Benson and Victor Zambrano last July, the Mets’ system doesn’t look good. They don’t have many players with the potential even to be big-league regulars, and what decent players they do have are a long way from the majors.

The top prospect is Lastings Milledge, a 19-year-old center fielder who destroyed Low-A ball last year, posting a .337 BA/.399 OBA/.579 SLG line at Capital City while stealing 23 bases. Milledge ranks just below the elite prospects in the game, and has the potential to be a future All-Star, but he’s no sure thing.

A 26/71 BB/K ratio in 342 at-bats last year is acceptable, but needs to improve. The problem isn’t so much that he doesn’t walk enough as that a ratio like that combined with a high BA shows he was getting by on physical talent. Older and more sophisticated pitchers are going to expose him if he doesn’t develop his eye as he moves up the ladder. Milledge could be Vladimir Guerrero; he could be Ruben Rivera. It’s hard to know which right now.

Just below Milledge is a similarly flawed prospect, pitcher Yusmeiro Petit. A righthander with an average-at-best fastball, Petit has posted a 2.23 ERA and struck out 12 men per 9 innings in 214 minor league innings; he’ll start the year in Double-A having just turned 20 in November. There are no holes in his statistical profile – he doesn’t walk anybody, he allows few home runs, and he’s been young for his leagues.

The problem, actually, is that his numbers are so cartoonishly good that they’re easily discounted. It may turn out that Petit is simply advanced at some aspects of the game compared to the young hitters in A-ball, and that more advanced hitters, less fooled by whatever trickery he’s using to post huge strikeout totals with a weak fastball, will expose him. It also may turn out that Petit is a right-handed Sid Fernandez. This year will be telling.

Past these two, there isn’t much. Baseball America rates Gaby Hernandez as the Mets’ third-best prospect; he’s an 18-year-old pitcher who hasn’t played full-season ball yet, so he’s not really anyone to count on. Ambiorix Concepcion, the next best prospect, is an outfielder, three years older than Hernandez, who hasn’t played full-season ball yet either. And so it goes with most of the players in the system: They’re old for their levels, have serious questions about their physical skills or their performance, or, in most cases, just aren’t very talented.

When appraising the Mets’ farm system, it’s important to remember that it’s not fair to hold the absence of Wright and Reyes from the system against the Mets. Were those two preparing to enter Triple-A this year, the Mets would get a much higher mark; it’s hard to see how the fact that these two were ready for the majors when they were so young reflects badly on the Mets’ scouts or developmental staff. Nonetheless, the fact remains that aside from Milledge and Petit – risky bets both – the Mets don’t have anyone in the system who looks to have a chance to turn into an All-Star.

So what is to be done? Basically, Minaya needs to leave the system alone and stop trading minor leaguers. On both counts, things look sketchy. After arriving in Flushing this off-season, Minaya demoted top scout Jack Bowen and brought in his own man, Russ Bove, who was with him when he ran the Montreal Expos. Given that organization’s barren farm system, that’s not a cause for confidence.

He also traded Ian Bladergroen, one of the best players in the system, for Doug Mientkiewicz. That trade filled an immediate need at an acceptable cost, but if it proves not to be an isolated event, the Mets will be in trouble over the next few years. It’s one thing to have a vision, and quite another to bring it to fruition.