AMERICAN

EAST

BOSTON RED SOX
2005 REC: 95-67
2006 (PROJECTED) 95-67

BEST CASE As has become usual for them, the Red Sox are in position to enjoy a better best-case scenario than just about any other team in baseball. The way you find a David Ortiz-type player is by keeping several around who have that potential, and with undervalued young guys like Hee Seop Choi and Wily Mo Pena on the roster, the Sox have that. They have Comeback Player of the Year candidates like Mike Lowell and Mark Loretta. They have about 19 starting pitchers, many of whom, from Curt Schilling to Josh Beckett to Matt Clement, could dominate. If everything comes together they’ll be the best team in the league.

WORST CASE What separates the Red Sox from the Yankees is depth. Last year, Schilling and Keith Foulke had nothing and the team still won 95 games. The Sox have quality replacements for everyone save Ortiz and Manny Ramirez; the only disastrous scenario involves both of those two missing substantial time.

KEYS TO THE SEASON Odd as it seems, this is a rebuilding year for the Sox. The key for them will be working the next generation of Sox in while getting the most out of the established one. It’s a tricky job.

NEW YORK YANKEES
2005 REC: 95-67
2006 (PROJECTED) 90-72

BEST CASE Usually, you look at the Yankees and figure they could win 120 games if all goes well. That’s not true this year. They could win 100 if they get solid enough starting pitching – the gap between this offense and those of powerful teams like Boston and the Mets is frightening – but expectations have to be lowered a bit. These things are relative, of course.

WORST CASE Last year, the pitching staff sank completely and was bailed out by out-ofnowhere performances from Aaron Small and Shawn Chacon. Should they not get similar luck this year, and should Randy Johnson and Mariano Rivera show their age (something that didn’t happen last year, when it only seemed as if everything that could go wrong went wrong), this team could score 900 runs and still finish below .500.

KEYS TO THE SEASON Assuming reasonable health from Johnson and Rivera, the pitching staff looks unlikely to be much more than a bit above or a bit below league average. An unexpectedly fine performance from someone like Mike Mussina or Carl Pavano could change that.

TORONTO BLUE JAYS
2005 REC: 80-82
2006 (PROJECTED) 81-81

BEST CASE Having spent the GDP of Belize on a bunch of second-tier stars like Troy Glaus, A.J. Burnett, Bengie Molina, and B.J. Ryan this winter, the Jays are like a short-stacked poker player who’s gone all-in with a pair of jacks. It’s worth doing if you’re feeling aggressive and lucky, but there’s a lot out there that can beat you. They’re not in a much different spot than they were before the spending binge: This team can play up to its full potential and still not even finish in second place. They’ll need to play a bit above their heads and hope for problems in Boston and the Bronx to reach October.

WORST CASE The Jays are a very good team, and probably have less downside than the Yankees; their worst case might actually be playing very well and still not being any better than they were last year, when they had the underlying statistics associated with an 88-win team.

KEYS TO THE SEASON From where I sit, the Jays’ moves kept them running in place. They sacrificed a lot of good talent and a lot of defense for their offensive improvement, and I don’t expect their pitching improvements to do much more than offset decline from guys like Gustavo Chacin and Josh Towers, who pitched unexpectedly well last year. If they’re to be really good, the improvement is going to have to come from young players like Alexis Rios and Aaron Hill, who were highly touted prospects a couple of years ago and haven’t really shown much in the majors.

BALTIMORE ORIOLES
2005 REC: 74-88
2006 (PROJECTED) 73-89

BEST CASE I’m probably in a minority of about one here, but I’d be more surprised by the Blue Jays winning the division than the Orioles doing so. Their offensive core of Miguel Tejada, Brian Roberts, Melvin Mora, and Javy Lopez remains strong, and if newcomers Corey Patterson and rookie Nick Markakis play up to their potential, this lineup could be a powder keg. And, of course, they’ve added legendary pitching coach Leo Mazzone, who has some real talent to work with: Daniel Cabrera and Erik Bedard have the potential to be genuine aces, and if Mazzone can do for them what he did for the Braves for so long, the Orioles could be excellent.

WORST CASE Despite their potential, the Orioles remain unsettled. Has Roberts fully recovered from nearly having half of his arm torn off in a baserunning accident last September? Tejada’s numbers fell off a cliff after Rafael Palmeiro threw him under a bus last year with his steroid claims, and he’s not been impressive this spring; can he be counted on for his usual MVPtype performance? Was Mazzone really as responsible as we think for the Braves’ success, or was that down to quality pitchers in a good system?

KEYS TO THE SEASON It’s the pitching. Cabrera, Bedard, Kris Benson, Rodrigo Lopez, and Bruce Chen could make up a White Sox-like rotation – or they could stink again. The talent is there, and Mazzone is there, but they have to do it on the field.

TAMPA BAY DEVILS
2005 REC: 67-95
2006 (PROJECTED) 71-91

BEST CASE: Things are actually looking up for the Devil Rays. They have a new owner and a new front office featuring longtime Astros GM Gerry Hunsicker and a heavy emphasis on Red Soxtype statistical analysis. They have a new skipper, former Angels bench coach Joe Maddon, who’s regarded as one of the brightest managerial prospects in years, and a wealth of young talent, from stud outfielders like Carl Crawford and Delmon Young to future ace Scott Kazmir. They’re not going to win this year, but they could finally start laying the foundations of a winner.

WORST CASE How could things get any worse? Former GM Chuck LaMar and manager Lou Piniella not only built a crummy team, they managed to alienate players who hadn’t even made it to the majors yet.

KEYS TO THE SEASON The Rays are going to spend the season sorting through all their young talent and trying to trade veterans like Aubrey Huff and Julio Lugo for pitching. They need to make sure the manager and the front office are on the same page in terms of developing young players while putting the veterans in the best possible position to drive up their trade value. Piniella-type moves aimed at going from 69 to 72 wins at the cost of the team’s real future will be counterproductive to say the least.

CLEVELAND INDIANS
2005 REC: 93-69
2006 (PROJECTED) 96-66

BEST CASE Last year the Indians won 93 games almost by accident, and would have made the playoffs if not for a total collapse in the last week of the season. Their collection of up-the-middle talent is reminiscent of what Joe Torre had a decade ago, third baseman Andy Marte is still one of the best prospects in the game, and DH Travis Hafner is as good a hitter as there is in the league. This team can be the best in baseball.

WORST CASE Last year’s success was built on great seasons from a lot of young players. Some of them, like Jhonny Peralta, didn’t have track records suggesting they were capable of near-MVP play. Should they collectively regress and should the starting rotation (which is merely decent) take a few bad hits, Cleveland could miss the playoffs again, especially given the quality of the division.

KEYS TO THE SEASON The Indians’ offense is built entirely around Hafner and skill-position players; it got almost nothing from the corners last year. Should Marte and first base prospect Ryan Garko prove ready sooner rather than later, Cleveland will bash its way into the playoffs, no matter how the pitchers do.

CHICAGO WHITE SOX
2005 REC: 99-63
2006 (PROJECTED) 91-71

BEST CASE Last year, the White Sox won with pitching, defense, managerial ingenuity, and the longball. To their immense credit, management realized they weren’t likely to do it again, so they ratcheted up the pitching and power, sacrificing a bit of defense to do it. The pieces are there to win another title if manager Ozzie Guillen can make them fit.

WORST CASE Last year’s team was so successful because its strengths fit together so well: A team with plenty of flyball starters had an exceptional outfield defense; a bullpen with no clear best option had a manager willing to get past arbitrarily anointing an exclusive closer. If the team’s off-season moves harmed this chemistry, leaving the team with too much of this and not enough of that, the Sox could finish as low as fourth.

KEYS TO THE SEASON Last year’s center fielder, Aaron Rowand, was traded for new DH Jim Thome; Rowand is an elite defender and was as responsible as anyone for the success of the pitching staff last season. If his replacement, rookie Brian Anderson, doesn’t prove up to snuff, the team will suffer for it.

MINNESOTA TWINS
2005 REC: 83-79
2006 (PROJECTED) 83-79

BEST CASE The Twins were a maddeningly unbalanced team last year, with a terrible offense and superb pitching and defense anchored by Johan Santana, the game’s best pitcher, and Torii Hunter, arguably its best defender. The pitching and defense should be as good or better this year, and if the disappointing Justin Morneau, promising rookie Jason Kubel, and new leadoff man Luis Castillo play as well as they can, the offense will be strong enough to give the Twins a shot at the division.

WORST CASE The Twins prefer control pitchers who put the ball in play. This sort of pitcher is especially vulnerable to bad luck and bad defense; should the staff run into any of that, the quality of the offense won’t matter much, and the team could finish below .500.

KEYS TO THE SEASON Aside from the hitters mentioned above, the Twins’ wild card is young lefty starter Francisco Liriano. You can’t expect any rookie starter, no matter how touted, to prove a difference-maker, but the potential is there.

CENTRAL

DETROIT TIGERS
2005 REC: 71-91
2006 (PROJECTED) 78-84

BEST CASE Somewhat unbelievably, the Tigers could plausibly win the World Series this year. They have a solid player at every position, including a couple, like Chris Shelton and Curtis Granderson, who have the potential either to break out as stars or put up monster fluke years. The pitching staff, if a bit short in the backend of the rotation, is reasonably deep, and also features a huge breakout candidate in Jeremy Bonderman.

WORST CASE It’s possible that the veterans, like Pudge Rodiguez and Magglio Ordonez, don’t have big years left in them, while the kids don’t have any in them at all. This could be just another year in which the Tigers flail about trying to get to .500.

KEYS TO THE SEASON There’s a great deal of young pitching in baseball right now, but in Joel Zumaya and Justin Verlander, the Tigers have the most highly-touted pair of young pitchers around. Match good contributions from those two with continued improvement from Bonderman and the Tigers, even if they don’t break through this year, could make themselves next year’s favorites.

KANSAS CITY ROYALS
2005 REC: 56-106
2006 (PROJECTED) 54-108

BEST CASE The best case would involve Zack Greinke, their best young pitcher (he went 5-17 with a 5.80 ERA last year after the team decided he needed to focus on throwing hard rather than well), deciding he doesn’t want to retire due to what appears to be some sort of emotional or mental illness that caused him to walk out of camp. I’m not making any of this up.

WORST CASE Doug Mientkiewicz is one of the team’s better players. I’m not making this up! Playing in what may be baseball’s toughest division, the Royals could lose a record number of games.

KEYS TO THE SEASON The team needs to be sold and basically everyone who works for it needs to be fired. The Royals have set a new franchise record for losses in four of the last five years, and are getting worse. This is a franchise so stupid it’s considering moving Alex Gordon, the best college hitter in last year’s draft, from third base to right field so as not to interfere with Mark Teahen, a defensive butcher who slugged .409 in the minors.

WEST

OAKLAND ATHLETICS
2005 REC: 95-67
2006 (PROJECTED) 95-64

BEST CASE On paper, the A’s are the best team in baseball. They have four starters who look like good bets to pitch 200 innings with ERAs below 4.00; the fifth, Rich Harden, might not get to 200 innings, but he’s an excellent bet to win the Cy Young Award if he does. There are no holes in the lineup, most of their position players are top defenders, and the bench and bullpen are both deep. They could run away from a tough division.

WORST CASE I’m not much for chemistry arguments, but there are a few actively disruptive players on this team, ranging from Jay Payton, who sulked his way out of Boston in a childish way last year, to Milton Bradley, whom I wouldn’t have on my team if he hit like Albert Pujols and fielded like Johnny Bench. (Last year, in addition to his usual fights with teammates and the press, the police were reportedly called to Bradley’s house for several domestic violence incidents involving his pregnant wife.) One can envision the A’s falling apart off the field the way the Cubs and Orioles have in recent years. In a pure baseball sense, the worst case involves another team being much better than expected and chasing the A’s down to the wire.

KEYS TO THE SEASON Given the team’s depth and potential, manager Ken Macha and GM Billy Beane need to be ready to cut bait on players causing genuine problems. Other than that, they should be set.

L.A. ANGELS OF ANAHEIM
2005 REC: 95-67
2006 (PROJECTED) 82-80

BEST CASE The Angels have had a very successful formula the last couple of years. A great bullpen, a solid rotation, Vladimir Guerrero, and exceptional fundamentals have covered up for a variety of glaring flaws, such as a lack of good hitters. There’s no particular reason to think they can’t win another division crown with the same strategy.

WORST CASE The lack of offense is really incredible; some statistical projection systems see the Angels having a worse offense than the Royals. That seems a bit much, but as we saw in 2003, when the defending champion Angels finished below .500, their reliance on high batting averages and decent starting pitching – two of the least dependable things around which you can build a team – has its downsides.

KEYS TO THE SEASON The Angels have holes all through the lineup, partly because of their admirable refusal to block the promising crew of young hitters in their minor league system. Manager Mike Scioscia has proved able to cover glaring holes by deftly using limited players like Robb Quinlan and Jeff DaVanon in a way that takes full advantage of their talents; if he can do so again he could make the naysayers look foolish. Again.

SEATTLE MARINERS
2005 REC: 69-93
2006 (PROJECTED) 75-86

BEST CASE The Mariners are one of many AL teams that would stand a good shot of winning a playoff berth if they were in the National League. In Felix Hernandez, they have a 20-year-old who might be the best pitcher in the game this year; Ichiro Suzuki, Richie Sexson, and Adrian Beltre form a solid crew of hitters to build around; and with Japanese newcomer Kenji Johjima catching and sophomore center fielder Jeremy Reed looking to live up to the promise he showed in the minors, you can think up nice scenarios for the team.

WORST CASE When contention depends on one guy hitting .370, a 20-year-old ace, and the bizarrely inconsistent Beltre, the pitfalls are many. Add in the team’s propensity for paying top dollar for overrated veterans like Jarrod Washburn, and Seattle is far likelier to have a bunch of bad surprises than a bunch of good ones.

KEYS TO THE SEASON There’s no real way to know how to balance the need to give a young pitcher enough work to properly develop him with the need to use him lightly enough to avoid injuring him. This being so, Hernandez is the most exciting young pitcher since Dwight Gooden. Finding that balance is the most important thing Seattle can do this season.

TEXAS RANGERS
2005 REC: 79-83
2006 (PROJECTED) 75-87

BEST CASE Stop me if you’ve heard this before. Despite a lack of pitching, the Rangers can bash their way into the playoffs behind an outlandishly strong group of young hitters, among them defending batting champion Michael Young and future home run champion Mark Teixeira.

WORST CASE Expensive pitching acquisitions like Kevin Millwood and Adam Eaton turn out to be at best as good as the inadequate hurlers they’re replacing; the team proves utterly unable to hit on the road; control-freak manager Buck Showalter loses the team and they play out the string putting up meaninglessly gaudy numbers before going into an off-season in which they look to make expensive pitching acquisitions.

KEYS TO THE SEASON With so many good young hitters who can’t field and a supposedly bright new management team in place, the best thing the Rangers can do this season would be to trade off some of the excess for some real pitchers.

PLAYOFF PICKS

DIVISION SERIES
Oakland Athletics defeat Chicago White Sox
Boston Red Sox defeat Cleveland Indians

CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES
Oakland Athletics defeat Boston Red Sox

MOST VALUABLE PLAYER
Manny Ramirez, Boston

CY YOUNG AWARD
Johan Santana, Minnesota

ROOKIE OF THE YEAR AWARD
Ian Kinsler, Texas

NATIONAL

EAST

NEW YORK METS
2005 REC: 83-79
2006 (PROJECTED) 93-69

BEST CASE: All the team’s older stars perform up to expectations, Carlos Beltran has a big bounceback season, David Wright and Jose Reyes continue to improve, a great bullpen means that games are over if the Mets have a lead going into the sixth inning, and some of the younger role players like Xavier Nady and Anderson Hernandez have breakout campaigns. The Mets near 100 victories and dominate in the postseason.

WORST CASE The team’s older stars succumb to injuries or decline, the middle infield provides 1200 plate appearances of sub-.300 on-base percentage baseball, and the fragile rotation ends up burning the bullpen out by July. The Mets struggle to break .500.

KEYS TO THE SEASON First – and more so than most teams – health. Pedro Martinez (toe), Carlos Delgado (elbow), Billy Wagner (finger), and Cliff Floyd (kidneys) all have various health problems already; the Mets absolutely need them to stay on the field. After that, team defense. The infield is potentially atrocious and fans are going to miss Mike Cameron when Nady and Victor Diaz stumble around after balls in the spacious Shea outfield. Better fundamental play from Wright and Reyes will help a lot.

ATLANTA BRAVES
2005 REC: 90-72
2006 (PROJECTED) 89-73

BEST CASE Whatever secret powers the Braves hierarchy wields over fate and destiny continue to be effective. Last year, with both the Mets and Phillies fielding superior teams on paper, three-fifths of their rotation on the disabled list at one point, and a lineup that sometimes consisted entirely of Andruw Jones and rookies, the Braves still won their 14th straight division title. I feel like a fool for picking against them this year.

WORST CASE The only reason I’m willing to pick against them is that pitching coach Leo Mazzone – who, if he wasn’t the whole of their secret powers, was at least a huge part – has left for the Orioles and been replaced by Roger McDowell the beloved Mets icon best known for chewing gum and setting people’s shoes on fire. Should Mazzone’s departure leave the Braves playing to their talent level, which they haven’t done for years, they could be decidedly mediocre.

KEY TO THE SEASON Right fielder Jeff Francouer was a monster last year, hitting .300 with 14 homers in 257 at-bats in his big league debut despite a Jose Reyes-like aversion to the free pass. If he proves to be a Vladimir Guerrero-type talent, he’ll lead the Braves’ next generation; of course, it’s also possible he could be eaten alive in his second go around the league.

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
2005 REC: 88-74
2006 (PROJECTED) 83-79

BEST CASE: The Phillies arguably have the most talent in the division. Reigning rookie of the year Ryan Howard and Chase Utley make up a fearsome right side of the infield, Bobby Abreu remains one of the best players in the game, and solid contributors like Pat Burrell, Aaron Rowand, and Jimmy Rollins (who enters the season with a 36-game hitting streak) help make this an excellent lineup. There’s also a great deal of upside in the rotation – if youngsters like Brett Myers, Gavin Floyd, and Ryan Madson all click, this team could resemble last year’s White Sox with more offense.

WORST CASE Of course, this is the same thing everyone’s been saying for years. General managers and managers have come and gone, superstars have been imported and traded, and none of it’s made a difference. The downside here isn’t a 100-loss season or anything so destructive, just more of the same – a team hovering below its potential for some obscure reason possibly having to do with the culture of the team or the whims of fate, which hate Philadelphia.

KEY TO THE SEASON Because the team hemmed and hawed about whether to commit to or trade them for years, people have the idea that Howard and Utley are young studs. They aren’t; Howard is 26 and Utley is 27, and it’s possible they had their career years last year. If they decline, the Phillies are going to have a much harder time winning a tough division.

WASHINGTON NATIONALS
2005 81-81
2006 (PROJECTED) 75-87

BEST CASE: You saw their best case last year: Almost everyone, even Nick Johnson, stayed healthy, the scrap-heap rotation performed above expectations, Frank Robinson brooked no hotheadedness, and the team rode a hot start to an 81-81 finish. A year on, with a bit less talent and a few more injury issues (right fielder Jose Guillen will miss the first two months), it will take some doing to climb over .500.

WORST CASE: Well, there’s that Alfonso Soriano situation you may have heard about. There’s also an utter lack of depth, which is the real problem with this team, and the presence of Cristian Guzman, arguably the worst regular in the major leagues. (His OPS last year was .574; five NL hitters had higher slugging averages.) The Nats could lose 90 or more with a few bad breaks like an injury to hefty, 31-year-old ace Livan Hernandez.

KEYS TO THE SEASON: Washington’s problems are deeply rooted, and have more to do with the corrupt ownership situation than anything else. If MLB sells the team to someone who will allow management the same resources as any normal team, the Nats should be set up well to make a run in 2007. Keep an eye on rookie third baseman Ryan Zimmerman, who will be the starter after a grand total of 67 minor league games. Long-time scouts swear he’s a Brooks Robinson-class defender.

FLORIDA MARLINS
2005 REC: 83-79
2006 (PREDICTED) 61-101

BEST CASE Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis win the MVP and Cy Young awards, respectively, and right fielder Jeremy Hermida wins the Rookie of the Year award; the Marlins still lose 90 games.

WORST CASE You can’t judge this team by normal standards. After failing to reach the playoffs last year, ownership demanded a complete teardown, and the team dumped every veteran, bringing in a preposterous haul of young talent from teams like the Mets and Red Sox. They can’t be judged by how many games they win, but by how well that young talent is developed.

KEYS TO THE SEASON: The Marlins actually have the core of a pretty good offense, but it’s possible they’ll botch it up. Cabrera is moving from the outfield to his natural position of third base, but his increased defensive responsibilities could detract from his offense, which is a big risk considering he’s one of the five best hitters in the league at age 23. And Hermida is thought to be a superstar in the making, but his huge minor league walk totals might be evidence of undesirable passivity and a low ceiling as much as anything else. Can rookie manager Joe Girardi make him more aggressive without crippling what’s been a successful approach?

CENTRAL

ST. LOUIS CARDINALS
2005 REC: 100-62
2006 (PROJECTED) 94-68

BEST CASE As the Cardinals showed last year, they hardly need everything to go right to be the best team in the league. Albert Pujols, who’s well-established as the best player in the game, gives them an enormous advantage; so long as the rest of the team is average, they should win 90. If Jim Edmonds, Scott Rolen, and Chris Carpenter stay healthy, they could again win 100 and finally win a World Series.

WORST CASE If Edmonds, Rolen, and Carpenter, all of whom have dealt with injuries in recent years, all get hurt, and a team like the Brewers or Cubs plays to their potential, the Cards could have a 2003-like campaign, in which they merely win 85 games.

KEYS TO THE SEASON Keep an eye on Sir Sidney Ponson, noted drunk and assaulter of judges; much of the reason the LaRussa Cardinals have been so successful is that everyone works hard, buys into the system, and plays up to their potential. Bringing in this sort of clubhouse cancer contradicts what’s been working for them.

MILWAUKEE BREWERS
2005 REC: 81-81
2006 (PREDICTED) 84-78

BEST CASE I may be a year ahead of things by picking the Brewers this high, but they have a lot of talent. Prince Fielder, Rickie Weeks, J.J. Hardy, and Bill Hall make up the best young infield in the game; veteran star Carlos Lee is the kind of lineup anchor young, promising teams of this sort often lack; and the rotation, headed by Ben Sheets and Chris Capuano, who quietly won 18 games last year, is solid. It’s not hard to see them winning 90 games with breakout years from Weeks and Sheets, a Rookie of the Year award for Fielder, and respectableto-superior play from everyone else.

WORST CASE There isn’t a lot of down side here. The Brewers’ goals are to acclimate Fielder and Weeks to the majors, work on fundamentals, and prepare themselves for a serious run in 2007. If things don’t work out for whatever reason, GM Doug Melvin, who has an outstanding eye for talent, can trade Lee and Geoff Jenkins to meet team needs and get ready for next year.

KEYS TO THE SEASON Sheets needs to make 34 starts and Weeks and Fielder need to hit for average in their first extended exposure; none of this is anything to wager more than a dollar on.

CHICAGO CUBS
2005 REC: 79-83
2006 (PROJECTED) 82-80

BEST CASE Derrek Lee hits like Lou Gehrig, Aramis Ramirez continues to perform like one of the best pure power hitters in the game, and Michael Barrett outhits every catcher in the league. On the mound, ace Carlos Zambrano continues to be one of the game’s best pitchers, Mark Prior contributes 170 strong innings, and Kerry Wood establishes himself as a force out of the bullpen, while Greg Maddux eats innings and Ryan Dempster is effective if a bit wild as the closer.

Wait, that all happened last year and the team didn’t even break .500.

WORST CASE Young outfielder Matt Murton goes 1-for-3 in the season opener and gets benched because Baker doesn’t like the cut of his jib. Baker and pitching coach Larry Rothschild (who refuse to acknowledge any causal relationship between their use of Prior and Wood in 2003 and the arm woes the two have since suffered) rip Zambrano’s arm off and use it to beat him into submission.

KEYS TO THE SEASON Derrek Lee led the NL in batting average, doubles, slugging percentage, hits, extra-base hits, and total bases last year while stealing 15 bases, winning a Gold Glove. Neifi Perez, as he has every year since 2001, posted an on-base average below .300. He also grounded into 22 double plays, third in the NL. Guess which one Baker claimed was the Cubs’ MVP? This man needs to be fired.

HOUSTON ASTROS
2005 REC: 89-73
2006 (PREDICTED) 77-85

BEST CASE I might be underestimating the Astros. Roy Oswalt and Andy Pettite are two of the ten best pitchers in the league, closer Brad Lidge is excellent in the regular season, Lance Berkman and Morgan Ensberg are fine hitters, and the team has some other useful players. Even without Roger Clemens and with the aging Craig Biggio, Jeff Bagwell, and Brad Ausmus around, the Astros might have enough in the tank to make another run at the wild card.

WORST CASE If Pettite’s balky elbow acts up, Oswalt might be the only good pitcher in the rotation. Berkman is a no. 3 hitter on any team, but it’s easy to imagine him being the only good hitter on the team. Bagwell seems done for good. This could be the worst team in the division.

KEYS TO THE SEASON The Astros have been one of the most consistently excellent teams in baseball for the last decade; it’s time now for them to begin rebuilding. Unless Roger Clemens decides to return in May. If he does it will be worthwhile to try and squeeze one more drop of juice out of the lemon.

CINCINNATI REDS
2005 REC: 73-89
2006 (PROJECTED) 76-86

BEST CASE The Reds had the best offense and the worst pitching staff in the NL last year, even after taking park effects into account. The offense isn’t going to be quite as good, but it’s still likely to be championship-caliber, so if they can get anything remotely approaching average performance from their pitchers. they could make a serious playoff run.

WORST CASE Having managed to turn a glut of outfielders and first basemen into two no. 5 pitchers and Scott Hatteberg, the Reds won’t have the kind of offensive depth on which they’ve relied over the last few years, especially since they can’t count on a healthy season from Ken Griffey, Jr. Since their bullpen still stinks and their ro tation consists of five no. 5 starters (this is actually an improvement on last year), they could surpass last year’s 89 losses.

KEYS TO THE SEASON With new ownership and a new front office, the Reds have a chance to turn their team from a run-scoring machine into a real live baseball team. The new regime’s first significant move-trading Wily Mo Pena, who has an excellent shot of turning into the next Sammy Sosa, for reliably mediocre starter Bronson Arroyo-wasn’t encouraging.

PITTSBURGH PIRATES
2005 REC: 67-95
2006 (PROJECTED) 74-88

BEST CASE There is no best-case scenario for the Pirates. They haven’t had a winning season since 1992, and it’s not an accident. The team has consistently eschewed investment in major league payroll, the amateur draft, international free agents, development personnel, or much of anything else. This is a shame, because with players like Jason Bay, Oliver Perez, and Zach Duke, the Pirates have had the kind of irreplaceable star talent needed to build a great ballclub.

WORST CASE The one thing the Pirates have avoided is the kind of truly disastrous, 105-loss type season that would cripple what is left of what was once one of the most loyal fanbases in the game. It’s imaginable they could have that kind of year in 2006.

KEYS TO THE SEASON New manager Jim Tracy did an excellent job in Los Angeles, sifting through a variety of flawed veterans and promising young players and generally getting the most out of them. If Tracy can do that in Pittsburgh he’ll make the team more attractive to a potential buyer.

LOS ANGELES DODGERS
2005 REC: 71-91
2006 (PROJECTED) 89-73

BEST CASE If J.D Drew and Eric Gagne stay healthy, this team is potentially as good as any in the league. No team with Derek Lowe as its presumptive ace and the aged likes of Kenny Lofton and Bill Mueller in key roles can be regarded as particularly sexy, but they’re solid at every position and in every slot in the rotation. With what may be the most well-regarded group of prospects in the game, the Dodgers are also well-positioned to improve in-season one way or another.

WORST CASE Any team relying on Drew, Gagne, and Nomar Garciaparra to stay healthy clearly has the potential to disappoint; any team with Lowe, Garciaparra, and Jeff Kent also clearly has the potential to have the kind of disruptive clubhouse issues that can sink a season. Somewhat oddly, health and chemistry led last year to a 91-loss season and the departures of the manager, GM, and several valuable players; this year could be the same play with a new cast.

KEYS TO THE SEASON Health is the key to almost every team’s season, but it’s more important for the Dodgers than it is for almost any other team. There’s also the issue of new manager Grady Little, generally re-

ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS
2005 REC: 77-85
2006 (PROJECTED) 82-80

BEST CASE The Diamondbacks, like the Brewers, are probably a year or so away from being truly impressive, but this team is far better than you might think considering they’ve lost 196 games over the last two years. In Brandon Webb they have a true ace, and at every position they either have a potential star like Conor Jackson, a solid young veteran in his prime like Orlando Hudson, or a reasonable placeholder like Eric Byrnes. Best of all, the placeholders will be replaced by the likes of Stephen Drew and Chris Young, who have the potential to be the best players in the league at their positions. Should the kids prove ready quickly enough, the Snakes could make a stunning run.

WORST CASE The problem with the above scenario is that past Webb, the team has no pitching. I hold Orlando Hernandez in higher re gard than the next man, but the 112-year-old veteran hasn’t started 30 games since 1999, and he’s the team’s no. 2 starter.

KEYS TO THE SEASON Because they have such a stunning amount of young talent coming up through their system, the main key to the Diamondbacks’ season will be getting Drew, Young, and co. on the field as soon as possible and figuring out which of them they should trade for pitching. That will be the key both to their long-term future and to their hopes of contention this season.

SAN DIEGO PADRES
2005 REC: 82-80
2006 (PREDICTED) 79-83

BEST CASE The Padres aren’t a very good team, anymore than they were last year, when they backed into the playoffs with only 82 wins. Again, their best bet is to finish a bit over .500 and hope everyone else in the division is terrible. It’s not that bad a plan – while they might not have a ton of upside (with Jake Peavy, who’s won an ERA title and strikeout crown before turning 25 and Brian Giles) they don’t have much downside, either.

WORST CASE As noted, the Padres don’t have all that much downside. Their team is built around having a true ace in the rotation, a monster offensive performer in the lineup, and hoping the rest of the team isn’t too bad. With players like Khalil Greene, Mike Piazza, and Mike Cameron, it’s probably not going to be. On the other hand, any team that dares fate by rolling out both Chan Ho Park and Shawn Estes in the same rotation has the potential for true catastrophe.

KEYS TO THE SEASON Young second baseman Josh Barfield has minor-star potential. The Padres don’t need him to be an All-Star, but a pleasant surprise from him, especially on defense, would fortify the team’s chances.

SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
2005 REC: 75-87
2006 (PROJECTED) 78-82

BEST CASE The Giants are entirely reliant on Barry Bonds, whose knee cartilage was eaten away by bacteria last year, leaving him sitting on a stool between rounds of batting practice. (We also hear he has some other distractions going on.) If he plays 125 games at his usual level, the Giants could win what is still the weakest division in the game.

WORST CASE If some Bonds-hater breathes on his knee, or if a breeze off McCovey Cove catches the knee at the wrong angle, he’ll either go on the DL or retire, which would make the truly unbelievably old Giants probably the worst team in the league.

KEYS TO THE SEASON It’s all about Bonds. Nothing else really matters.

COLORADO ROCKIES
2005 REC: 67-95
2006 (PREDICTED) 62-100

BEST CASE The Rockies are one of those rare, truly hopeless teams for which it’s impossible to come up with any kind of reasonable scenario that would put them in the playoffs.

WORST CASE Having lost at least 89 games in each of the last five seasons, the Rockies have still avoided any irredeemably ugly seasons. They might not be so fortunate this year – the only difference between them and the Kansas City Royals has been Todd Helton, who’s now 32 with a balky back.

KEYS TO THE SEASON Hoping the rest of the division is bad enough that they can get down to 88 losses, which would actually represent progress? Getting some major league caliber hitters on the roster?

PLAYOFF PICKS

DIVISION SERIES
New York Mets defeat Los Angeles Dodgers
St. Louis Cardinals defeat Atlanta Braves

CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES
St. Louis Cardinals defeat New York Mets

MOST VALUABLE PLAYER
Albert Pujols, St. Louis

CY YOUNG AWARD
Carlos Zambrano, Chicago

ROOKIE OF THE YEAR AWARD
Prince Fielder, Milwaukee