Sometime soon, if he has not done so already (San Diego’s game with Houston had not concluded at press time), Trevor Hoffman will earn his 425th save, passing John Franco for second place among the all-time save leaders. Barring injury, Hoffman will almost certainly pass Lee Smith for first place in the next two years, and he will probably become the first pitcher to reach 500 saves.

Leaving aside the criticisms that can be made of the somewhat artificial save statistic, it’s a remarkable achievement, the fruit of Hoffman’s exceptional effectiveness and durability.

For over a decade now, Hoffman has been among the best closers in baseball. Among his peers, only Mariano Rivera has clearly been better.

Usually, ranking among the best at a position for a solid decade would earn a player recognition in Cooperstown, but the standards for what constitutes a Hall of Fame career for a closer are still evolving. With the exception of Dennis Eckersley, no modern single-inning closers have been elected to the Hall. The reason for that, in part, is the fact that so few are worthy, but the single-inning closer has been with us for nearly 30 years. Baseball has recognized it as the best way to use ace relievers; it’s probably past time for Hall voters to recognize that reality.

Hoffman, when his election time comes due, may well serve as the litmus test for whether the modern closer can be elected to the Hall. Rivera will go in on the first ballot, but he’s such a transcendent and singular player that his election won’t reflect on his peers. If Hoffman goes in, it will be a sign of the Hall altering its standards to accommodate changes in the way the game is played. If Hoffman is denied, it will be equally telling. The question, then, is whether or not Hoffman is worthy of the Hall. Should it change its standards to enshrine a pitcher who often threw only 60 innings a year?

Years ago, Bill James designed a list of questions, called the Keltner List, to be used in just such a situation. Named after the third baseman Ken Keltner, who had a rather loud group advocating for his enshrinement in Cooperstown, the list is designed to gather thoughts about a player. It’s not a passfail test, but rather a way to put a candidacy in perspective. I’ve used it here to gain some perspective on Hoffman. James’s original Keltner List is 15 questions, but for space reasons, we’ll use only 10 of them here.

Was he ever regarded as the best player in baseball? Did anybody, while he was active, ever suggest that he was the best player in baseball?

No.

Was he the best player on his team?

Hoffman has never had a season in which he was clearly the best player on his team. There’s always been someone like Tony Gwynn, Ken Caminiti, or Brian Giles who was better. Since 1995, though, he’s been the one player the Padres could rely on every year for star caliber performance, and in that sense he’s probably been their best player over that time.

Was he the best player in baseball at his position? Was he the best player in the league at his position?

Hoffman was the best closer in baseball in 1998,when he finished second in Cy Young balloting. He was the best closer in the league by consensus from about 1996 until 2002, when John Smoltz and Eric Gagne emerged as elite closers, though some would have argued for Robb Nen as the best closer in the league during that period.

Did he have an impact on a number of pennant races?

Yes – the Padres won a division title and a pennant and have been involved in pennant races the last two years. Hoffman particularly excelled in 1998, when he didn’t blow a save until June 25 and allowed only one run in 7 2/3 innings in the playoffs before faltering in the World Series.

Was he good enough that he could play regularly after passing his prime?

Yes. Hoffman is still an effective closer years after his prime.

Is he the very best baseball player in history who is not in the Hall of Fame?

No. Ron Santo, Minnie Minoso, and Bert Blyleven, among others, were better.

Is there any evidence to suggest that the player was significantly better or worse than is suggested by his statistics?

Yes. Research attempting to quantify the impact of the fact that closers pitch more important innings than starters suggests that doubling Hoffman’s innings totals might be a better way to judge his impact than just taking the raw numbers at face value.

How many MVP-type seasons did he have? Did he ever win an MVP award? If not, how many times was he close?

Depending on how much extra credit you want to give him for the impact of his innings, one might make an argument that at his very best – in 1996 (2.25 ERA, 88 IP, 42 SV) and 1998 (1.48, 73, 53) – Hoffman had a couple of seasons in which he was an MVP candidate. He was not the best player in the league in either of those seasons, though.

How many All-Star-type seasons did he have? How many All-Star games did he play in? Did most of the players who played in this many All-Star games go into the Hall of Fame?

Hoffman has made four All-Star teams, a bit low for a Hall of Famer. He’s had nine All-Star caliber seasons.

If this man were the best player on his team, would it be likely that the team could win the pennant?

If he was the best player on a very balanced team with several players of his quality, the team could win the pennant. (This actually happened in 1998.)

In all, I’m surprised by how well the answers to these questions reflect on Hoffman. While clearly not a no-brainer Hall of Famer like Rivera, Hoffman’s been consistent and durable and had a long run as a dominant player. He compares well to recent inductees like Tony Perez and Catfish Hunter.

While not a great player in the mold of a Willie Mays or a Tom Seaver, Hoffman has been a truly excellent player for a long time, and by the standards of the Hall of Fame he deserves election, whether or not he ever makes it to 500 saves.