Parity Has Created a Seller’s Market

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The New York Sun

The NHL’s trade deadline is only seven weeks away, and if the current league standings are any indication of what’s to come, there will not be very many “sellers” hawking their wares at discount prices. The annual swap meet — set to conclude on February 26 — usually has an enormous impact on the playoff races and the postseason, but this year, influential trades may be few and far between.

Entering last night’s games, only 10 points separated the second-place New Jersey Devils from the 14th-place Washington Capitals in the Eastern Conference standings. Out west, only 11 points separate the second-place San Jose Sharks from the 14th-place Chicago Blackhawks, with the Los Angeles Kings the only club in either conference that has been effectively eliminated from playoff contention at the season’s halfway point.

Certainly, parity has its positives. The imposition of a salary cap following the 2004–05 lockout has succeeded in shrinking the gap between the league’s “haves” and “have-nots,” to the point where it is virtually impossible to predict this spring’s playoff participants, much less handicap a Stanley Cup victor.

Consequently, nearly every NHL team rightly believes it has a chance to go deep into the postseason. Although the Ottawa Senators’ nine-point Eastern Conference lead may appear insurmountable, only the Detroit Red Wings have established themselves as a team capable of dominating for significant stretches.

Of course, there’s also a negative to the parity. With the standings so jam-packed, it will be difficult for a Cup hopeful to significantly upgrade its roster in preparation for a long playoff run, for doing so will likely involve convincing another contender to, in effect, give up on their season. Furthermore, with the Collective Bargaining Agreement preventing the contenders from distancing themselves from the pretenders, the eventual Stanley Cup champions will be feted more for their endurance than their excellence. But even if the dealing won’t be as frenzied as in years passed, there will still be plenty of speculation and intrigue over the next seven weeks.

For Kings GM Dean Lombardi in particular, this would be an ideal time to start working the phones. As the NHL’s only certain seller, he has a great opportunity to get tremendous returns in exchange for veterans Rob Blake, Ladislav Nagy, Brad Stuart, and Jaroslav Modry, all of whom are due to become unrestricted free agents this coming summer. By jumping the gun, Lombardi could be the sole beneficiary of a definite seller’s market. His Kings already boast a deep core of young talent rivaled only by the Pittsburgh Penguins, and a few prescient moves in advance of the deadline will help to accelerate their rebuilding process.

Looking locally, the Rangers have just more than $2 million of cap space, but they’ll have more flexibility if they include nonessential rearguard Paul Mara in a deal. Mara, an offensive defenseman who has tallied only three assists in his last 18 games, is on the books for $3 million this season; the UFA-to-be will likely be included in any consequential trade. The Devils have a bit more wiggle room, with just under $3 million to work with. But there’s good reason to wonder whether GM Lou Lamoriello would (or even should) risk altering his team’s chemistry. His hardworking team has acclimated itself quickly to first-year head coach Brent Sutter, and Lamoriello would be best advised to avoid making any major alterations.

The Islanders have more than $7 million of space under the cap, and though they operate under a tighter budget than do the Rangers and Devils, owner Charles Wang demonstrated last spring that he’s unafraid to open the purse springs if it might be a tipping point in his team’s quest for the Cup. The acquisitions of Ryan Smyth and Richard Zednik alone added more than $2 million to the Isles’ actual expenses in 2006–07, and it stands to reason that if GM Garth Snow’s club is sill in the playoff hunt as the deadline approaches — and if he’s able to find a willing trade partner — he’ll again act boldly.

Of the remaining bubble teams, the most compelling potential seller is the Tampa Bay Lightning, hamstrung by the salaries given to their “big three” forwards: Brad Richards ($7.8 million), Vincent Lecavalier ($6.875 million), and Martin St. Louis ($5.525 million). Currently in last place in the Eastern Conference, the Lightning are still searching for a replacement for Nikolai Khabibulin (who departed as a free agent in the summer of 2005), and that hole in goal has effectively crippled the 2004 Cup champions for three seasons running.

Richards is signed through the 2010–11 season, and the combination of his onerous contract and dismal play away from the puck (he’s a combined minus-43 dating back to last season) render him effectively untradable. Lecavalier, without question the face of the franchise, would also be nearly impossible to part with; his presence increases the franchise’s value. And so that leaves St. Louis, a former Hart Trophy winner with a no-trade clause.

Should the Rangers decide that their sputtering offense needs a boost, St. Louis would be an excellent fit alongside Chris Drury on the second line. And with Henrik Lundqvist entrenched between the pipes on Broadway, it would seem logical to package top prospect Alvaro Montoya along with Mara in a deal for St. Louis and a goaltending prospect (perhaps Karri Ramo) to give the Blueshirts some systemic depth.

Another lesser-known Lightning player, defenseman Dan Boyle, is recovering from wrist surgery. One of the NHL’s most effective power play quarterbacks, Boyle would be a great fit on all three metro-area teams. He could capably fill the role vacated by Brian Rafalski in New Jersey and would be a nice complement to Marc-Andre Bergeron on the point of the Isles’ struggling power play. But because they have Montoya to offer — a goaltending prospect far superior to any in the Devils’ and Isles’ systems — the Rangers just might have the upper hand in negotiations to acquire both Boyle and St. Louis in a blockbuster deal that would successfully separate them from the pack in the quest for the Cup.

Mr. Greenstein is the editor in chief of InsideHockey.com.


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