Hard as this may be to remember, baseball players occasionally play baseball when they aren’t writing obnoxious books about steroids, testifying before federal grand juries, giving press conferences about their testimony, breaking traffic laws, or breaking their pitching hands in fistfights. And in this season, as in every season, some of them will play not only better than they ever have, but than anyone could reasonably expect.

One of the great joys of the game is watching someone like Ben Sheets go, as he did last year, from an unspectacular innings-eater to the best pitcher in the league, or seeing someone like Adam Dunn transform from Pete Incaviglia into Reggie Jackson. Who will be this year’s Sheets and Dunn?

It’s almost impossible to say. Most young pitchers don’t go from striking out 6.4 men per nine innings to striking out 10, and most young hitters don’t add 50 points to their batting average. Those who do, though, tend to have something in common: They hold their own at a young age in the major leagues.

In baseball as in politics, one of the downsides of the increased amount of information available through cable TV, talk radio, and the Internet is the quickening of news cycles and the expectation of instant greatness. A player can be hyped as a minor-leaguer for years, brought up to the majors, fail to instantly win an MVP, and be dismissed as old, tired news at age 24.

That’s what happened to Dunn and Sheets. Both were top prospects who broke into the National League in 2001 (Dunn was 21, Sheets 22) and put up more or less league-average numbers for the next three seasons. They seem to have been around forever, and yet neither is old enough to avoid exorbitant premiums on car insurance. The lesson here for teams, fans, edge-seeking fantasy players, and those who just want to impress friends with their prescience is simple: Patience pays.

Close to home, you might look at Mets shortstop Jose Reyes as a prime example of a player just waiting to explode on the league. Bad as he was last year, here’s what Reyes has done: Over a season’s worth of at-bats taking place before he’s turned 22, he’s been a league average offensive player.

Exactly four shortstops have matched that feat since integration: Alex Rodriguez, Jim Fregosi, Garry Templeton, and Cal Ripken Jr. In other words, Reyes is as sure a bet as a 21-year-old can be to play in multiple All-Star games. Mets fans should keep that in mind before expressing disappointment that he’s not already winning batting titles.

Another variation on this theme is when a player does establish himself as a star from the time he enters the league, but doesn’t become a superstar right away. Before his MVP-caliber 2004 campaign, you saw this with Scott Rolen, who was viewed as a slight disappointment despite a career that will one day put him in the Hall of Fame, barring injury of course.

The player who fits the profile this year is A’s third baseman Eric Chavez. Pretty much every year since he was 22, Chavez has been good for a .280 average, 30 home runs, and a Gold Glove. Last year, at 26, he did that and also led the American League in walks despite playing in only 125 games. He’ll be 27 this year, the most common age for players to have their best season, and he looks to me like the early favorite for American League MVP.

(Perhaps Mets fans can think of a third baseman who fits the Rolen/Chavez profile. If they keep that in mind, they may be able to temper their disappointment should David Wright “only”hit,say,.275 with 25 home runs and great defense this year.)

Still another scenario that could set up a breakout season is when a hyped young player endures injuries that are not career-threatening. Look to Florida, where the Marlins have the pitcher likeliest to do what Sheets did last year: Josh Beckett. Just 24, Beckett already won a World Series MVP and has put up some impressive statistics: He strikes out a man per inning, whiffs three times as many batters as he walks, and allows less than a home run per nine innings.

Best of all, a series of minor blisters and other petty injuries have kept him from amassing huge innings totals at a young age. At 22, he pitched 107 innings in the majors; at 23, he pitched 181, and at 24, 157. Right now, he’s one of the better pitchers in the league; were he actually to improve, and make 32 starts, he’d be an easy Cy Young candidate.

There are plenty of players around who fit one of these profiles, among them A.J. Burnett, Pat Burrell, Hee Seop Choi, and Jon Garland. Burnett, more than a year removed from Tommy John surgery, fits much the same profile as his teammate Beckett. Burrell has been a good hitter in every year of his career save 2003, and is still only 28. It wouldn’t be surprising to see the Phillies’ outfielder slug .544 this year, as he did in 2002.

The Dodgers’ Choi has been traded twice and jerked in and out of different roles on three teams. Through it all, he’s hit well; last year, at age 25, he put up a batting line of .251 AVG/.370 OBA/.449 SLG. Left alone, he’ll be one of the best hitting first basemen in the league.

For someone really under the radar, look at Garland. He’s been the definition of average since he came up to the big leagues, so much so that the White Sox have him penciled in as a fifth starter. Over the last three years, he’s gone 36-36; adjusted for park, he’s had exactly league-average ERAs in that time. He’s also only 25.

Garland’s low strikeout/walk ratio of 1.5/1 might suggest a Sheets-like breakout isn’t in the offing, but that’s deceptive. He’s a power sinkerballer whose main problem is that he gives up too many home runs, and he could turn into a very special player if he can figure out how to keep the ball down consistently.

The thing to keep in mind is that young players struggle, whether with injuries or ineffectiveness, when they reach the majors. It takes time to figure everything out. If a player is average at a young age, he’ll be a star; if he’s a star at a young age he’ll be a superstar. There are a whole lot more players like Adam Dunn than there are like Albert Pujols in the world, and they’re worth the wait.

POSSIBLE FIRST – TIME ALL – STARS

ERIC CHAVEZ (3B) OAK At age 27, the four-time Gold Glove winner looks poised to make a run at the A.L. MVP award. He hit .276 AVG/.397 OBA/.501 SLG with 29 homers in 2004, and led the A.L. with 95 walks in just 475 at-bats.

JOSE REYES (SS) NYM The oft-injured Met is one of only four post-war shortstops to provide league-average offense before age 22. Slumped to .255 AVG/.271 OBA/.373 SLG in 202 at-bats in 2004, but kept up his superior baserunning (32 SB in 35 career attempts).

JOSH BECKETT (P) FLA The 2003 World Series MVP, who will turn 25 this spring, has thrown only 430 IP in his career due to assorted injuries. His 26-26 lifetime record belies an impressive 3.49 ERA and a 2.7 K/BB ratio.

A.J. BURNETT (P) FLA His career was derailed by arm troubles after a promising 2002 campaign. Coming off Tommy John surgery, he posted a 3.68 ERA and a 3.0 K/BB ratio in 120 IP in 2004.

PAT BURRELL (OF) PHI After hitting .282 with 37 homers in 2002, slumped to .209 and 21 in 2003. Rebounded in 2004 with .257 AVG/.365 OBA/.455 SLG, but missed 30 games with injuries. At 27, it’s time for him to prove himself as an elite hitter.

HEE SEOP CHOI (1B) LA Played well with Florida in 2004 (.270 AVG/.388 OBA/.495 SLG and 15 HR in 281 at-bats), but slumped after joining the Dodgers at the trade deadline.

JON GARLAND (P) CHI With 788 IP before age 25, he has already proven himself as a workhorse. He’s also given up 111 career homers, so he must find a way to keep his sinkerball down. Went 12-11 with a 4.89 ERA and 113 Ks in 217 IP in 2004.