Pitching Matchups Tip Scales Toward Sox

This article is from the archive of The New York Sun before the launch of its new website in 2022. The Sun has neither altered nor updated such articles but will seek to correct any errors, mis-categorizations or other problems introduced during transfer.

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For the past few years, the American League has been much stronger than the National League. One could plausibly argue that a mediocre team like Toronto, winner of 83 this year, is the equal of any team in the senior circuit, whose only 90-win team, Arizona, didn’t even manage to outscore their opponents.

While this imbalance has lamentable consequences for haters of the designated hitter, it also sets up some terrific playoff series. Both the Boston Red Sox and the Los Angeles Angels are an order of magnitude better than any of the teams they might face in the World Series, and this matchup looks like one of those second-round Western conference series that ends up being more meaningful and entertaining than the NBA finals.

LINEUPS One of the reasons this series should deliver is that it offers a true contrast in styles. The Angels are wonderfully old school, and not just because they value contact hitting more than any team in baseball. With shortstop Orlando Cabrera, utility man Chone Figgins, and DH Vladimir Guerrero as the only really stable presences in the lineup lately, Mike Scioscia has employed all sorts of Stengelesque platoons and job sharing arrangements to split up at-bats among hitters who are all about equally good and have different tactical strengths and weaknesses.

The Red Sox’s methods are not eclectic; they bludgeon pitchers with a set lineup consisting of well-rounded hitters and anchored by the monstrous David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez, who looked more or less like himself in the last week of the season after sitting out a month with an injury. Note that this is an unusual Sox offense, as Boston hit just 166 home runs this year, their lowest since 1992 when the AL scored more than a run and a half less per game than it did this year. The Sox hit for good averages and a lot of doubles, which could give them an edge on the Angels, whose outfield is something of a mess defensively due to injuries to Guerrero and Gary Matthews Jr.

STARTING PITCHING Tomorrow’s game could be a classic, as John Lackey, the league’s ERA leader, will take on Josh Beckett, the majors’ only 20-game winner. It could also be a thrashing—Lackey gave up 10 runs in 9.2 innings in Fenway this year and has a 6.27 ERA against Boston in a career that’s been short enough for that to be relevant.

The key matchup comes in the second game, as Kelvim Escobar takes on Daisuke Matsuzaka. Neither was very good in September (Escobar knocked himself out of Cy Young contention with a 7.99 ERA in 23.2 innings), but each man gave his team long stretches of brilliant pitching during the regular season. Matsuzaka is regarded as a mild disappointment because of his 4.40 ERA, but in 204.7 innings he struck out 201, walked 80, and gave up 25 homeruns.

These are very lose to acequality numbers, and like Escobar, Matsuzaka should not be underestimated.

In the third game of the set, October legend Curt Schilling will take on Jered Weaver, brother of famed goat Jeff. This looks like a big advantage for Boston. The team’s big lead allowed them to rest the aged Schilling down the stretch, and Weaver gives up lots of fly balls, perhaps a bad fit against Boston’s doubles power and his team’s mildly sketchy outfield defense.

The new playoff schedule, which stresses the day off, could help decide the series. It’s an advantage for Boson because it allows them to slot knuckleballer Tim Wakefield into the bullpen, meaning that Terry Francona will be able to pull a struggling starter very early without killing either his pen or his odds of victory.

RELIEF AND RESERVES As per usual, the Angels boast a formidable relief corps headed by Francisco Rodriguez, owner of a 2.17 ERA in 29 postseason innings and two playoff losses, both against Boston in the 2004 division series. Much will be made, especially given Ortiz’s looming presence, of the team’s lack of a reliable lefty — former-Met Darren Oliver is the only portsider in the pen. Personally, I like the Angels’ refusal to carry a bad lefty specialist just for the sake of doing so. They lack a killer on the bench, but one of the strengths of Scioscia’s platoon system is that on any given day, his better reserves are every bit as good as his starters. At least in theory, this allows him to play clever matchup games to consistently gain situational advantages.

The Red Sox’s relief is strong, but it’s also what has their fans awake at night. Closer Jonathan Papelbon is nearly untouchable, and while setup man Hideki Okajima ran out of gas down the stretch, Mike Timlin put in a claim on crucial innings by pitching well. What terrifies the team’s partisans is Eric Gagne. Before his 2005 arm operation, Gagne was as good a closer as there has ever been; after coming to Boston in a deadline trade, he looked spent and pitched horribly, with a 6.75 ERA in 20 games. He came into every one of those games in the 8th or 9th inning, and even granting that he looked great over the last two weeks of the season, there probably aren’t too many Sox fans who’d like to see him in the late innings in this series. The team’s bench is not particularly strong aside from outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury, who arguably should be starting over Coco Crisp.

MANAGERS Scioscia is perhaps the best manager in baseball, with a unique approach and philosophy that’s led the Angels to prosperity, a championship, and consistent success. Francona is a very good manager, still a bit touched by the aura of having presided over the greatest comeback in postseason history. Scioscia is a better tactical manager, enough so to offset some of Boston’s talent advantage; Francona can also be supportive of his players to the point where it verges on stubborness. This is an edge to the Angels.

PREDICTION Boston in four. These teams are close overall, but the way the pitching matchups break should give Boston an advantage. If Lackey comes through in Boston tomorrow despite his past struggles there, this will be a very different series.


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