The Eastern Conference playoff race is turning into a nail-biter of epic proportions, with the sixth-place Tampa Bay Lightning separated from the 11th place Montreal Canadiens by only four points. There are less than three weeks remaining in the regular season, and just as in the playoffs, the result of this race will likely come down to momentum and goaltending.

Last season (the NHL’s first with the shootout), the eighth-place Tampa Bay Lightning crept into the postseason with 92 points, while the Toronto Maple Leafs and Atlanta Thrashers (both with 90 points) were on the outside looking in. Assuming that threshold remains the same this season, the Lightning (82 points) would need to finish the season with a 5–4–0 record to reach the postseason, while the Canadiens (78 points) would need to conclude with a far more challenging 7–2–0 record.

In the past few weeks, the Rangers have been by far the hottest team participating in this race. They posted a 6–1–3 record in the 10 games preceding last night’s battle with the Penguins, while the other five clubs in the cluster have essentially performed at a .500 clip. Though it’s possible that all six teams will play .500 hockey over the final few weeks, it’s far more likely that two or three clubs will distance themselves from the pack.

And that brings us to the netminders. It is impossible to succeed in the playoffs without top-tier goaltending, and of these six clubs, the Rangers have shone the brightest of late. Henrik Lundqvist struggled mightily in the first half of the season, but his play picked up considerably in the New Year. Dating back to January 1, Lundqvist has posted a spectacular .927 save percentage and a miserly 1.90 goalsagainst average, turning this into a very impressive sophomore season for the young Swede.

Meanwhile, injuries have robbed three teams of their starters (the Islanders’ Rick DiPietro, the Hurricanes’ Cam Ward, and the Canadiens’ Cristobal Huet) this calendar year, creating significant and predictable tumult. Huet suffered the worst of the injuries; the consequential hamstring surgery ended his regular season, and put the Habs in a serious hole from which they’re still struggling to emerge.

One of the NHL’s top teams in the first half, the Canadiens have posted a disappointing 14–20–1 record dating back to January 1. Backup David Aebischer hasn’t been up to the task of carrying the Habs, and young Jaroslav Halak — though showing signs of great promise — is not yet ready to take the reins. And as a result, the Canadiens are the least likely of these six teams to advance.

DiPietro suffered a head/neck injury in a collision with the Canadiens’ Steve Begin, and the Isles lost that game and the two that followed (with back-up Mike Dunham surrendering 16 goals in the three losses). DiPietro practiced yesterday, and could return as soon as tonight’s critical game against the Lightning. With DiPietro, the Isles are a sleeper Cup contender; without him, they aren’t a playoff team.

But just as injuries can expose a team’s fatal weakness, they can also introduce a surprising strength. Hurricanes backup John Grahame was called into action when 2006 Conn Smythe Trophy winner Cam Ward suffered a freak injury — a deep cut above his left knee — in a game against the Rangers.

Grahame, who is not considered to be one of the NHL’s most reliable netminders under pressure, was essentially run out of Tampa last season by head coach John Tortorella. But playing for Peter Laviolette in Carolina clearly agrees with Grahame, who has posted some very impressive numbers in Ward’s absence (.929 SV%, 1.68 GAA). And as a result, the ‘Canes have been able to exercise extra caution while waiting for Ward to return.

Meanwhile, those Lightning have somehow gotten by despite relying on the suspect tandem of Marc Denis and Rangers castoff Johan Holmqvist — neither player represents much of an improvement over the departed Grahame. The pair’s potent offense is the key to their regular season success, but if they reach the postseason, neither Holmqvist nor Denis is likely to deliver a first-round victory.

Perhaps the biggest wild card of all in this playoff race is former Calder Trophy winner Andrew Raycroft. Toronto is a hockey hotbed of epic proportions, with the Leafs dominating sports-talk radio on a year-round basis. In his first season dealing with that broadcast and press assault, Raycroft hasn’t fared badly, and might well set a Leafs single-season record for wins by a goaltender.

However, his other numbers (.895 SV%, 2.96 GAA) are somewhat underwhelming, and he has a maddening tendency to deliver a clunker of a performance every few games. But if Raycroft goes on a hot streak, as he did in mid-February, he’s got the ability to effect this playoff race in a huge way.

It is abundantly clear that the final three weeks of the regular season will be played with a playofflike atmosphere. Last season, trade deadline acquisition Dwayne Roloson backstopped the eighth-seed Edmonton Oilers to the Cup Finals in a Cinderella story for the ages. This year the drama shifts east, for what promises to be a scintillating finish.

Mr. Greenstein is the editor in chief of InsideHockey.com.