Pronger and Chara Loom Over Free Agent Landscape

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The New York Sun

The NHL’s annual free-agent frenzy begins tonight at midnight, and there is no shortage of high quality players available. The most impactful players participating in this summer’s swap meet are defensemen, which meshes perfectly with the results of the 2005-06 season.

Following the lockout, the league made a number of crucial changes, most notably with regard to finances (the imposition of a salary cap and minimum) and rule enforcement (a severe crackdown on obstruction and interference). The former led to a much smaller gap between the large- and small-market teams’ spending, while the latter brought about a lot more high-speed skating than in the years prior to the lockout. The combination of the two means that teams have to be extremely careful about where they spend their money.

Prior to the lockout, teams were able to succeed with one, or perhaps two, talented scoring lines. But in the 2006 playoffs, it became readily apparent that no fewer than three competent scoring lines were needed, and that four were optimal. The lesson for the summer is that c

The Devils’ Patrik Elias is the most valuable forward available this summer, and the bidding for his services is expected to go extremely high. However, Elias fills only one spot on one forward line, playing a maximum of 25 minutes per night. The maximum allowable salary is 20% of the $44 million cap ($8.8 million), but it’s unlikely that any team will spend that much to acquire him. Elias represents only a twelfth of a team’s forward corps, and spending any more than $6 million on him for a multiyear deal would necessarily create serious cap problems – if not in 2006-07, then down the road.

Based upon that argument, it would seem that goaltender is the most important position; after all, the starting goalie generally plays the entire game. But two interesting factors have derailed what would have otherwise been an obvious conclusion.

For one, there are very few goaltenders who are universally considered to be “money in the bank.” The Devils’ Martin Brodeur, Calgary’s Miikka Kiprusoff, and Vancouver’s Roberto Luongo (who signed a $27 million, four-year deal with the Canucks yesterday) are the only netminders in the NHL who were great before the lockout and remain great. Luongo, though he has perennially been one of the finest regular season goalies, has not played a single playoff game. If he turns out to be a playoff dud as did the Dallas’s Marty Turco, then we are left with Brodeur and Kiprusoff alone.

The other factor, perhaps even more important, is the quality of the goalies available this summer, or rather, the lack thereof. Carolina’s Martin Gerber is widely considered to be the best of the bunch, but his struggles in the first round of the playoffs paved the way for eventual Conn Smythe Trophy winner Cam Ward’s emergence. And Dwayne Roloson, who backstopped the Edmonton Oilers to the Cup Finals before going down with a knee injury, turns 37 on October 12th and has been a journeyman for most of his career.

So in order for teams to reverse their fortunes via this summer’s free-agent market, there is really only one place to turn: the blue line. The Oilers and the Anaheim Ducks reached the Western Conference Finals largely on the strengths of their no. 1 defensemen – Chris Pronger for Edmonton and Scott Niedermayer for Anaheim – and it is a good blueprint to follow. Pronger and Niedermayer both logged approximately 30 minutes per night of All-Star caliber ice time throughout the regular season and playoffs, and were key components of the power play and penaltykilling units.

The biggest (literally) free agent blueliner available is Ottawa’s Zdeno Chara. At 6-foot-9 and 261 pounds, he will give whichever team signs him an immediate, intimidating physical presence. Over the course of the past five years, the former Islanders draft pick has evolved his game dramatically, improving his skating and puck-moving skills to the point where he is now among the game’s most complete players. All three local teams are in serious need of a no. 1 defenseman, and are expected to participate in the Chara sweepstakes.

Vancouver Canucks star Ed Jovanovski is a riskier proposition, but he will also generate tremendous interest this summer. A great skater and a hard hitter, Jovanovski boasts all the tools to become a perennial Norris Trophy candidate. However, his hockey sense isn’t quite to the level of his physical gifts, and he has been a bit injury prone over the past few seasons.If “Jovo-Cop”doesn’t re-sign with the Canucks, the Florida Panthers – the team for which he began his career – are the most likely candidates to nab him.

Norris Trophy winner Nicklas Lidstrom of the Detroit Red Wings and the Colorado Avalanche’s Rob Blake are also available this summer, but both are reportedly close to deals to return to their current teams for at least another season. If Lidstrom decides to test the market, it will be interesting to see whether teams are willing to commit to a long-term contract with a 36-year-old blueliner, even one with Lidstrom’s pedigree.

Though he’s not an unrestricted free agent, Pronger is actually available on the open market this summer as well. Following the Oilers’ Cup Finals loss, it became public knowledge that he requested a trade,so Edmonton GM Kevin Lowe has begun the process of seeking suitors. But if a deal is not consummated bytonight,look for Lowe to lie in wait until the free agent frenzy has taken its course. When that game of musical chairs is over, the teams left wanting will all go directly to Lowe. Needless to say, he’ll then be able to command a very steep price for Pronger, arguably the league’s most valuable player over the course of the entire 2005-06 regular season and playoffs.

Mr. Greenstein is the ditor in chief of InsideHockey.com.


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