If you wanted to characterize this year’s free-agent market in one word, it would be “risk.” While the market features many solid veterans like Steve Finley, Jeff Kent, and Brad Radke, all of whom can be more or less penciled in for their usual statistics for another year or two, the big prizes are all surrounded by legitimate questions concerning their age, health, and/or performance.

This makes it almost certain that some team will damage itself for a substantial period of time with a poor signing, as the Yankees did when they inked Jason Giambi in 2001. Yet it also provides the opportunity for shrewd teams to get some great players at bargain prices, as the Angels did with Vladimir Guerrero last year.

To make a slight generalization, the players considered the elite in this market are those most likely to bomb, while those considered the riskiest are least likely to do so. This is an inversion of the general principle that you get what you pay for with free-agent signings, but there is an unusual set of players up for bid this year.

At the apex of the market is Carlos Beltran, who is coming off a spectacular postseason with Houston. After establishing himself as one of the most well-rounded players in the game during his years in Kansas City, the center fielder is rumored to be seeking a contract paying from $16-$20 million per year for five to 10 years, with the former figure going down as the latter goes up. Any team that signs such a contract, overpaying for Beltran at the absolute peak of his value, would be spectacularly stupid.

Beltran is a fine, fine player, but not a superstar. As a hitter, he’s a known quantity – very good, especially for a premium defensive position, but not someone who will contend for an MVP award based on his offense. If he were a Gold Glove defender, he would be among the very best players in the game. He’s not, though: There is no defensive system of which I’m aware that rates him very far above the average, which is not a problem now but will be at the end of a long-term contract.

Beltran should be compared to Bernie Williams at a similar point in his career. An exceptionally good player, but not among the game’s elite, Beltran is likely to be a defensive liability in a few years and too weak a hitter to be a serious asset at a corner position. Given the scarcity of quality centerfielders these days, a five-year, $70 million contract for Beltran would be perfectly reasonable. He’ll get a lot more, in money and years, than that.

Right below Beltran in desirability are several players whose futures are uncertain. Adrian Beltre hit 48 home runs and played Gold Glove defense at third base at the age of 25 this year, and he’s about to become very, very rich. While this season probably wasn’t a fluke, any team signing Beltre should recognize that he is unlikely to reach this level again.

No player at this level of the market has a bigger upside or a worse downside than Beltre – paying Scott Rolen money for Shea Hillenbrand production is a real risk. I think he’ll be closer to Rolen, but no one’s asking me to pay him nine figures over the next several years.

At least Beltre is a desirable player; the question about him is how much he’s worth. It’s inexplicable to me that Jason Varitek, Carl Pavano, and J.D. Drew are generally thought of as elite free agents. I wouldn’t sign any of them for more than a year or two at any price.

At 33, Varitek is reaching the age when catchers invariably break down. Pavano is coming off a career year in which he posted a 3.00 ERA in a great pitcher’s park while striking out an unexceptional 5.63 per nine innings. Drew is a tremendous player who, no matter how healthy he was this year, can’t be counted on for more than 400 at-bats a season. Pavano, 28, and Drew, 29, both have substantial upside, but they, like Varitek, are likely to be paid out of all proportion to their true value.

While people seem to be looking at the above-mentioned players and seeing nothing but the good, there is a whole class of superior players in whom people see nothing but flaws. These are the real bargains this winter.

Pre-eminent among these is Pedro Martinez. There’s an argument that the Red Sox ace is the best pitcher to ever live. He’s coming off the worst season of his career, but he was still ninth in the league in ERA, second in strikeouts, fourth in base runners allowed per game, and pitched more innings than he had since 2000. He’s worth whatever he wants, so long as he doesn’t ask for a deal longer than three years.

Next is Carlos Delgado. He has been one of the very best hitters in baseball since 1996, has produced two seasons worthy of an MVP award, and he’s only 32. This year, injuries limited him to 128 games, yet he was still among the best first basemen in the league. He’s unlikely to repeat his great 2003 season, and like Martinez, I wouldn’t sign him for more than three years, but whatever team acquires him can pencil him in for a .900 OPS and move on to the next item on the agenda.

As with Delgado, injuries have put a damper on the value of Troy Glaus and Nomar Garciaparra. Smart teams will exploit this. Glaus missed large parts of the last two years due to a shoulder injury; had he missed all of 2003, and played this year healthy, he’d be seen for what he is, a 28-year-old walks-and-power slugger who may not play third base again but will be a real asset as a no. 5 hitter.

The questions around Garciaparra have to do with durability and defense, though neither should overshadow his offensive performance. His injuries aren’t chronic, and his bat would make him a credible DH or first baseman. Neither Nomar nor Glaus is a franchise player, but why either is considered a risk while talk of a multi-year contract surrounds Drew is utterly bewildering.

In between these overvalued and undervalued players, there is a sizable group of players like Radke, Kent, Finley, Matt Clement, Moises Alou, and Odalis Perez who seem to be valued at their true worth. Of course, given the absurd contracts already handed out to players like Omar Vizquel and Cristian Guzman, we may yet see a 3-year, $30 million contract forked over to someone like Alou.

If these circumstances materialize, the wise GM will pass; with the possible exceptions of Martinez and Beltre, there’s no one out there worth overpaying. Of course, that doesn’t mean that no one will, but before you root for your team to sign someone like J.D.Drew, you might remember Jason Giambi and what can happen when a GM has money burning a hole in his pocket.