A-Rod’s Quiet Greatness
This article is from the archive of The New York Sun before the launch of its new website in 2022. The Sun has neither altered nor updated such articles but will seek to correct any errors, mis-categorizations or other problems introduced during transfer.
I think most fans would agree that Alex Rodriguez’s first year in the Bronx has been something of a disappointment. The play of the reigning MVP has been steady, workmanlike, and wholly unspectacular.
Most observers, if asked, would point to Gary Sheffield as the Yankees’ best player. Some would point to Derek Jeter; I might agree with them if we were for some reason deciding to count only June and September.
The burden of expectations can be harsh, and it has been harsher for Rodriguez than for any other player in recent memory. With his $25 million salary and three consecutive home run crowns, he was expected by Yankees fans to do things they’d never seen before, and to dominate the game.
A-Rod hasn’t done that, and this year has clearly been his worst since 1997. Still, he has probably been the Yankees’ best player, which is a rather astonishing testament to how great a player he really is.
Sheffield, of course, has had a tremendous season at the plate. But the argument that he has been by far and away the Yankees’ best player doesn’t really hold.
According to Bill James’s sensibly named Runs Created formula, which might be thought of as the counting-stat equivalent of OPS with base running accounted for as well, both Sheffield and Rodriguez had created 114 runs entering last night’s game. Sheffield had done so using 349 outs, a rate of .327 runs per out, while Rodriguez had done so using 368 outs, a rate of .310. These rates placed them, respectively, at 8th and 12th in the American League.
While the James formula doesn’t take into account Sheffield’s much better performance in the clutch – his 1.003 OPS with runners in scoring position is much better than Rodriguez’s .786 – it does point out what similar offensive seasons the two have had. Besides their hitting with runners in scoring position, the main differences between the two are that Sheffield has walked 10 more times, while Rodriguez has quietly stolen 26 bases while being caught only four times. Because Rodriguez has played a bit more, stolen more bases, and is a bit less likely to ground into the double play, he’s actually contributed as much to the offense as Sheffield has, despite Sheffield’s advantages in on-base average, slugging percentage, and other important statistics.
The advantage in the clutch for Sheffield should not be underestimated, but it’s difficult to know just how much weight to assign it. My best guess, based on the Runs Created formula, is that the difference is around 10 runs. That’s substantial, but to make the argument for Sheffield being better than Rodriguez, you’d have to show that his advantage in the clutch is worth 15 runs. That is, conservatively, the difference between their defensive values.
Though I don’t consider any of the defensive evaluation systems that are available in-season to be particularly reliable, the best is analyst Mitchell Lichtman’s UZR. This system is based on play-by-play data over a period of years, with more weight being given to more recent performance. Coming into this season, the system showed a difference of 19 runs per 162 games between Sheffield and Rodriguez.
While you have to reduce that gap to account for Rodriguez’s move off of shortstop, I don’t think anyone who spends much time watching the Yankees would dispute that A-Rod is a very good defender while Sheffield is not. It would be difficult to argue that the difference between a very good third baseman and a mediocre corner outfielder is worth less than 10 runs.
The numbers, then, show that Rodriguez has been, at worst, about as good as Sheffield this year, and quite possibly better because he makes up the small gap in hitting with broader contributions on the bases and in the field. (Jeter’s defensive renaissance, for instance, has a great deal to do with the amount of ground that Rodriguez covers, which allows the shortstop to concentrate on going to his left.)
Sheffield, though, is considered an MVP favorite, while Rodriguez is seen as something between a disappointment and an outright failure. This isn’t fair, although it is understandable. The biggest factor, I think, is a widespread inability to understand just how good a hitter’s park Rodriguez’s old haunt, the Ballpark in Arlington, is. It inflates run scoring by about 23%, while Yankee Stadium cuts it by about 8%. Much of the drop in Rodriguez’s numbers is explained by this alone.
More crucially, though, Rodriguez is an incredibly boring player when watched day in and day out. There’s nothing at all idiosyncratic or dramatic about any facet of his game. In everything he does on the field – his batting stance, his approach to pitchers, his base running, his fielding – he is technically perfect, rather than graceful. This is laudable in its way, but it’s unsurprising that fans, expecting a transcendent player to visibly play like one, or at least to have a personality, have been under whelmed.
Unlikely a thing as it is to say, there’s nothing much glamorous about the play of the $250 million man. He won’t hit .370, walk 200 times, or hit 70 home runs; he won’t concuss himself diving into the stands for a foul ball. He is, though, one of the five or so best there is in the world at literally everything you can do on a baseball field, and he does it all with mechanical ease.
A-Rod isn’t paid to play with flair, he’s paid to play ball; and in a season where he’s struggled as badly as he has in seven years, he’s one of the two best players on the best team in the league.
What more could anyone possibly want?