The Mets, for those who haven’t noticed, could use a second baseman. Kaz Matsui, Miguel Cairo, Marlon Anderson, and Chris Woodward have between them given their team the least production from the keystone in the National League. Mets second basemen rank last in the league in runs, home runs, total bases, RBI, on-base average, and OPS, and on top of that, the defense from the position has been nothing spectacular. There’s a reasonable argument to be made that a good second baseman is all that’s standing between the Mets and the wild-card lead.

The good news is that a fine second baseman is on the market. The Texas Rangers’ record is only two games worse than the Mets’, and they’re no further away from a playoff spot. But with ace Kenny Rogers set to serve a 20-game suspension following a stretch of games in which they’ve gone 2-8,Texas is thinking it might be time to play for next year, and thus thinking about what Alfonso Soriano might fetch on the market. The Rangers-Mets fit seems natural, and the fact that the rumors of trade discussions might even be true makes things all the better.

Soriano is an attractive player, as New York baseball fans well know. He leads all second basemen in runs, RBI, and home runs – the latter by a huge margin; his combination of power, speed, and ability to hit for average have made him one of the game’s signature players over the last few years. Everyone is aware of his flaws – a curious lack of range in the field that seems more tied to a short attention span or lack of preparation than any lack of ability, and a frustrating unwillingness to learn the strike zone. But on the whole, his dynamism and explosiveness make Soriano one of the most exciting and productive players in the game.

Such, anyway, is the usual take on Soriano. Those who think the Mets should give up the farm for him argue that his power makes up for his flaws; those who don’t want him generally argue that his unwillingness to take a walk (or at least refrain from swinging at balls pitched over his head) and his poor glove work do too much to offset his power for him to be worth several top prospects.

The problem, actually, is more basic: There’s not much reason to think he’s a very good hitter.

For the last two years, Soriano has played his home games in Ameriquest Field, which routinely inflates offense by around 20% as compared to a neutral park.

Last year, he hit .317 BA/.360 OBA/.526 SLG at home, and .244/.291/.444 on the road. This year, the difference is even more staggering, as he’s hit .322/.353/.678 in Dallas and .237/.274/.398 elsewhere. Essentially, he’s Albert Pujols at home and Rey Ordonez on the road.

Hitters who play in extreme hitter’s parks tend to put up relatively poor road numbers, and the Rangers play a disproportionate number of road games in fine pitcher’s parks in Seattle and Oakland, but Soriano has more in common with Coors Field illusions like Dante Bichette than he does with Rogers Hornsby.

The simplest explanation here is also the most likely. While Soriano was an extraordinary player earlier in his career, the league adjusted to him and he never readjusted, as vividly evidenced by the fact that he was benched in the 2003 World Series for his inability to lay off high fastballs and breaking balls on the outer half of the plate.

A move to a great hitter’s park has masked that fact, but he’d be exposed in a more unforgiving environment. A more basic problem for the Mets is that Soriano’s offense is almost entirely based on home runs that he won’t hit at Shea.

Of his 25 longballs this year, 18 have come at home. Shea Stadium is a brutal park for right-handed power hitters, cutting down on home runs by around 25%.Take someone who doesn’t walk and put him in a park that not only takes his main skill away from him but will also cut down his batting average, and what do you have? Certainly not a star, and certainly not anyone worth paying the $8 to $10 million Soriano will make in arbitration next year – and this is leaving aside his indifferent defense.

Essentially, Soriano would be another Jose Reyes, but without the enormous potential for improvement that makes playing Reyes a worthy investment in the team’s future.

Soriano isn’t a bad player, and he would represent a big improvement on what the Mets now have, but between his flaws, the fact that Shea would exacerbate them more than any other park in the majors, and his huge salary, he isn’t worth premium prospects. If the Mets must have him, it wouldn’t be a bad idea to trade the likes of Aaron Heilman or Jae Seo – good, but replaceable players – along with some second-tier minor leaguers. As is, it doesn’t seem like that will be enough to get a deal done, and if it isn’t, the Mets should pass.

There are, anyway, better fits out there. San Francisco has fallen out of the race, and might be looking to move Ray Durham. His .378 OBA is 45 points higher than Soriano’s, his line drive stroke is a better fit for Shea, he wouldn’t cost nearly so much as Soriano in terms of prospects, and his contract is up after this year, with a $7.2 million team option for 2006. Acquiring him may not be as exciting as acquiring Soriano, and he may not be as big a name, but he’d help the team win every bit as much without costing prospects that can help the team win next year and for years to come.

Mets General Manager Omar Minaya will have some tough calls to make this weekend as the deadline approaches; this shouldn’t be one of them.