On May 24, the Philadelphia Phillies’ bullpen, as it has often done this season, blew a lead against the Florida Marlins, wasting seven innings of two-hit, no-run ball by ace Brett Myers. The loss dropped the team to 21-26 on the season, 7 1/2 games behind the Marlins in the standings. Considering their bad habits, it seemed the Phillies would have a difficult time winning 86 games, as they have in three of the last four years – an enormous disappointment for a team that looked, once again, like the best team in the league on paper.

As if to disprove the quickly gathering consensus that the team’s failures had not been the fault of former manager Larry Bowa, the team quickly awoke from its coma. Going into last night’s game against the Mariners, they were one game out of first, 2 1/2 games up on the Marlins. The Phillies have gone 15-2 since that meltdown in Miami, and they’re hardly beating up on patsies. During the stretch, they’ve taken series from strong teams – the Braves, Diamondbacks, and Rangers – and won games started by some of the league’s best pitchers, like Javier Vazquez, Ben Sheets, and John Smoltz. Barring catastrophe, the Phillies should be in the race all the way to the end.

This shouldn’t really surprise anyone. The Phillies were favorites entering the season for the good reason that they have as much talent as any team in baseball. For once, they’re playing like it.

The key to the season, and to their dominant run of late, has been the positional talent they’ve been accumulating for years. Bobby Abreu – who has quietly played All-Star caliber baseball for the better part of a decade – is having an MVP caliber season, batting .323 AVG/.440 OBA/.586 SLG. Left fielder Pat Burrell is finally living up to the potential that made him the first overall pick in the 1998 draft, batting .329/.419/.580. Burrell hasn’t had a hitless game in June, and along with Florida’s Miguel Cabrera, he’s been the best left fielder in the league. First baseman Jim Thome was ineffective due to a bad back during the first two months, but in June he’s been more or less his usual self, hitting three home runs and drawing nine walks in 34 at-bats.

Past their stars, the Phillies feature unreal depth. The centerfielders – primarily Kenny Lofton and Jason Michaels – have combined to hit .323/.415/.435; only the Cardinals have enjoyed more production from the position. The second-base platoon of Chase Utley and Placido Polanco, who was traded to Detroit last week, has hit .317/.392/.496 – easily the best in the league. Include reasonable hitting from catcher Mike Lieberthal and shortstop Jimmy Rollins, and the Phillies finally have the lineup they’re paying for – one with an absolutely devastating heart of the order and no weak points save for third baseman David Bell.

If one thing should worry the team’s rivals, it’s that no Phillies other than Lofton have been hitting much above their heads. The key is that every hitter has been hitting at the same time, and given the talent on this team, there’s no real reason to think they can’t keep that up. Players like Utley and Michaels may not have big names, but their fine performances as role players in recent years suggest that they actually are this good.

They team will have to keep up the hitting, because the pitching is thin. That’s a problem, because this staff was built around the idea that an offense this good just needs five starters who can keep them in the game and a strong back end of the bullpen. With Vicente Padilla sporting a 6.43 ERA, Randy Wolf looking like he’ll need Tommy John surgery, and Cory Lidle unlikely to keep up a 4.18 ERA, this staff is too dependent on former Yankee Jon Lieber (8-4, 4.61 ERA) and 24-year-old Myers, who has quietly been one of the true breakout stars of the year. His 5-3 record belies a 2.24 ERA and the second-most strikeouts in the league behind Pedro Martinez; he’s given up as many as four runs in a game just twice all year.

The Phillies could conceivably turn to dominant reliever Ryan Madson and prospect Gavin Floyd to fill gaps in the rotation, but moving Madson, who boasts a 7/1 strikeout-to-walk ratio this year, would weaken an already sketchy pen. Floyd, meanwhile, struck out four and walked 12 while allowing 22 runs in four games in April. If Ugueth Urbina – acquired in the Polanco trade – can help stabilize the bullpen, that would make manager Charlie Manuel’s life a bit easier, but veteran relievers are utterly unpredictable. Urbina could throw 40 scoreless innings, allowing Madson to transition into the rotation; he could just as easily run up a 6.00+ ERA and wind up pitching only in blowouts.

All told, I don’t see this team winning the division. In theory, they resemble the Cardinals teams of the last few years, with a strong core of offensive talent and a supporting cast notable for its lack of really bad players, but there are a few differences. The Cardinals may not have a dominant rotation, but they keep their pitchers healthy and effective. And Thome’s back problems are far worse than anything the Cardinals’ star hitters have dealt with during their run. Without him, the Phillies may not have enough to overcome their pitching problems and overtake four other good teams. A wild-card slot is possible, but my money is on the Cubs, Diamondbacks, or Dodgers grabbing it while the teams in the East beat one another up.

The main problem here is rotation depth, but the Phillies do have young, live arms on hand, and that counts for a lot. Myers, who had a 5.52 ERA last year, is a fine example of how a good young pitcher can suddenly put it all together. Should Floyd do the same, and should Thome stay healthy, the Phillies will be slight favorites in the division. But with every team over .500, they can’t afford for much to go wrong.