Streaking Mets Now Have the Luxury of Planning Ahead

This article is from the archive of The New York Sun before the launch of its new website in 2022. The Sun has neither altered nor updated such articles but will seek to correct any errors, mis-categorizations or other problems introduced during transfer.

The New York Sun

Entering last night’s tilt against the Phillies, in which the Mets jumped out to an early lead for the seventh straight game, the Amazins were not only the hottest they’d been offensively since 1990 (that was the last time they scored as many as 55 runs in a six-game stretch), but had a lead in the NL East larger than the combined leads enjoyed by every other first-place team in baseball.

Tuesday’s win seems to have changed the general opinion of the team; what was just last week a sense of quiet optimism is now a sense of disbelief at how ruthlessly they’ve seized command of the league, increasing their lead by four whole games in just a week. Given the quality of the team and of the competition, a failure to make the postseason would probably count as a historic collapse – statistically, according to the playoff odds at baseballprospectus.com, the Mets have a 95% chance of playing in October. (The Texas Rangers are next best at 63%.)

This is so especially because one of the biggest factors in their racking up a huge lead – the shoddy state of play in the National League – is going to be the gift that keeps on giving. Starting Monday, the Mets are going to begin a brutal two-week stretch during which they’ll play the Cincinnati Reds, the Blue Jays (who might right now be the best team in the AL East), the Red Sox, and finally the Yankees.

That’s more or less it for quality competition for the rest of the year. There’s a set with the Reds at the end of July, six games with the Phillies and three more with the Cardinals in August, and a four game stand with the Dodgers in September – and that’s it for teams you could classify right now as good. The Braves or Astros might look tougher in September than they do now, but I’d expect the Mets to be able to limit Pedro Martinez and Tom Glavine to five innings a game down the stretch if they decide to do so.

One of the benefits of Willie Randolph’s long experience with the Yankees is that he should have a solid idea of how to get his regulars the rest they’ll need to prepare for the rigors of October baseball while keeping them sharp. That’s something to worry about in a couple of months, though; for now, the Mets’ brilliant play has changed the landscape for the team’s management in a couple of ways.

First, the holes on the team don’t really look so big right now. Alay Soler has shown enough that the no. 4 slot in the rotation doesn’t look like such a problem anymore, while Orlando Hernandez is doing fine behind him and John Maine has returned to health, giving the team a good option in the minors. Considering that Mike Pelfrey, a prospect who doesn’t even have a major league-caliber secondary pitch, was being talked up as a possible call-up not a month ago, that’s a big change.

Similarly, while second base recently looked like a hole that had to be filled at any reasonable cost, Omar Minaya can now point to the standings when talking to potential trade partners and reasonably say he has no pressing need to fulfill silly demands. Leverage is one of the many benefits of being in first place by a mile.

Another effect could be felt in the outfield. Without such a sizable lead, there would be some real temptation to put Xavier Nady back in the lineup when he returns from injury. As is, the Mets have a huge lead and Lastings Milledge is playing about as well as one could hope. Aside from not wanting to mess with something that’s working, it would probably be for the best if Nady were on the bench. He’d be the biggest threat among an already deep corps of pinch-hitters,and Randolph could get a good sense of how he plays as a reserve, thus gaining some valuable clues as to how best to take advantage of his skills in the playoffs.

Finally, Randolph should be able to avoid one of the mistakes he saw Joe Torre make through the years – burning through the bullpen in summer. There’s no reason not to press Aaron Heilman, Duaner Sanchez, and Billy Wagner to their limits during the upcoming two-week stretch against a group of top teams, but after that, Randolph and pitching coach Rick Peterson should be able to ease back a bit, knowing that every game isn’t life or death and that in the bigger picture, keeping these three strong for the playoffs could be the most important thing they have to do.

There’s time for a lot to go wrong, and it’s hardly time to start printing playoff tickets. But the Mets have an opportunity right now they haven’t had in 20 years. Here’s hoping they take full advantage of it in the weeks to come.

tmarchman@nysun.com


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