One of the best stories in baseball right now is the surprise ascent of the Washington Nationals to the top of the National League East, a division that has proved to be even more competitive than expected. Still owned by Major League Baseball, still denied the resources normally required to put a winning team on the field, the former Montreal Expos have won seven games in a row, and their 34-26 record gives them a 1 1/2-game lead on the second-place Phillies.

Some might write off the Nationals’ success as luck; after all, they have been outscored 246-242 thus far, which suggests they should have a .500 record. Oddly enough, though, despite this seemingly incontrovertible evidence that they’re playing over their heads, their record isn’t a fluke. I expect them to stay in the pennant race all summer.

The Nationals’ runs scored and allowed tallies certainly don’t tell the whole story. The team’s pitching staff ranks ninth in the National League with a 3.95 ERA, but that number is artificially inflated by six horrible appearances by two scrub relievers. Antonio Osuna posted a 42.43 ERA in four games before undergoing shoulder surgery, and Joe Horgan ran up a 21.00 ERA in eight games before being sent to the minors. Without the runs given up in these six appearances, the team ERA goes down to 3.58, which would rank right behind Florida’s 3.55 as the best in the league. The team’s run differential would be 242-206, which would suggest a 32-27 record, only a game off their actual one.

This isn’t really fair, of course – every team has a few bad innings you could throw out to make their ERA look better – but then Osuna and Horgan can’t be held accountable for a single Nats loss. Neither pitcher blew up in a game where he was asked to protect a lead, and with the exception of one game where Osuna came in with the team down by three runs, neither came in with the team down by less than four. These were garbage innings, in which the team was going to lose whether their 11th and 12th pitchers gave up one run or 10, and neither man has thrown a pitch for the Nationals since April 23.

So, if they’re not lucky, how exactly are they doing it? There’s no secret. They have top-quality frontline talent and a good manager.

The key to the team’s success thus far has been the starting pitching. Ace Livan Hernandez (3.45 ERA) and no. 2 starter Esteban Loaiza (3.48) have been very effective and very durable. Hernandez is on pace to pitch 250 innings, Loaiza 235; between them, they account for 33.6% of the team’s innings. For a team with an iffy back of the rotation and a somewhat thin bullpen, having two workhorses soaking up that many innings is huge. That longtime prospect John Patterson (2.70) and reliable veteran Tomo Ohka (3.33) have also done well in the nine starts each of them has made is a bonus.

Just as manager Frank Robinson has been able to coax huge workloads out of his best starters while using a light hand with his less dependable ones, he’s ridden his best relievers hard while mixing and matching with the rest. Luis Ayala (2.60 ERA), Chad Cordero (1.24), and Gary Majewski (2.05) might not be marquee names, but all have histories as effective relievers, and they have averaged 30 innings each, while no other Nats reliever has as many as 20.

While it seems to be mere common sense, Robinson’s willingness to put the ball into the hands of his best pitchers and take it away from his lesser ones distinguishes him from many of his peers. It’s also a key factor in the team’s success.

Robinson’s willingness to take the ball out of a pitcher’s hands became a source of controversy last week when he pulled Ohka from a game in the fourth inning even though he’d given up only two runs. Robinson’s explanation was simple: Ohka was in too many jams. When the pitcher turned his back on Robinson and refused to give him the ball, he was promptly fined and it was made clear that he wasn’t to disrespect the manager.

Again, this seems like common sense, but there are plenty of teams that allow similar problems to fester. In Washington, it’s clear that the great Robinson is in charge and must be respected, which is probably a big part of why he gets away with unconventional moves like batting the slow-footed Brad Wilkerson atop the lineup, where his ability to get on base (his career OBA is .369) can key the team’s attack.

Aside from the pitching and the manager, this team has one other big strength, a strong offensive core. Wilkerson, outfielder Jose Guillen, and (when he’s healthy) second baseman Jose Vidro are all good supporting players, but what’s driving the offense is former Yankee first baseman Nick Johnson, who is finally healthy and quietly having the kind of monster year everybody knew he would if he could only avoid injuries. His .343 AVG/.457 OBA/.554 SLG line is like something out of Frank Thomas’ prime, and it’s no wonder the team is scoring runs with a hitter like that in the middle of the lineup.

The Nationals aren’t a deep team, and they probably don’t have the resources to make key trades. That gives them a slim margin for error. Still, in a division where, remarkably, every team is above .500, they have what it will take to win: star players and smart management that hides their weaknesses. Much like their neighbors in Baltimore, this team isn’t going away.