Ever since interleague play began in 1997, New York’s annual Subway Series has been an excellent barometer of the Mets’ place in the baseball world.

In 1997 and 1998, when they were a good team on the rise, the Mets lost to the Yankees decisively. In 1999 and 2000, when they actually won more games than the Yankees during the regular season, they were always just good enough to lose to their rivals.

In 2001 and 2002, when they were mediocre, they couldn’t find a way to win. In 2003, when they’d become downright bad, they endured a humiliating six-game sweep. Then came last year, when their 4-2 Subway Series victory ended up as the worst defeat of all: The Mets brass became so intoxicated with having finally triumphed over the hated Yankees that they pulled off two of the worst trades in recent memory – the deals for starters Victor Zambrano and Kris Benson – in a foolish attempt to chase the wild card. Never mind that the Mets entered that series at 35-36, while the Yankees came in at 42-25.

This year’s Mets team is an actual wild-card contender, and enters the Subway Series tonight not only with a better record than the Yankees, but arguably as a better team. Carlos Beltran has hit far below expectations, David Wright is the only infielder making a noticeable contribution to the offense, and Mike Cameron missed nearly a quarter of the season – and yet the Mets have scored 193 runs, more than any other team in the NL East.

On the other side of the ball, Pedro Martinez has been the only reliable starter, and manager Willie Randolph is still sorting out his options in the bullpen. Still, the Mets find themselves only two games behind division-leading Atlanta, albeit in fourth place.

Playing the Yankees, who, for all their notable flaws, remain an exceptionally dangerous team and one as hot as any in the game, will certainly serve as a good indication of whether the Mets are as good as they seem. More important in the long term, though, will be the performance of four men: Randolph, Beltran, Wright, and shortstop Jose Reyes. The Subway Series is as close to a playoff atmosphere as you can get in the regular season, and how these four do will tell us a great deal about the Mets’ chances over the next few years.

By this, I don’t mean that they need to be tested in the cauldron of New York. Randolph, as a player and coach, has participated in 11 World Series. Beltran nearly drove the Astros to the pennant last October by hitting eight home runs in 46 at-bats.

Wright’s surreal performance since being called up at age 21 – while top prospects his age are still in Double-A, he’s put up an .870 OPS in the majors – should answer any questions about his response to pressure. The same is true, though less so, of Reyes, who has been a league-average shortstop at an age when good players are usually in Single-A leagues.

If Randolph manages the Mets into the ground this weekend and the team’s three core young position players hit for a combined .057, it’s not going to be anything to worry about for the long term. These are important games, though, because they’re an opportunity for these four to prepare for roles they’ll need to assume if the Mets are to grow into the dominant team they have a real chance at becoming.

Beltran has thus far been given a free pass by fans and the press for play that, while fine, has not been at the level expected of him. This is a chance for him to show again on a very bright stage how he can dominate a game in the field, on the basepaths, and at the plate. If he gets hot, he can carry this team to a division title.

Wright and Reyes have a bit more to learn. They haven’t played in meaningful major league games at all, let alone in October, and this will be a learning experience for them. Will they be able to concentrate on every at-bat and every play? Can they execute defensive plays or particular hitting tactics under great pressure? If they can’t, it will probably come with time. But if they can, it will be very encouraging both for the team and its fans.

The one with most to learn is Randolph. I say that not as a slight – his record in the game speaks for itself. I say it because he’s shown so far that he has the potential to become not just a good manager, but an extraordinary one. A number of potentially tricky situations, like the benching of rookie outfielder Victor Diaz and the de-emphasizing of Mike Piazza’s offensive role, have been handled with a quiet and reasonable calm most unusual in Flushing. One only has to think of the circus that was last season to remember how poor handling of these kinds of situations can destroy a season.

Randolph has also given fair shots to all the starting pitchers and relievers and, so far at least, made his decisions based on performance, not reputation. His in-game management has been conservative in many ways, particularly in his admirable willingness to let his best relievers pitch rather than always chase platoon matchups, his reluctance to run the Mets out of innings even with fine base stealers like Beltran on hand, and his establishment of clear roles and expectations for players like Reyes.

Randolph’s pattern of giving his regulars frequent days off to keep both them and bench players like Chris Woodward sharp is also wise and prudent – not many managers would have had the restraint to rest Cliff Floyd in the middle of a 20-game hitting streak, but Randolph did it and Floyd didn’t make a peep.

Nothing he’s done has been flashy, but his policies and tactics have been consistently geared toward getting the most out of his talent and toward establishing that he, not veteran players, is in control of the team. Those are not small things, especially on a team with such an anarchic recent history.

None of this has been commented on very much, which is a good thing. The story of the Mets so far this year is the story of all the dogs that haven’t barked, which is the best possible sign for Randolph’s future.

To be a really great manager, though, Randolph will need to learn how to win big games. This isn’t some mystical power – it’s worth remembering that Joe Torre was considered a mediocre washout, not a clutch genius, when he was hired by the Yankees 10 years ago.

Instead, it’s a matter of knowledge and instinct, communicating with players, delegating authority to coaches, exuding calm, and not losing yourself in big situations. And perhaps most of all, it’s a matter of experience as a manager, which is the one thing Randolph doesn’t have – yet. After the Subway Series, he’ll be that much closer.