To Start or Relieve, That Is the Question

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You’re Terry Ryan, general manager of the Minnesota Twins. Coming into the season, you knew your offense would be a bit weak, as it’s tended to be in recent seasons, but you also knew your pitching would be excellent, maybe the best in the league. You figured you’d be in the race for the AL Central with the White Sox and the Indians, and that between a few young players like Justin Morneau and Jason Kubel and some trade possibilities out there, solutions to your offensive woes would present themselves.

But things haven’t quite worked out. When you woke up yesterday, your team was 11-16, eight games out and behind not just the White Sox and Indians, but also the Tigers, who just might be the class of the division.The offense has been worse than you anticipated, maybe the worst in the league other than the Royals’. Morneau, Torii Hunter, and Rondell White – the heart of your order – are hitting .181 with 17 extra-base hits.

The problem, though, is the pitching. The bullpen has been fine, better than fine, even; Ace Johan Santana hasn’t quite been himself, but he’s the best pitcher in the league, and you’re not worried about him; and rookie starter Scott Baker has been creditable. The rest of the rotation,though,has been beyond horrible. Brad Radke, Carlos Silva, and Kyle Lohse, who threw 3.88 ERA ball for 567 2 /3 innings last year, have run up a 8.73 ERA in 88 2 /3 innings this year. They’ve given up 130 hits and 24 home runs, the kind of pitching that gives you no chance to win games and works the bullpen to death. It’s a long season, but it’s time to really start worrying; these are finesse guys, and sometimes finesse guys just lose it.

The thing of it is that you have maybe the best pitching prospect in baseball on your staff right now in 22-year-old Francisco Liriano. He’s a 6-foot-2-inch, 220-pound lefthander with a funky de livery and the best pure stuff of any lefty in baseball. His fastball sits at 94 and touches 98 with ridiculous movement, and he can spot it on three corners of the strike zone to both lefthanded and right-handed hitters.

That isn’t his best pitch, either – he also has an absurd slider that hits 90 and is indistinguishable from the fastball coming out of his hand, not to mention a decent change-up. He dominated Triple-A last year, and in 16 1/3 innings this year he’s struck out 24, walked four, and given up one home run while getting groundballs around 70% of the time. Outside of a five-run, three-inning stint in a game the Tigers won 18-1, he’s given up one run.

You’re eight games out; the Astros were 12.5 games out on June 1 last season and won the National League pennant. What do you do?

This sort of question is why being a general manager is hard. I don’t listen to much Minnesota sports radio, but I can’t imagine Sven from Burnsville is much happier about Kyle Lohse starting over Liriano than Mets fans would be about Victor Zambrano starting over him.

I can imagine that Liriano and his agent are exceptionally pleasant people to talk to right now if you’re in charge of the Twins. Surely skinflint owner Carl Pohlad would be delighted if you took Lohse or Silva out of the rotation in favor of someone who makes a tenth as much as either of them. And removing a guy from the rotation who’s pitched well for you for years because of a bad month will go over well with him.

Then take into account that in keeping Liriano in the bullpen you’re just abiding by one of the great Earl Weaver’s wisest dictums – “The place for a rookie pitcher is in long relief.” That’s how Santana was broken in; it gives a pitcher a chance to adjust to the majors with less pressure than that faced by a starter, experiment in blowouts without affecting the team’s record, earn some credibility with umpires, and rest his arm a bit after years of starting in amateur ball and the minors. It also gives everyone in the world a chance to tell you have no idea what you’re doing – which is, of course, just what they’d tell you if you put him right in the rotation and watched him blow out his arm or lose his confidence after getting shelled a few times.

I hope Ryan and manager Ron Gardenhire stick to their guns and leave Liriano in the bullpen. He’s an awesome talent, and he deserves the chance to spend a year giving his arm a bit of rest and learning on the job that Santana, Pedro Martinez, and many other top pitchers had early on in their careers. The Twins aren’t going anywhere anyway – their offense is atrocious and unlikely to improve enough to allow the team to contend even if Liriano pulls an “Iron Man” Joe McGinnity and takes over for Radke, Lohse, and Silva all at once.

That offense, not leaving Liriano in the role that’s likeliest to help him develop into a Cy Young-caliber starter, is Ryan’s real mistake. If anyone wants to spark a Minnesota controversy for Sven from Burnsville to crab about, that’s the place to start.

tmarchman@nysun.com


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