It’s never a good idea for anyone – be it fans, columnists, or team owners – to overreact to a bad start in baseball. The Yankees may have started the season 5-9, but it’s worth remembering that every playoff team save the Cardinals had a 14-game stretch like that in 2004.

While the wins and losses shouldn’t particularly worry anyone this early in the season, the way the Yankees have been playing should. It’s not as if reliable players like Derek Jeter and Hideki Matsui are sabotaging the team with poor starts; quite the opposite, in fact. Before the season, I, along with many others, pointed to several specific weaknesses that could wreck the team’s season, and all have contributed to the team’s poor performance.

The first area of concern in the Bronx was the newly renovated starting rotation. Spending a great deal of money on Randy Johnson, Carl Pavano, and Jaret Wright was no guarantee of quality pitching, and the trio of newcomers has not pitched well so far.

The concern with Johnson was that he is old and has a few black marks on his health record; his somewhat diminished velocity and tendency to leave the ball up are probably nothing to be overly concerned about, but he certainly hasn’t provided the Cy Young-level performance the Yankees are depending on. After his poor showing last night against the woeful Devil Rays – he was charged with six runs in 7 1/3 innings, giving up two homers to Eduardo Perez – he has a 5.47 ERA in 26 1/3 innings.

More worryingly, Pavano and Wright have lived down to expectations. The argument against Pavano was that the 18 wins and 3.00 ERA he boasted in 2004 were largely the result of his circumstances. Last year, he was pitching in an offense-dampening park in front of a fine defense in the National League; this year, he’s pitching in a pitcher-friendly park but in the DH league in front of an atrocious lot of fielders. He could post a 4.50 ERA even pitching as well as he did last year – which seems unlikely, given that it was by far his best season.

Pavano has been awful in three starts in 2005.His 3.86 ERA hides the fact that he’s given up 12 runs in 14 innings, largely the result of the 20 hits and three home runs he’s allowed. Those numbers will come down, but Pavano is going to give up many more hits this year than he did with the Marlins, and that’s going to show up on the scoreboard.

Wright is an even worse case; as well as he pitched for Atlanta, there is a long list of talented pitchers who have never approached the work they’ve done for Braves pitching coach Leo Mazzone. I liked his signing more than most people did, but the deal clearly carried the risk of Wright utterly imploding – he does, after all, boast a career ERA of 5.18. So far, Wright has looked every bit like he did before Mazzone laid hands on him: A clueless thrower aimlessly heaving fastballs, each harder than the last.

Without Pavano and Wright performing the way the team expects them to, this isn’t a very good rotation. Mike Mussina is still a good starter, but no longer an elite one, and Kevin Brown doesn’t look like a good bet to pitch 100 innings this year.

So it goes with the offense as well. The problems were easy to identify before a game was played: Tony Womack is not a major league-quality starter, Bernie Williams is at this point probably best used as a reserve, and Jorge Posada, 33, is at the age where catchers typically collapse. Sure enough, Womack and Williams have struggled badly, while Posada looks to have aged several years over the winter. All three will play better than they have, but that will be compensated for by the decline of Jason Giambi and Tino Martinez, who have surpassed expectations so far.

What may be worst of all for the Yankees is that there are no quick fixes in sight. Not only is the farm system barren, but this July is probably not going to see an especially active trade market. This year, an unusual number of teams look like genuine contenders, and those who don’t – the Pirates, Devil Rays, and Royals, for example – have few quality veterans of the kind the Yankees might want.

If the Brewers don’t contend (and they might), they could be willing to part with second baseman Junior Spivey or first baseman Lyle Overbay, both of whom are backed by quality prospects. But what exactly would the Yankees give up for such cheap, productive players? It’s not as if simply assuming their contracts would be enough. As for pitchers, the recent spate of long-term deals handed to middling starters could leave the Yanks looking at the likes of Brian Anderson and Mark Redman when it’s time to trade.

No, the 2005 Yankees will live and die with the team they have right now. And while you don’t want to overreact to a bad stretch, that team is looking increasingly like its worst-case scenario is coming true – no matter what it does against the hapless Devil Rays.