Uncertainty Reigns in N.L. East
This article is from the archive of The New York Sun before the launch of its new website in 2022. The Sun has neither altered nor updated such articles but will seek to correct any errors, mis-categorizations or other problems introduced during transfer.

There’s probably too much made of spring training. In the olden days when men were men, children didn’t talk back to their parents, skinflint owners paid players by the nickel, and information technology involved abacuses and back issues of The Sporting News, there was a real purpose in gathering up a team’s players in one place for six weeks. The players worked themselves into shape after winters spent driving trucks and drinking beer, and the manager got to see who could play.
These days, with even fringe ballplayers making more than enough money to dedicate themselves to training year-round, and with every team’s computers stuffed with all manner of scouting reports and statistical projections on every player in their camps, six weeks’ worth of spring training doesn’t make a lot of sense. Players come into camp more or less in shape, and while roles are up for grabs, most teams choose to give precedence to long track records, rather than Cactus League batting averages.
What makes increasingly little sense for teams, though, makes a great deal of sense for fans and the press, as we are provided both with an excuse to mull over some of the questions of the upcoming season, and tantalizing clues as to how those questions will be answered.
Of the six divisions, the National League East is probably the tightest. It’s possible to imagine every team even the Washington Nationals, winning the division flag; it’s also possible to imagine every team finishing last. With that in mind, here’s a look at some of the prime issues that could determine how things play out.
ATLANTA BRAVES The key issue for the Braves this spring has to do with pitching. Most obviously, they’re de pending on relief ace John Smoltz, who hasn’t been a regular starter in six years, to step back into the rotation and pitch 180 quality innings. The risk of in jury and ineffectiveness here is overblown – if the Braves have proven anything, it’s that they know pitching and I can’t see them making this move without being sure Smoltz can handle the additional workload.
Of more concern should be newly acquired ace Tim Hudson, who missed seven starts last year with hip problems that seem to result from the combination of his small stature and great arm speed. He may be unable to throw his excellent split-fingered fastball without causing himself harm; it’s also possible he’ll have to radically remake his pitching motion to prevent injury.
If anyone can help Hudson stay both durable and effective, it’s Braves pitching coach Leo Mazzone. Reports of Hudson experimenting with new pitches or mechanics should be watched closely. That may be the key to Atlanta’s success this year.
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES The issues to be resolved in Philadelphia are less concrete. For the last two years, they have had as much talent as any team in the game, but the results just haven’t been there. Most of the blame for that has gone – rightly, in my view – to former manager Larry Bowa and his coaches.
Bowa’s confrontational style and focus on what his players couldn’t do well, as opposed to what they could, clearly cost his team in the standings and may have stunted the growth of talented young players like Marlon Byrd and Pat Burrell. A good manager can’t make a mediocre team great, but a bad manager can make a great team mediocre, and that appears to be what Bowa did.
New manager Charlie Manuel offers a fresh start for the Phillies, but he has quite a few issues with which to deal. First among them may be a controversy at second base. Chase Utley, a 26-year-old who’s been ready for the big leagues for years, was promised the job over the winter, but that was before incumbent Placido Polanco unexpectedly accepted the team’s offer of salary arbitration.
Polanco is one of the better second basemen in the game, and he should probably start. Either way, it will be difficult for Manuel to both make everyone happy and put the best possible team on the field. How the new manager resolves the brewing controversy will be telling, and likely a good indicator of how he’ll deal with similar issues in the outfield and the rotation. If he strikes the proper balance, this team could be as deep as any club outside Boston; if he handles things badly, he could just end up being Larry Bowa with a grin rather than a scowl.
NEW YORK METS While the Braves have to deal with the health of veteran players and the Phillies need to adjust to a new manager, the Mets have to do both. I don’t think the health of the team is as much an issue as some people do, but I also take it for granted that the team won’t get much more than 700 at-bats out of Cliff Floyd and Mike Piazza.
I do think Willie Randolph has the potential to make an enormous impact on the Mets, and that’s because he will be managing Jose Reyes at a crucial point in the young shortstop’s career. Given his health, Reyes should at worst make a few All-Star Games and contend for a batting title in a few seasons. He can be much more than that, though, if he becomes a more selective hitter.
Reyes isn’t as undisciplined as people think – he has a good strikeout rate and 18 walks in 494 career at-bats, which is low but acceptable at this point in his career. In his case, though, the difference between walking 25 and 50 times a year could be the difference between a potential All-Star and a potential MVP. After all, the list of players who can contribute offensively while hitting for as little power as Reyes consists of only Ichiro Suzuki, Juan Pierre, Rafael Furcal, and Jason Kendall.
Randolph, who during his playing career walked 90 times a year to go with a good batting average, good middle infield defense, and excellent base running, has the perfect background to help Reyes take full advantage of his gifts. He may not transform him into “Camera Eye” Max Bishop, but Mets fans should look favorably upon any stories coming out of spring training that involve Randolph hectoring his shortstop about the strike zone or threatening to bat him eighth until he learns when not to swing.
FLORIDA MARLINS Among the many reasons to think the Marlins will make a run at the World Series this year is that they don’t have large, unresolved issues like the Braves, Phillies, and Mets. None of their stars need to reinvent themselves, none of their players is a Reyes-like enigma, and Jack McKeon runs the ship with a firm hand. Their main issue is one that afflicts every team: the health of their pitchers.
Young starters A.J. Burnett and Josh Beckett are quite capable of pitching 450 innings of 3.00 ERA baseball between them. But Burnett has thrown just 143 innings the last two years, and Beckett 298 2/3.
Neither pitcher seems a serious injury risk, however. Burnett is two years removed from Tommy John surgery and is, if anything, less at risk than other young pitchers; Beckett has been the victim of somewhat mysterious blister problems on his fingers that should be correctable. For Marlins fans, at least as far as these two go, no news this spring will be good news.
WASHINGTON NATIONALS Just as the Marlins have no large issues in camp, the Nationals look to be in fairly good shape heading into their first season in Washington, D.C. While their roster isn’t deep, they should be able to field a respectable lineup with some good young hitters in it; with a healthy Zach Day and Tony Armas and an effective Esteban Loaiza, they should have a perfectly decent rotation behind Livan Hernandez and Tomo Ohka.
In order to make a run at the wild card, though, the Nationals will need someone to surprise, and I nominate Nick Johnson. Yes, health is a skill, and no, Johnson doesn’t have it; despite all his woes, though, he’s a 26-year-old hitter who has at times displayed the ability to post a .450 on-base average, win a Gold Glove, and hit 25 home runs.
As J.D. Drew showed last year, sometimes injury-prone young players put it all together and make a run at an MVP award. I don’t expect it out of Johnson, but should he be hitting .750 at the end of March, I wouldn’t be surprised.
This is the first of a six-part series on baseball’s divisions. Tomorrow, the N.L. Central.