Entering yesterday’s games, the Boston Red Sox and Minnesota Twins were tied atop the American League’s wildcard standings, and another five teams were within five games of them in the standings. Counting the Baltimore Orioles and Los Angeles Angels, teams that have relatively slim leads in their divisions, nine teams are jockeying for three playoff spots. I’m not a fan of the wild card – I think it devalues pennant races and encourages mediocrity – but it surely is a good thing that fans of all but four of the league’s teams can root for the home nine knowing they have a legitimate shot at playing October baseball.

Leaving the Orioles and Angels aside, there are seven more or less legitimate contenders for the wild card. All have their flaws, and a few are a bad losing streak away from dropping out of the playoff picture, but for now they’re playing meaningful games, which is all you can really ask of the wildcard gimmick.

For my money, the team to beat is Minnesota, basically for two reasons: ace pitcher Johan Santana and first baseman Justin Morneau. Santana has pitched well this year – he’s 7-2 with a 3.45 ERA and a stunning 124/17 strikeout-to-walk ratio – but he hasn’t quite been dominant. Morneau, coming off a rookie season in which he hit 19 home runs in 280 at-bats, has been hit in the head with a pitch and come down with a minor elbow injury. His 2005 batting line of .274 BA/.330 OBA/.503 SLG is good, but he’s capable of carrying the team in the second half. Considering that the Twins already boast the fourth-best record in the league without any of their players having standout seasons, dominant stretches by Morneau and Santana could key the sort of hot run that would tie up a playoff spot for the three-time defending Central Division champions.

Boston isn’t a much worse bet than Minnesota, and may well be a better one. The Red Sox have gotten absolutely nothing out of the right side of the infield, Manny Ramirez is having the worst season of his career, and the pitching staff generally is a mess. Yet they’re only two games out in the East and lead the league in runs scored. I rate them behind the Twins because I find it a lot likelier that the young, healthy Santana will wreak havoc on the league in the second half than that the old, injured Curt Schilling will. Still, the looming return of the Boston ace and the fact that the team has clearly identified and addressed weaknesses in previous years are two excellent reasons to think the defending world champions will make another postseason run.

I’d like to say the team with the next-best chance to reach the playoffs is an underdog team like the Tigers or Blue Jays, but in truth it’s the Yankees. Taking park effects into account, they have the second-best offense in the league, and that’s with black holes like Tony Womack and Bernie Williams sucking the life out of rallies. As badly as they’ve played at times this year, the Yankees are still only three games out of the wild-card lead. Should they replace Womack with a real major league player, trade for a legitimate center fielder, or make any other of a number of obvious moves, they will seriously improve their chances of slugging their way into an 11th consecutive playoff appearance.

Texas, on the other hand, is a mirage. Kenny Rogers is not going to end the year with a 1.98 ERA, nor is Chris Young going to end it with a 3.16 ERA. David Dellucci will not end the year leading the AL in walks. Even with these completely unexpected performances, the Rangers only have the seventh best record in a 14-team league. Their advantage lies in the fact that they play in such a weak division – the Angels are quite catchable, and the Rangers can fatten their record by beating up on the miserable Athletics and Mariners. The idea that a weak team could sneak into the wild-card slot due to the weakness of its divisional rivals is yet another reason to hate the unbalanced schedule, but the Rangers do have a shot, even without Rogers doing his best Lefty Grove impression.

Right behind the Rangers you have two arguably superior teams whose chances are diminished more by the presence of the White Sox and Twins in their division than by anything else. Cleveland has garnered a great deal of attention for its recent nine-game winning streak, but this team is legitimate beyond the recent run. The Indians boast a strong bullpen and a solid five-man rotation, and the pitching stands a chance to be even better in the second half, as Jake Westbrook (4.57 ERA) and C.C. Sabathia (4.66) can improve on their average performances thus far. Perhaps most encouraging, the team had been getting some of the worst production in the game from catcher, third base, and right field until the recent winning streak; should they get even average hitting from those spots going forward, their chances of catching up in the race will improve greatly.

Detroit isn’t as deep and well rounded. But the Tigers have stayed in the race despite injury and ineffectiveness from their two best players, Ivan Rodriguez and Carlos Guillen. Both were legitimate MVP candidates last year, and they’re capable of driving a team that’s hung around the edges of the race due to a surprisingly strong offense forward in the standings.

Finally comes the one among these teams that I think has no shot at the playoffs: Toronto. This has more to do with their division than with the quality of the team – between Rookie of the Year candidates Aaron Hill and Gustavo Chacin, ace Roy Halladay, and veteran slugger Vernon Wells, this team has some serious talent. Playing the Orioles, Yankees, and Red Sox all through the second half, though, is no way to win. Put them in the West and they’d have a legitimate shot at both the division and the wild card. Is this unfair? Probably so, and something to think about next time you hear someone going on about the glories of a schedule that allows 72 Red Sox-Yankees matchups every year.